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How our game model's projected score has graded against the market and the final result: straight-up winners, against the spread, and totals over/under.
Propaholics NFL model track record: every game graded three ways against the closing line, straight-up winner, against the spread, and total over/under, plus how far the projected score landed from the final. Weeks 1-6 come from the original play-by-play-only model; from week 7 the projection blends our power ratings with the market line. The record is shown honestly, season by season.
108 games. Average projection error: 9.85 pts on the margin, 11.06 pts on the total. Pushes are excluded from win %.
| Date | Matchup | Final | Proj | Winner | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 26 | CAR @ GB | 19-27 | 21.8-26 | GB✓ | GB -3.5✓ | Over 47.5✗ |
| Date | Matchup | Final | Proj | Winner | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 26 | DAL @ PHI | 38-21 | 23.6-20.4 | DAL✓ | PHI +4.5✗ | Over 43.5✓ |
| Oct 25, 26 | CIN @ BAL | 35-13 | 24.5-22.5 | CIN✓ | BAL +3✗ | Over 46.5✓ |
| Oct 25, 26 | CLE @ TEN | 27-24 | 18.9-17.4 | CLE✓ | CLE -1.5✓ | Under 36.5✗ |
| Oct 25, 26 | DEN @ ARI | 30-16 | 24.1-20.2 | DEN✓ | ARI +4.5✗ | Under 44.5✗ |
| Oct 25, 26 | GB @ DET | 17-20 | 25.8-29.2 | DET✓ | GB +3.5✓ | Under 55.5✓ |
| Oct 25, 26 | IND @ MIN | 10-16 | 17.3-23.7 | MIN✓ | IND +6.5✓ | Under 41.5✓ |
| Oct 25, 26 | KC @ SEA | 3-20 | 20.2-23 | SEA✓ | KC +3✗ | Under 43.5✓ |
| Oct 25, 26 | LA @ LV | 35-21 | 26.1-22.7 | LA✓ | LV +3.5✗ | Under 49.5✗ |
| Oct 25, 26 | MIA @ NYJ | 28-25 | 18.2-21.7 | NYJ✗ | NYJ -3.5✗ | Over 39.5✓ |
| Oct 25, 26 | NYG @ HOU | 27-21 | 16.1-26 | HOU✗ | NYG +10✓ | Under 42.5✗ |
| Oct 25, 26 | PIT @ NO | 16-10 | 22.5-20.5 | PIT✓ | NO +3✗ | Under 43.5✓ |
| Oct 25, 26 | SF @ ATL | 20-29 | 25.9-23.5 | SF✗ | ATL +2.5✓ | Under 49.5✓ |
| Oct 25, 26 | TB @ CAR | 43-13 | 20.7-24 | CAR✗ | CAR -3✗ | Over 44.5✓ |
| Oct 22, 26 | NE @ CHI | 24-30 | 23.6-26.5 | CHI✓ | NE +3✗ | Under 50.5✗ |
| Date | Matchup | Final | Proj | Winner | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 26 | WAS @ SF | 17-23 | 22.9-30.6 | SF✓ | SF -7.5✗ | Over 51.5✗ |
| Oct 18, 26 | ARI @ LA | 18-16 | 20.3-30.3 | LA✗ | ARI +12.5✓ | Under 51.5✓ |
| Oct 18, 26 | BAL @ CLE | 10-13 | 24.2-17.3 | BAL✗ | BAL -3✗ | Over 39.5✗ |
| Oct 18, 26 | BUF @ LV | 33-30 | 29-19.7 | BUF✓ | BUF -5.5✗ | Under 53.5✗ |
| Oct 18, 26 | CAR @ PHI | 25-14 | 19.4-25.5 | PHI✗ | PHI +3✗ | Over 39.5✗ |
| Oct 18, 26 | CHI @ ATL | 31-23 | 22.7-23.2 | ATL✗ | ATL +1.5✗ | Under 51.5✗ |
| Oct 18, 26 | DAL @ GB | 13-23 | 24-30.6 | GB✓ | GB +1.5✓ | Over 53.5✗ |
