How to use Propaholics

Each prop is a card with a projected number, three probabilities, and a verdict:

• Proj: our projected number for the stat itself (for example 4.8 receptions or 62 rushing yards), so you can see the raw expectation behind the probability.
• Model: our probability the bet hits (the over, or a yes for anytime TD).
• Market: the sportsbook consensus probability, with the vig removed so it is a fair comparison.
• Edge: Model minus Market. Green is a positive edge (we like it more than the market does), red is negative.
• Line: the prop line the numbers are graded at.

The colored hit cells (L10, L5, 2025, 2026, H2H) show how often the player has gone over that line in each window, and the defense chip shows how the opponent ranks against this market and position (1 = toughest, 32 = softest). The small icons under the name are signals, explained at the bottom of this page.

• SMASH: a strong positive edge we are confident in.
• LEAN: a smaller positive edge, worth a look.
• PASS: no meaningful edge either way.
• FADE: the market is higher than our model, so the value is on the other side (the under, or against the bet).

Verdicts are a starting point, not a lock. They read our model against the market; they do not know about a late scratch, a weather swing, a beat writer's note, or a read you trust. If your gut or your own data says otherwise, go with what you feel.

The Trusted filter (and the count in the header) is a quality gate. A prop is trusted only when all of these hold: the projection has medium-or-better confidence (enough usage behind it), the market price is not a longshot (implied probability at least 15%), the edge is not implausibly large (under 15 points, which early season is usually a stale-role artifact rather than a real edge), and the player is active. Trusted is separate from the verdict: a SMASH can be untrusted if, say, it is a longshot. Start with Trusted on, then explore.

Click any player to open a full breakdown:

• A prop card for the market you select in the game-log tabs, showing model, market, edge, and line.
• A line stepper above the chart. Nudge the line up or down by 0.5 to shop alternate lines. The model percentage recomputes at every step; the market percentage and edge appear wherever a book actually posts that line.
• A game-log chart versus the line, with a dashed prop line and an amber average line that both move with the window (2025, L10, L5, H2H) and the venue and filter controls. Green bars cleared the line, red missed. The volume behind each game is printed under the bar.
• A signals panel, four pillars (opportunity, quality, matchup, environment as percentiles versus position), a coverage matrix for receiving markets, an opponent history table, and an opponent defensecard (including rush yards, attempts, and red-zone carries allowed to the player's specific role, like RB1 versus RB2).

• Projections: per-game view with implied team totals, the total and spread, a defense-versus-position cheat sheet, and a projected box score(each team's players with their model stat lines).
• Parlays: same-game stacks priced with our correlation model. Legs in one game move together (a quarterback's passing yards and his receiver's yards rise together), so a stack's true odds are shorter than multiplying each leg as if independent. We show the correlated fair price next to the naive independent one, plus a pick'em EV read.
• Defense: rank every defense by what it allows (rushing, passing, by direction, by position).
• Coverage: each defense's coverage-shell diet and man/zone split.
• Leaders: weekly top performances by category.

Signals do not compute the verdict. They explain, at a glance, why a prop is interesting. Greensignals support the model's side; amber signals are cautions. A faded icon means a small sample, so read it with care.

Exploits a side

The player's busiest side of the field (left, middle, or right) is exactly where this defense gives up the most. The arrow points to that side.

Funnel matchup

The opponent ranks in the bottom 8 against this market and position. A soft spot.

Owns this matchup

Strong head-to-head history: cleared the line in most past meetings with this opponent.

Red-zone magnet

Top-tier red-zone workload (carries for backs, targets for pass catchers). The sharpest anytime-touchdown tell.

Hot streak

Cleared the line in several straight games.

High floor

Regularly clears the line with low game-to-game variance. A steady play.

Shootout spot

High implied team total: a fast-scoring game environment that lifts everyone's props.

Bellcow

Workhorse running back with a dominant share of his team's carries.

Dual-threat back

A back who also earns real work in the passing game.

Alpha

Commands a dominant share of his team's targets.

Deep threat

High yards per catch: a big-play threat who piles up yards in chunks.

Sure hands

Reliable catch rate, which supports receptions props.

Coverage-beater

Strong yards per route run against the coverage shells this defense runs most.

Gunslinger

High-volume passer who throws it a lot.

Dual-threat QB

A quarterback who runs it himself for meaningful rushing yards.

Efficient passer

High touchdown rate among quarterbacks.

Boom or bustcaution

High variance. A ceiling play, not a reliable floor. Treat as a caution.

Low-total gamecaution

Low implied team total: a slow-scoring environment that caps upside. A caution.

Projections lean on last season's usage until the current season banks enough games, then blend toward live data. Team, role, and matchup reflect the current roster. Injuries and inactives (including exempt, reserve, and retired players) are hidden from the board when the feeds report them, but free data lags real transactions, so check status near kickoff. A few markets, like longest rush, only appear once books post lines for them.

For research and entertainment. Not betting or financial advice. Know your limits.