New here? Get a 7-day free trial.Full access to every number and matchup. Then $15/mo or $110/yr, cancel anytime.Start free trial →
Who scores in this game. Every defense concedes touchdowns unevenly, by position and in the red zone. Pick a game to see how each side's defense holds up, then the likeliest TD scorers.
Updated
NFL anytime touchdown matchups for this week: the likeliest TD scorers in every game, ranked against how each defense allows touchdowns by position and in the red zone. The first two games are a free sample, with the defense grids and each team's No. 1 projected scorer shown in full. A free account unlocks every game, every projected scorer, the model's touchdown probability, and the edge over the posted odds.
| Pos | TD | Rec TD | Rush TD | Rec Yd/G | Rush Yd/G | RZ Tgt | RZ Car |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 25#1 | 17#1 | 8#10 | 232.3#19 | 126.3#10 | 32#12 | 45#6 |
| RB | 7#9 | 2#5 | 5#12 | 31.4#21 | 99.3#12 | 6#7 | 35#6 |
| WR | 10#2 | 10#2 | N/A | 141.1#20 | N/A | 14#21 | N/A |
| TE | 5#5 | 5#5 | N/A | 59.7#11 | N/A | 12#6 | N/A |
| QB | 2#5 | N/A | 2#5 | N/A | 19.6#9 | N/A | 4#21 |
| Pos | TD | Rec TD | Rush TD | Rec Yd/G | Rush Yd/G | RZ Tgt | RZ Car |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 21#7 | 12#8 | 9#4 | 232.4#18 | 145.7#1 | 29#19 | 52#2 |
| RB | 9#6 | 2#7 | 7#5 | 22.7#25 | 106.6#5 | 3#24 | 41#4 |
| WR | 7#9 | 7#9 | N/A | 163.1#9 | N/A | 18#13 | N/A |
| TE | 3#17 | 3#17 | N/A | 46.6#19 | N/A | 8#15 | N/A |
| QB | 1#15 | N/A | 1#15 | N/A | 32.0#1 | N/A | 9#4 |
The model's No. 1 scorer for each team in this game. Unlock every projected scorer, the model TD%, and the edge over the price with an account.
4.1 RZ carries/g, top 1% at RB in red-zone usage. Workhorse: 15.7 carries/g, top 5% at RB. Scored in 5 straight games. His team is implied for 31 points this game, a high-scoring spot. ARI allowed the most RB1 TDs last season (16: 13 rush, 3 rec) and the 9th-most this year (5 in 7 games), and they concede the most RB1 red-zone carries (3.6/g). Roughly fair at -235.
2.3 RZ targets/g, top 1% at TE in red-zone usage. DAL allowed the 6th-fewest TE1 TDs last season (2 TDs) and the 15th-most this year (2 in 7 games), though they concede the 9th-most TE1 red-zone targets (0.8/g). Roughly fair at -105.
Defense figures are 2026 regular season, by position. TD / Rec TD / Rush TD / RZ columns are season totals; Rec Yd/G and Rush Yd/G are per game. Rank 1 (green) allows the most to that position (softest matchup); red allows the least. Projected scorers use the anytime-TD model. For research, not betting advice.
Pick a game and we show how each defense concedes touchdowns, by position and in the red zone, then the likeliest scorers. Scorers are ranked by the model's touchdown probability, which already accounts for the matchup: this game's Vegas team total and whether the defense leaks more rushing or receiving TDs.
The two grids rank all 32 defenses by TDs and red-zone volume allowed to each position. Green means a defense allows the most to that spot (the softest matchup for a scorer); red allows the least. Figures are the prior full season by position.
The first two games on the slate are a free sample: their defense grids plus the model's No. 1 projected scorer for each team, shown in full. Every other game, and the rest of each game's scorers, model probabilities, and edges, unlock with an account. A free account starts a 7-day trial.
It is the opportunity a defense concedes inside the 20: red-zone carries allowed to running backs, red-zone targets allowed to receivers and tight ends, per game. High red-zone volume plus high TDs allowed is the softest scoring matchup a defense can offer.
The slate and odds refresh through the week as books post and move lines, and the model regenerates on each data pull. The defense grids use full-season data by position. Figures are for research, not betting advice.
