Monday Night Football Props: 3 Best Bets and a TD Scorer for Each Team (Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7)
By J.B. Wright·
First, how last week's Monday Night Football props did: 3-0. Terry McLaurin's longest catch was 27 yards against an over 20.5, and it came on his only catch before he left hurt in the 1st quarter. Antonio Williams had 50 receiving yards against an over 22.5, and George Kittle had 69 against an over 62.5. On the touchdown side, Kittle scored in the 1st quarter at +105, and McLaurin did not get the chance after his injury. The week before that, Monday went 0-3. I post both.
Monday Night Football gives us Cowboys at Eagles, and Dallas is the favorite on the road: 4.5 points, with a total of 44. That puts the Cowboys near 24 implied points and the Eagles near 20. Tanner McKee starts at quarterback for Philadelphia again, and the receiver room around him is thin: DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) are both out. Saquon Barkley is questionable with a hamstring. For Dallas, KaVontae Turpin (ribs) is out. Check the final report before you bet, especially on Barkley.
How I think this game plays out: Dallas throws, and Philadelphia has to throw back. Dak Prescott has thrown 41 or more passes in each of his last 4 games, and Philadelphia has given up 281, 331, and 317 passing yards to the last three quarterbacks it faced. On the other side, every quarterback who threw 29 or more passes against Dallas this year cleared 193.5 passing yards, and an Eagles team getting 4.5 points will be passing to keep up. That is the whole card: two quarterbacks over and the receiver who gets the most targets in the game.
One thing to know before you bet: all three props lean on the same script. If this turns into a shootout, they should all hit together. If Dallas gets ahead and runs out the clock, they are all in trouble together. I skipped the model's numbers this week, so these are research picks, each one run through my 9-step research process, with receiver alignment worked in. Bet them small and read the reasoning, not just the line.
Primetime Props
1. George Pickens Receiving Yards Over 61.5
DAL vs PHI·-113 @ DraftKings
11+ targets in 3 of his last 4 games
This is a volume bet. Pickens has gone over 61.5 receiving yards in 4 of 6 games this year (82, 75, 130, and 73) and in 6 of his last 10. The targets are the reason: 11, 13, and 11 in three of his last four games. The exception was Houston, where he saw 3 targets and still finished with 75 yards.
I will be straight about the matchup, because it is not a soft spot. This year only 1 of 6 WR2s cleared 61.5 against Philadelphia (Jalen Coker, 97). Pickens lines up outside on 92% of his routes, and against receivers lined up wide, Philadelphia is middle of the pack at 101 yards a game, 20th most. What does hold up: wide receivers who got 9 or more targets against the Eagles went over 61.5 in 4 of 7 games, including Puka Nacua (125) and Parker Washington (124).
So this pick is about the targets, not a weak defense. With Turpin out, there is one fewer receiver taking looks, and Prescott has thrown 41 or more passes in each of his last 4 games. Take 61.5 at -113 at DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetRivers. Some books are on a different number, so make sure you are betting 61.5.
McKee has made three starts since 2023, and he cleared this number in all three: 269 yards against the Giants in 2024, 241 against Washington last season, and 215 against Carolina this year. He threw 41, 40, and 45 passes in those games. His hit rate on the board looks worse because it counts relief appearances where he threw 3 or 4 passes.
The matchup is about volume, not a weak defense. Dallas allows 239 passing yards a game, 14th most, right around league average. But the quarterbacks who threw 29 or more passes against Dallas all went over 193.5: Jaxson Dart (230), C.J. Stroud (347), and Jordan Love (276). The two who stayed under threw 20 and 25 times in games their teams won.
That is why the spread matters. Philadelphia is getting 4.5 points at home, and if it falls behind, McKee throws 35 to 45 times. The risk is who he is throwing to: with Smith and Wicks out, it is Dallas Goedert, rookie Makai Lemon, and Darius Cooper. Volume should carry it. Take 193.5 at -111 at DraftKings.
Prescott has gone over 265.5 in 4 of 6 games this year (279, 276, 335, and 316), and the volume keeps climbing: 41, 45, 43, and 55 attempts in his last four games. The 55-attempt game against Green Bay is the warning: he still finished at 258, just under.
Philadelphia's pass defense has been trending the wrong way. It allows 254 passing yards a game, 7th most, and the last three quarterbacks it faced threw for 281 (Bryce Young), 331 (Trevor Lawrence), and 317 (Matthew Stafford), all over this line. Against Philadelphia specifically, Prescott has thrown for 374, 271, and 354 since 2023, with one miss at 188. That is 3 of 4.
This one pairs with Pickens. If Dallas is throwing, both should hit, and if Dallas builds a lead and runs in the second half, both are at risk. The Eagles' slot defense is a weak spot, too: it allows 93.7 yards a game to slot receivers, 5th most, and CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson both spend a lot of time there. Take 265.5 at -112 at DraftKings; most books are at -113 to -115.
One anytime touchdown pick for each side: the most likely scorer on Dallas, and a Philadelphia receiver whose role just got bigger.
1. Javonte Williams Anytime TD
DAL vs PHI·-159 @ BetRivers
Scored in 5 of 6 games, 8 TDs
The most likely scorer in the game, and the price shows it. Williams has scored in 5 of 6 games this year, 8 touchdowns in all, including 3 against Houston. He has 24 red-zone carries in 6 games, and he scored twice against Philadelphia last season.
Philadelphia has allowed 4 touchdowns to running backs this year, and it gives up 5.7 red-zone carries a game to them, 4th most. With Dallas implied for 24 points, Williams is the one finishing drives near the goal line. It is not plus money, so shop it: BetRivers has -159, and most books are at -170.
Cooper has 4 touchdowns in his last 4 games, including 2 against the Rams on 3 red-zone targets. He is listed as the fourth receiver, and DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are both out, so his snaps should go up.
Dallas gives up touchdowns to receivers lined up wide: 5 this year, 4th most, and Cooper runs 70% of his routes out there. Dallas has allowed 6 touchdowns to wide receivers in 6 games. He was blanked against Carolina last week on 2 targets, which is the risk. Shop it: BetMGM has +260, and most books are at +240.
The three props rolled into one ticket, priced at the best odds listed on each card. The touchdown picks are not included; bet those on their own. All three legs need a high-volume passing game, and the Pickens and Prescott legs are tied together, so they will tend to win or lose as a group. Research, not betting advice.
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FAQ
What is a player prop?
A player prop is a bet on one player's stats instead of the game result, like how many receiving yards a receiver gets or how many passing yards a quarterback throws for. You bet the over or the under on the line the sportsbook sets.
What is an anytime touchdown bet?
An anytime touchdown bet wins if the player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime. It pays the listed odds whether he scores once or three times.
Why are all three props tied to the passing game?
Because that is how I think this game plays out: Dallas throws a lot, and Philadelphia has to throw to keep up. Picks that depend on the same script are riskier together, so if you play the parlay, bet it smaller than you would bet each prop on its own.
Founder of Propaholics, builder of the prop model. Picks on Propaholics are graded honestly and tracked every week, so you can judge the model for yourself. See the full model track record.
