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Same-game stacks priced with our correlation model. Legs in a game move together (a QB's passing yards and his receiver's yards rise together), so the true odds of a stack are shorter than multiplying each leg as if independent. We show both: the correlated fair price and the naive independent one. The gap is what a book or pick'em site leaks when it prices the legs as independent.
NFL correlated same-game parlays for this week: QB and pass-catcher stacks and TD stacks, each priced with our correlation model so the true correlated odds show next to the naive independent price. A few fully-priced sample slips are free; the picks, model odds, correlated fair price, and pick'em EV on the rest of the slate unlock with an account.
A same-game parlay stacks multiple props from one game. Because those legs move together, a QB's passing yards and his receiver's yards rise on the same drives, the true odds of the stack are shorter than multiplying each leg as if it were independent. We price the correlated fair odds and show the gap vs the naive independent price.
Each leg's probability comes from our player-prop model, the same numbers as the board. We then simulate the legs together with a correlation model to get the joint probability, convert it to fair American odds, and compare it to the naive independent product. The lift is how much the correlation shortens the price.
Pick'em sites (PrizePicks, Underdog) pay a fixed power-play multiplier when every leg hits. We take our joint probability, multiply by that payout, and subtract the stake to get the expected value. A positive EV means our model thinks the slip clears the payout's breakeven; most power plays are negative by design.
A few fully-priced sample slips are free to view, with their players, markets, lines, correlated odds, and pick'em EV. The picks and prices on the rest of the slate unlock with an account.