My 8 Favorite NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 7 (One Lean, Three Passes, Four Fades)

This is the one pick on the card the model is with me on: 28.9% against a 26.5% market, a LEAN. Harvey has scored in just 1 of 5 games this season, but it came last week against Seattle. As a rookie last year he scored in 9 of 17 games, 12 touchdowns, including a 3-touchdown game against Dallas. This is his first game against Arizona.

Arizona is the best matchup a running back can draw right now. The Cardinals allow 5.7 red-zone carries a game to backs, the most in the league, and they have given up 5 touchdowns to the position in 6 games. Jahmyr Gibbs ran it 9 times in the red zone against them in Week 5 and scored twice. Last year it was even worse: 22 touchdowns allowed to running backs, and 7 of those went to backs who were not the starter. That last part matters, because Harvey is the RB2.

His role this year is a little different. He is only getting 2 to 7 carries a game, but he has made up for it as a receiver, with 4, 7, 10, 1, and 4 targets. The trigger I watch is red-zone work: when Harvey gets 2 or more red-zone touches (carries plus targets), he has scored in 8 of 11 games since he came into the league. Tyler Badie is out and Jonah Coleman is questionable, so there are fewer backs to share those touches with. The risk is the small carry count. At +290 in the best RB matchup on the board, I will take it.

The model has him at 42.5% against a 45.7% market, a small FADE. It likes him, it just thinks +120 is a little short. Kittle has scored in 4 of 6 games this season. He is 0 for 1 against Atlanta, but that game does not tell us much: he had 2 targets and no red-zone looks.

Atlanta has been giving tight ends a lot of work. The Falcons have allowed 4 touchdowns to tight ends this year, all to TE1s, and they give up 8.5 targets and 2.5 red-zone targets a game to the position. Kittle also has the second biggest red-zone share on the 49ers, behind only Christian McCaffrey, and San Francisco is implied for 26 points.

The trigger: when Kittle gets 6 or more targets with 2 red-zone looks, he is 2 for 2 this season and 10 of his last 12. Against NFC teams with that same volume, he is 9 for 9. Alignment lines up too. Atlanta has allowed 3 touchdowns to tight ends lined up inline, and 4 of his 5 touchdowns this year have come from there. This is one of my favorites on the card.

Our 9-step read strongly favors him scoring. The model's price is a separate question, and it calls this a PASS: 21.6% against a 23.4% market, so it thinks +360 is close to fair. It is not against him, it just does not see extra value. I do. Gesicki has scored in all 4 of his games this season. The head-to-head is the knock: he is 0 for 4 against Baltimore since he got to Cincinnati.

Baltimore has allowed 3 touchdowns to tight ends this year, all of them to TE1s. They give up about 6 targets and 1 red-zone target a game to the position, which is right in Gesicki's range. When he gets 5 to 6 targets with 1 to 2 red-zone looks, he has scored in 4 of 9 games. The honest risk: with that same volume in division games, he is 0 for 2.

The slot is my main angle here. Baltimore has allowed 4 touchdowns to players lined up in the slot this year, and Gesicki has scored 3 of his touchdowns from the slot. At +360, he is the longest price on the card, and he has scored in every game he has played this year.

Our 9-step read strongly favors him scoring. On price, the model calls it a PASS: 42.2% against a 44.6% market, so it sees +135 as about fair. Collins has scored in 2 of 4 games this season, and this is his first game against the Giants.

New York has been easy to score on for receivers. The Giants have allowed 7 touchdowns to wide receivers in 6 games, more than 1 a game, and the scoring has been spread out: 3 different WR1s have scored (CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams twice, and Chris Olave), and so have WR2s and a WR3. They are soft in the red zone too, allowing 3.5 red-zone targets a game to receivers. On his own side, Collins has the third biggest red-zone target share on the Texans. David Montgomery, who is second, is out, so more of those looks should go to Nico.