| Oct 18, 26 | HOU @ JAX | 34-31 | 19.2-22.8 | JAX✗ | JAX -2.5✗ | Under 42.5✗ |
| Oct 18, 26 | LAC @ KC | 6-22 | 17.7-24 | KC✓ | LAC +7.5✗ | Over 41.5✗ |
| Oct 18, 26 | NO @ NYG | 34-27 | 20.4-22.4 | NYG✗ | NYG +1.5✗ | Under 46.5✗ |
| Oct 18, 26 | NYJ @ NE | 19-26 | 16.6-27 | NE✓ | NE -7.5✗ | Over 43.5✓ |
| Oct 18, 26 | PIT @ TB | 26-19 | 21.3-24 | TB✗ | TB +2.5✗ | Over 38.5✓ |
| Oct 18, 26 | TEN @ IND | 26-20 | 17.9-26.5 | IND✗ | IND -6.5✗ | Over 43.5✓ |
| Oct 15, 26 | SEA @ DEN | 14-17 | 19.6-20.5 | DEN✓ | DEN +2.5✓ | Under 40.5✓ |
| Date | Matchup | Final | Proj | Winner | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 26 | BUF @ LA | 37-34 | 26.9-28 | LA✗ | BUF +3.5✓ | Under 55.5✗ |
| Oct 11, 26 | BAL @ ATL | 30-23 | 25.8-22.8 | BAL✓ | BAL +3.5✓ | Over 44.5✓ |
| Oct 11, 26 | CHI @ GB | 7-31 | 24.2-26.2 | GB✓ | GB +1.5✓ | Over 46.5✗ |
| Oct 11, 26 | CIN @ MIA | 31-24 | 25.1-24.2 | CIN✓ | MIA +7P | Over 44.5✓ |
| Oct 11, 26 | CLE @ NYJ | 12-17 | 17.5-18.9 | NYJ✓ | CLE +2.5✗ | Under 38.5✓ |
| Oct 11, 26 | DEN @ LAC | 23-17 | 20.6-19.8 | DEN✓ | LAC +3.5✗ | Under 42.5✓ |
| Oct 11, 26 | DET @ ARI | 45-21 | 28-24.3 | DET✓ | ARI +5.5✗ | Under 55.5✗ |
| Oct 11, 26 | HOU @ TEN | 26-3 | 22.2-16.7 | HOU✓ | TEN +6.5✗ | Over 37.5✗ |
| Oct 11, 26 | IND @ PIT | 22-34 | 22.2-23.5 | PIT✓ | IND +3✗ | Over 41.5✓ |
| Oct 11, 26 | LV @ NE | 17-45 | 15.1-24.5 | NE✓ | NE -3.5✓ | Under 45.5✗ |
| Oct 11, 26 | MIN @ NO | 23-13 | 18.4-18.2 | MIN✓ | NO +2.5✗ | Under 41.5✓ |
| Oct 11, 26 | NYG @ WAS | 27-27 | 22.1-25.8 | WASP | WAS -3.5✗ | Over 41.5✓ |
| Oct 11, 26 | PHI @ JAX | 17-19 | 20.8-24.5 | JAX✓ | PHI +7.5✓ | Over 41.5✗ |
| Oct 11, 26 | SF @ SEA | 32-29 | 22.9-26.2 | SEA✗ | SEA -3✗ | Over 46.5✓ |
| Oct 8, 26 | TB @ DAL | 24-16 | 24.8-26.9 | DAL✗ | TB +9.5✓ | Over 49.5✗ |
| Date | Matchup | Final | Proj | Winner | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 26 | ATL @ NO | 45-24 | 19.5-21.9 | NO✗ | NO -1.5✗ | Under 47.5✗ |
| Oct 4, 26 | ARI @ NYG | 24-36 | 23.5-24.5 | NYG✓ | NYG +2.5✓ | Over 44.5✓ |
| Oct 4, 26 | DAL @ HOU | 34-30 | 20.5-25.2 | HOU✗ | HOU -3✗ | Under 48.5✗ |
| Oct 4, 26 | DEN @ SF | 14-24 | 23.1-26.5 | SF✓ | SF -3✓ | Over 48.5✗ |
| Oct 4, 26 | DET @ CAR | 26-32 | 27.7-22.8 | DET✗ | DET -4.5✗ | Under 52.5✗ |
| Oct 4, 26 | GB @ TB | 17-14 | 24.6-24.3 | GB✓ | TB +3P | Over 38.5✗ |
| Oct 4, 26 | IND @ WAS | 30-13 | 24.8-26.3 | WAS✗ | WAS +4.5✗ | Over 46.5✗ |
| Oct 4, 26 | JAX @ CIN | 22-17 | 25.1-24.6 | JAX✓ | JAX +2.5✓ | Under 51.5✓ |
| Oct 4, 26 | KC @ LV | 30-27 | 22.8-17.4 | KC✓ | KC -4.5✗ | Under 47.5✗ |
| Oct 4, 26 | LAC @ SEA | 23-30 | 15.7-23.8 | SEA✓ | SEA -7P | Under 42.5✗ |
| Oct 4, 26 | LA @ PHI | 24-20 | 23.6-23.7 | PHI✗ | PHI +3.5✗ | Over 42.5✓ |
