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Wednesday, September 16 · Rain-delay risk and HR boost at first pitch · tap a game for the 4-hour forecast
Today's MLB ballpark weather and how it shifts home run odds. Each game shows temperature, precipitation and rain-delay risk, plus wind speed and direction read against the park's orientation, so you can see which stadiums have wind blowing out and where warm air is adding carry before first pitch.
Retractable roof — conditions apply only if open
Retractable roof — conditions apply only if open
Retractable roof — conditions apply only if open
Retractable roof — conditions apply only if open
Wind blowing out toward the outfield helps fly balls carry and lifts home run odds, while wind blowing in knocks them down. A steady out-blowing wind of 10 mph or more can add several feet of carry, turning warning-track outs into home runs, especially to the pull side.
Yes. Warmer air is less dense, so a batted ball carries farther on a hot day than a cold one. Every ten degrees of extra warmth adds roughly two to three feet of fly-ball distance, which nudges borderline drives over the fence and raises home run odds across the park.
The cards above read each open-air ballpark's current wind speed and direction against the field orientation, then flag whether it helps or hurts home runs at first pitch. Domed stadiums are marked as neutral. Tap any game to see the four-hour forecast around game time.
Temperatures across the slate run from the upper 60s at Wrigley Field all the way up to 96 degrees at Globe Life Field, with Cincinnati sitting at 93 and St. Louis at 87. The most notable winds are the 14 mph gust blowing in at Coors Field and a 12 mph crosswind at Chase Field, though neither reading translates into a power boost for reasons covered below. The park where conditions line up best for home runs is Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The heat is real at 93 degrees, the outfield is small, and the model has it rated Strong Boost, making it the top spot on the board today. Globe Life Field in Arlington is also a Strong Boost, and the 96-degree air is legitimately thin and carry-friendly, but that 9 mph wind is a crosswind, and with a Low wind receptiveness rating the ballpark walls largely neutralize it anyway, so lean on the temperature doing the work there, not the wind. Busch Stadium and PNC Park both carry Slight Boost ratings in warm-to-hot air, and Nationals Park checks in the same way at 82 degrees. Daikin Park in Houston has a 7 mph wind with a slight outward read toward left, but with a None receptiveness rating the roof structure kills that carry effect entirely, so treat it as a warm-air park only. Same story at Rogers Centre, where a 6 mph wind out to center sounds nice but the roof earns it a None receptiveness grade, so ignore the wind there completely. Citi Field's 8 mph wind blowing out toward left at a Medium-receptive park is a modest real factor, though the model still lands at Neutral overall. At Target Field, a 6 mph wind is actually blowing in from left, a slight drag, so that offsets the otherwise comfortable playing conditions. Wrigley Field is the park to avoid. The wind is blowing in from center at 7 mph, Wrigley is rated Very High for wind receptiveness meaning every bit of that drag is felt, and the model reflects it with a Suppressed rating. Coors Field is also Suppressed, with a 14 mph wind blowing in from center at a High-receptiveness park, and a 23% precipitation chance means a delay is possible there. Chase Field has a 43% precip chance, making it the game most at risk for a delay or postponement, so keep an eye on that one before locking in any Arizona hitters. Tropicana Field is the dome on the slate and is completely weather-neutral.