The trigger: when he sees 7 or more targets and at least 1 red-zone target, he is 2 for 2 this season, 6 of his last 10, and 9 of his last 12 at home. This game is in Houston. Alignment is the last piece: the Giants have allowed 6 of those 7 touchdowns to receivers lined up wide, and Collins runs 83% of his routes out wide, with 3 touchdowns from there this year. The risk is the game script. Houston is a 10.5-point favorite, and if they get way ahead, they may just run the ball.

The model and the market land in the exact same spot, 44.4%, so it is a PASS. No edge either way. Dobbins has scored in 2 of 6 games this season, but both came in his last two games (Chargers and Seahawks), and he had 5 red-zone carries in the first one. Last year in Denver he scored in 4 of his 10 games. He is 0 for 1 against Arizona.

Same matchup as Harvey, and it is the best one on the board for a running back. Arizona allows 5.7 red-zone carries a game to backs, the most in the NFL, and 4 of the 5 touchdowns it has given up to backs this year went to the starter. Denver is a 4.5-point road favorite, implied for 24 points, so the script should keep the ball on the ground late.

The trigger is simple: when Dobbins gets 3 or more red-zone carries, he has scored in 7 of 11 games since 2023 (4 of 7 in Denver). He averages 2 red-zone carries a game, and Arizona hands out almost 6 to the position, so the chances should be there. The risk is the split with Harvey near the goal line. I am fine having both of them, because this defense has room for two.

Our 9-step read strongly favors him scoring. The model's badge is about price, and it has him at 54.5% against a 57.5% market, a small FADE. It still thinks he scores more often than not, it just does not love -125. Amon-Ra has scored in 3 of 5 games this season, 5 touchdowns total. Against Green Bay he is 2 for 6.

Green Bay has been tough on receivers so far: it has allowed only 4 touchdowns to wide receivers this season. But they give up the volume. The Packers allow 3.5 red-zone targets a game to receivers and about 9 targets a game to WR1s. Amon-Ra has the second biggest red-zone target share on the Lions, and Detroit is implied for 28.5 points, the highest team total on this card.

The trigger: when he gets at least 6 or 7 targets (and I expect more) with 2 or more red-zone looks, he is 3 for 5 this season, 6 of his last 10, and 15 of his last 20. In division games with that volume, he is 4 for 5. Green Bay has allowed 3 touchdowns out wide and 2 from the slot. Amon-Ra has 4 of his touchdowns from out wide and 1 from the slot, but he can line up anywhere and get his. The price is the only thing I do not love.

Our 9-step read strongly favors him scoring, even though the model fades the price again, 38.8% against a 43.2% market. Last week he did not score against Dallas, but I am going back to him. Watson has scored in 4 of 6 games this season, 6 touchdowns total, and he is 3 for 5 against Detroit.

Detroit has given up 5 touchdowns to receivers in 5 games, about 1 a game, and 3 of them went to WR1s. The Lions also give up about 11 targets a game to WR1s. When Watson gets at least 7 targets and 1 red-zone look, he is 3 for 3 this season and 5 of his last 9.

Alignment works in his favor. Detroit has allowed 3 touchdowns out wide and 4 from the slot. Watson has 5 of his 6 touchdowns this year from the slot and 1 from out wide, so both of his spots are open. This game has the biggest total on the slate at 53.5, and I want a piece of it.

Our 9-step read strongly favors him scoring, even though the model fades the price, 33.9% against a 37.7% market. His own season has been quiet: Kraft has scored in just 1 of 6 games. But he is 3 for 5 against Detroit, and the matchup is the reason he is here.

Detroit has allowed 9 touchdowns to tight ends this season, the most in the league, in only 5 games. That is almost 2 a game. Four of them went to TE1s, and TE1s are averaging about 8 targets a game against them. When Kraft gets at least 6 targets and 2 red-zone looks, he is 1 for 1 this season and 6 of his last 8.

Detroit has given up 6 of those touchdowns to tight ends lined up inline. Kraft only has 1 inline touchdown this year, but last year he had 5 from there. The risk is that his volume has been up and down. This is a pure matchup bet against the worst defense in the league for tight ends.