| Oct 4, 26 | MIA @ MIN | 10-15 | 16.8-22.3 | MIN✓ | MIA +10✓ | Over 38.5✗ |
| Oct 4, 26 | NE @ BUF | 29-26 | 22.2-29.1 | BUF✗ | NE +7✓ | Over 49.5✓ |
| Oct 4, 26 | NYJ @ CHI | 12-23 | 17.9-27.7 | CHI✓ | CHI -3.5✓ | Over 43.5✗ |
| Oct 4, 26 | TEN @ BAL | 18-24 | 17.2-30.1 | BAL✓ | BAL -11.5✗ | Over 42.5✗ |
| Oct 1, 26 | PIT @ CLE | 24-27 | 18.6-17.7 | PIT✗ | CLE +2.5✓ | Under 38.5✗ |
| Date | Matchup | Final | Proj | Winner | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 26 | PHI @ CHI | 7-27 | 23.2-24 | CHI✓ | CHI +3.5✓ | Over 42.5✗ |
| Sep 27, 26 | ARI @ SF | 30-36 | 22.4-29.1 | SF✓ | ARI +7.5✓ | Over 48.5✓ |
| Sep 27, 26 | BAL @ DAL | 34-31 | 29.1-25.6 | BAL✓ | BAL -3P | Over 53.5✓ |
| Sep 27, 26 | CAR @ CLE | 18-21 | 18.7-19.4 | CLE✓ | CLE +2.5✓ | Under 41.5✓ |
| Sep 27, 26 | CIN @ PIT | 27-30 | 22.1-23.4 | PIT✓ | PIT +3.5✓ | Over 42.5✓ |
| Sep 27, 26 | HOU @ IND | 17-19 | 21-21.4 | IND✓ | IND +1.5✓ | Over 41.5✗ |
| Sep 27, 26 | KC @ MIA | 24-10 | 25-21.9 | KC✓ | MIA +10✗ | Over 45.5✗ |
| Sep 27, 26 | LAC @ BUF | 16-24 | 19.3-29.5 | BUF✓ | BUF -7✓ | Under 50.5✓ |
| Sep 27, 26 | LA @ DEN | 26-30 | 23.4-23.4 | LA✗ | LA +1.5✗ | Over 43.5✓ |
| Sep 27, 26 | LV @ NO | 35-27 | 14.9-21.5 | NO✗ | NO -3.5✗ | Under 43.5✗ |
| Sep 27, 26 | MIN @ TB | 23-16 | 19.3-20.8 | TB✗ | TB +1.5✗ | Under 42.5✓ |
| Sep 27, 26 | NE @ JAX | 6-35 | 22.1-23.4 | JAX✓ | NE +3✗ | Under 46.5✓ |
| Sep 27, 26 | NYJ @ DET | 24-31 | 17.8-29.5 | DET✓ | DET -7P | Under 49.5✗ |
| Sep 27, 26 | SEA @ WAS | 31-33 | 26-21.9 | SEA✗ | WAS +8.5✓ | Over 40.5✓ |
| Sep 27, 26 | TEN @ NYG | 7-12 | 19.6-24.9 | NYG✓ | NYG -2.5✓ | Over 37.5✗ |
| Sep 24, 26 | ATL @ GB | 35-14 | 19.1-26.7 | GB✗ | GB -4.5✗ | Over 43.5✓ |
| Date | Matchup | Final | Proj | Winner | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 26 | NYG @ LA | 6-28 | 20.9-28.6 | LA✓ | LA -6.5✓ | Over 47.5✗ |
| Sep 20, 26 | CAR @ ATL | 34-3 | 19.7-25 | ATL✗ | ATL +2.5✗ | Over 43.5✗ |
| Sep 20, 26 | CIN @ HOU | 20-6 | 19.4-24.4 | HOU✗ | HOU -3✗ | Under 45.5✓ |
| Sep 20, 26 | CLE @ TB | 23-19 | 15.6-22.9 | TB✗ | CLE +8.5✓ | Under 41.5✗ |
| Sep 20, 26 | GB @ NYJ | 20-17 | 27.1-20.2 | GB✓ | GB -3.5✗ | Over 44.5✗ |
| Sep 20, 26 | IND @ KC | 30-33 | 20.8-26 | KC✓ | IND +6✓ | Over 46.5✓ |
| Sep 20, 26 | JAX @ DEN | 13-20 | 21.2-23.2 | DEN✓ | JAX +2.5✗ | Under 45.5✓ |
| Sep 20, 26 | LV @ LAC | 26-14 | 14.2-21.8 | LAC✗ | LAC -6.5✗ | Under 43.5✓ |
| Sep 20, 26 | MIA @ SF | 13-35 | 21.4-27.9 | SF✓ | MIA +12.5✗ | Over 44.5✓ |
| Sep 20, 26 | MIN @ CHI | 9-3 | 19-22.8 | CHI✗ | MIN +4.5✓ | Under 46.5✓ |
| Sep 20, 26 | NO @ BAL | 24-17 | 18.4-27.1 | BAL✗ | BAL -8.5✗ | Under 45.5✓ |
| Sep 20, 26 | PHI @ TEN | 24-20 | 25.4-17.6 | PHI✓ | PHI -7✗ | Over 39.5✓ |
