How to use Propaholics for the NBA

Each prop is a card for one player and one market: points, rebounds, assists, threes, the combos (points + rebounds + assists and the two-stat versions), steals, blocks, steals + blocks, and turnovers. On it:

• Proj: our projected number for the stat itself (for example 24.6 points), built from his projected minutes and his per-minute production.
• Model: our probability he goes over the line.
• Market: the sportsbook consensus probability, with the vig removed so it is a fair comparison.
• Edge: Model minus Market. Green is a positive edge (we like the over more than the market does), red is negative. Real edges are small: a few points, not 15.
• Line: the prop line the numbers are graded at.

The colored hit cells show how often he has gone over that line in each window: his last 5, 10 and 20 games, each season, and H2H (against tonight's opponent). The defense squareshows how tonight's opponent ranks against his position in this stat (1 = toughest, 30 = softest). The small icons under the name are signals, explained at the bottom of this page.

• SMASH: a strong positive edge we are confident in.
• LEAN: a smaller positive edge, worth a look.
• PASS: no meaningful edge either way.
• FADE: the market is higher than our model, so the value is on the under.

Verdicts are a starting point, not a lock. They read our model against the market; they do not know about a late scratch, a minutes restriction, a coach's comment, or a read you trust. If your gut or your own data says otherwise, go with what you feel.

The Trusted only filter (and the count in the header) is a quality gate. A prop is trusted only when all of these hold: the projection has enough games behind it, the market price is not a longshot (implied probability at least 15%), and our raw number is not wildly off the market. A gap of 15 points or more usually means the model missed news, like a changed role, a trade, or a star coming back from injury, rather than a real edge. Trusted is separate from the verdict: a SMASH can be untrusted. Start with Trusted on, then explore.

Click any player to open a full breakdown:

• A prop card for the market you select, with model, market, edge, and line, plus a line stepper to shop alternate lines. The model percentage recomputes at every step.
• A game-log chart versus the line, with range cards (last 5 / 10 / 20, this season, last season, vs this opponent, home / away) and filters: home or away, rest days, starter or bench, minutes, win or loss, blowouts, opponent defense tier, and games with or without a teammate.
• Cards for minutes and shooting, shooting zones (where he shoots and where this defense is soft), shot types, play types, the opponent defense, his history against this opponent, teammate injuries, the depth chart, and season splits.

• Projections: every game with its projected score and each team's projected rotation (minutes and stat lines).
• Defense vs Position: rank every defense by what it allows to each position, stat by stat, over the season, the last 10 or the last 5 games. Free.
• Leaders: the top performers for the season, the last 10 days, and last night.
• Rosters: pick a team to see every one of its players with a prop tonight, and jump to any player's page.

Signals do not compute the verdict. They explain, at a glance, why a prop is interesting. Green signals support the over; ambersignals are cautions. A faded icon means a small sample, so read it with care. Role badges use last season's numbers until every team has played 10 games.

Maestro

Runs the offense: 10+ potential assists a game and at least 20% of his points as the pick-and-roll ball handler. Shows on assist markets.

Dimer

Pass-first: 8+ potential assists a game on 11 or fewer shots.

Volume Shooter

Takes 7+ threes a game. Shows on threes and scoring markets.

Glass Cleaner

13+ rebound chances a game (rebounds he was in position to grab). Shows on rebound markets.

Paint Beast

Half or more of his shots come in the paint (8+ a game), and he finishes there better than the league.

Hot streak

Cleared this exact line in 4+ straight games this season. Hidden until he has played 5 games this season.

Cold streakcaution

Stayed under this exact line in 4+ straight games this season. A caution on the over.

Zone exploit

His favorite shooting zone (35%+ of his shots) is one where tonight's opponent allows one of the highest field goal percentages.

Scheme edge

His main way of scoring (pick-and-roll, isolation, spot-ups and so on, 30%+ of his points) is one this defense gives up a lot of points per play on.

Soft DvP

Tonight's opponent ranks near the bottom of the league against his position in this stat. A soft spot.

Owns this matchup

Cleared this line in most of his past games against tonight's opponent (3+ meetings).

Early in the season, projections lean on last season's minutes and role, then blend toward this season as games are played. A player in a new role (traded, a starter back from injury) can look mispriced for the first week or two; that is what the Trusted filter is for. Injuries come from the public injury report, which can lag, so check status near tip.

For research and entertainment. Not betting or financial advice. Know your limits.