| Sep 20, 26 | PIT @ NE | 3-20 | 19-24.8 | NE✓ | NE -4.5✓ | Over 41.5✗ |
| Sep 20, 26 | SEA @ ARI | 31-7 | 24.6-21.4 | SEA✓ | ARI +3.5✗ | Over 40.5✗ |
| Sep 20, 26 | WAS @ DAL | 20-37 | 26.4-28.3 | DAL✓ | WAS +3.5✗ | Over 51.5✓ |
| Sep 17, 26 | DET @ BUF | 31-41 | 25.2-29.6 | BUF✓ | DET +5.5✗ | Over 54.5✓ |
| Date | Matchup | Final | Proj | Winner | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 26 | DEN @ KC | 10-31 | 21.7-22.6 | KC✓ | DEN +2.5✗ | Over 42.5✗ |
| Sep 13, 26 | ARI @ LAC | 26-14 | 20-24.4 | LAC✗ | ARI +8.5✓ | Under 47.5✓ |
| Sep 13, 26 | ATL @ PIT | 13-20 | 20.9-23.7 | PIT✓ | ATL +6.5✗ | Over 40.5✗ |
| Sep 13, 26 | BAL @ IND | 41-23 | 25.6-24.4 | BAL✓ | IND +3✗ | Over 48.5✓ |
| Sep 13, 26 | BUF @ HOU | 36-31 | 23.7-22.3 | BUF✓ | HOU +1.5✗ | Over 44.5✓ |
| Sep 13, 26 | CHI @ CAR | 59-37 | 24.9-21.7 | CHI✓ | CHI -3✓ | Under 47.5✗ |
| Sep 13, 26 | CLE @ JAX | 10-34 | 14.4-22.6 | JAX✓ | CLE +8.5✗ | Under 40.5✗ |
| Sep 13, 26 | DAL @ NYG | 20-28 | 24.4-25.7 | NYG✓ | NYG +3✓ | Over 47.5✓ |
| Sep 13, 26 | GB @ MIN | 22-39 | 22.5-20.9 | GB✗ | GB +1.5✗ | Under 46.5✗ |
| Sep 13, 26 | MIA @ LV | 13-27 | 21.2-18.9 | MIA✗ | MIA +3✗ | Under 40.5✓ |
| Sep 13, 26 | NO @ DET | 30-31 | 18.6-26.9 | DET✓ | DET -7✗ | Under 49.5✗ |
| Sep 13, 26 | NYJ @ TEN | 23-10 | 19.4-22.1 | TEN✗ | TEN -1.5✗ | Over 39.5✗ |
| Sep 13, 26 | TB @ CIN | 27-33 | 24.6-25.6 | CIN✓ | TB +3.5✗ | Under 50.5✗ |
| Sep 13, 26 | WAS @ PHI | 22-24 | 20.6-28 | PHI✓ | PHI -6✗ | Over 43.5✓ |
| Sep 10, 26 | SF @ LA | 27-7 | 23.5-29.3 | LA✗ | LA -3.5✗ | Over 47.5✗ |
| Sep 9, 26 | NE @ SEA | 10-13 | 20.1-23.6 | SEA✓ | SEA -3P | Under 44.5✓ |
The cards at the top show the model's straight-up winner record, its against-the-spread record, and its over/under record, plus the average error between the projected and actual score. It covers every game this season and grows each week.
The closing spread and total from the market, and the actual final score. The winner pick is graded straight up. The spread pick is graded against the closing number, and the total pick against the closing total, with pushes excluded from the win percentage.
Not consistently. Through week 6 the play-by-play-only version did not beat the closing spread or total, so from week 7 the projection blends our power ratings with the market line, which makes its win chances more honest. Beating the closing spread is the hardest benchmark there is. The record here is shown honestly so you can judge it for yourself.
Weeks 1-6 are locked exactly as the original model picked them, so later model changes can never rewrite them. From week 7, each game is graded from the pre-game power ratings blended with the closing line, refreshed as new games finish.