My 5 Favorite NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 8 (One Lean, Three Passes, One Fade)
By J.B. Wright·
These are my five favorite anytime touchdown scorer bets for NFL Week 8. Last week's card went 4 for 8: RJ Harvey, Mike Gesicki, J.K. Dobbins, and Tucker Kraft all scored, while George Kittle, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Christian Watson got shut out. This week I built the card a little differently. I started with 13 players I liked and ran every one of them through the same 9-step process I use for all my props, plus our alignment chart for the pass catchers. The five that came out on top are mostly the guys who get the ball near the goal line against defenses that let backs score. My model leans on one of them, James Cook. It calls three a PASS (Derrick Henry, Bucky Irving, and Kyren Williams), meaning it thinks the price is about fair, and it fades one, Jake Ferguson, by 3 points.
That is the whole point of showing both numbers. When the badge says FADE, the model thinks the odds are too short for the chance the player scores. When I disagree, I tell you exactly why: red-zone role, the defense's weak spot, or where the player lines up. Four of these five are favorites, so the prices are short this week. Bet them small and read the reasoning, not just the badge.
Anytime Touchdown Picks
1. James Cook Anytime TD
BUF vs BAL·-159 @ CaesarsLEAN
Model 64% vs market 62%
This is the one pick on the card the model is with me on: 63.6% against a 61.7% market, a LEAN. Cook has scored in 5 of 6 games this season, 6 touchdowns total, and he has scored in 5 straight. Last year he had 14 touchdowns in 9 of 17 games. Against Baltimore he is 1 for 2, and the one he hit was the opener last season.
This game has the biggest total on the slate at 54.5, and Buffalo is a 3-point home favorite implied for 28.8 points. That is a lot of trips inside the 20. Baltimore is middle of the pack against backs: 6 touchdowns allowed to running backs in 7 games this year (13th most) and 16 last year (also 13th). The Ravens give up 4.7 red-zone carries a game to backs, 9th most in the league.
The trigger I watch is red-zone work. Cook has gotten 36% of Buffalo's red-zone plays this year, with 8 chances inside the 5, and his red-zone looks by game are 3, 5, 3, 4, 5, 4. When he gets 4 or more, he is 4 for 4 this season and 17 of 21 since 2023. The honest risk is Josh Allen, who has 7 carries inside the 5 himself and can steal one at the goal line. Cook is my anchor.
The model and the market land in the exact same spot, 69.7%, so it is a PASS. No edge either way, it just agrees he is likely to score. Henry has scored in 5 of 7 games this season, 8 touchdowns total. Against Buffalo he has scored 2 touchdowns in each of his last 2 games.
Same game as Cook, and the other side is even better for a back. Buffalo has allowed 9 touchdowns to running backs in 6 games, the 2nd most in the league, after giving up 21 last season (3rd most). The Bills allow 4.7 red-zone carries a game to backs, and Baltimore is implied for 25.8 points.
Nobody on this card owns his team's red zone like Henry does. He has 51% of Baltimore's red-zone plays this year and 15 chances inside the 5. When he gets 4 or more red-zone looks, he has scored in 15 of 20 games as a Raven, and 4 of 6 this year. The risk: he has been blanked the last 2 weeks with only 4 red-zone carries in each, and -225 does not leave much room. I am fine laying it in this matchup.
The model calls it a PASS, 50.5% against a 52.9% market, so it sees -105 as close to fair. Irving has scored in 3 of 7 games this season, but he has 5 touchdowns, with 2 in Week 5 at Dallas and 2 more last week at Carolina. Against Atlanta he is 1 for 4.
Atlanta has been one of the easiest teams in the league for backs this year: 10 touchdowns allowed to running backs in 7 games, 4th most. That is a big change from last year, when they ranked 22nd. Tampa Bay is a 2.5-point home favorite in a 43.5 total, so this sets up as a game where the Bucs lean on the run.
His workload is trending the right way. His carries have gone 15, 16, 21, 19, 24 over the last five games, and he has gotten 38% of Tampa's red-zone plays this year. The trigger: when he gets 4 or more red-zone looks, he is 2 for 2 this season and 8 of 10 since 2023. He had 7 red-zone carries in both games he scored twice. The risk: in his 4 games without a touchdown, he only had 2 or 3 red-zone looks each.
The model calls it a PASS, 57.2% against a 58.8% market, so it sees -136 as about fair. Kyren has scored in 5 of 7 games this season, 6 touchdowns total, after 13 touchdowns in 10 of 17 games last year. This is his first game against the Chargers.
The Rams are 6.5-point home favorites implied for 25.8 points, and the game is indoors at SoFi. The Chargers have gotten worse against backs: 7 touchdowns allowed to running backs in 6 games this year (8th most) after ranking 25th last season. They also give up 5.5 red-zone carries a game to backs, 6th most in the league.
Kyren gets 31% of the Rams' red-zone plays, and his trigger is the cleanest on this card. When he gets 3 or more red-zone looks, he is 5 for 5 this season and 32 of 40 since 2023. The two games he did not score this year, he had 2 red-zone looks and 1. With a defense handing out 5.5 red-zone carries a game, I expect him to clear 3 again.
The model fades him, 29.6% against a 32.3% market, and I get why. Ferguson has scored in 2 of 7 games this season (2 touchdowns against Washington, 1 against Baltimore), and nothing in the 4 games since. Last year he scored in 6 of 17 games, 8 touchdowns. He is 0 for 2 against Arizona. This is the plus-money pick on the card, and it is a matchup bet.
Arizona is one of the worst teams in the league against tight ends. The Cardinals have allowed 6 touchdowns to tight ends in 7 games this year (5th most) and gave up 11 last year (4th most). They also allow 1.7 red-zone targets a game to the position, 7th most. Dallas is a 7-point home favorite implied for 30.8 points, the highest team total on the slate, in a dome with a 54.5 total.
Alignment is where this one really lines up. Arizona has allowed 6 touchdowns to players lined up in the slot (3rd most in the NFL) and 4 to players lined up inline (4th most). Ferguson runs 96 of his routes from the slot and 71 inline, and all 3 of his touchdowns came from those two spots. When he gets at least 1 red-zone target, he has scored in 2 of 4 games this year. The honest risk is volume: he has only 5 red-zone targets all season and 1 target last week. At +240 against this defense, I will take the shot.
My five favorites rolled into one ticket, for anyone who wants to take the whole card as a single swing. This is the naive multiplied price at the best odds listed on each card, and Cook and Henry are in the same game, so treat the number as a lottery ticket, not a core bet. Research, not betting advice.
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FAQ
What does anytime touchdown scorer mean?
An anytime touchdown scorer bet wins if your player scores a touchdown at any point in the game, rushing or receiving. It does not matter when they score or how many they score. One touchdown cashes the bet.
Does a passing touchdown count as an anytime touchdown?
No. For a quarterback, an anytime touchdown means he has to run one in or catch one himself. Passing touchdowns do not count toward an anytime TD scorer bet, which is why QBs are usually long odds unless they run often.
Why are you backing picks your own model grades as a fade?
The model prices every player off usage and matchup history, but it cannot see everything a film and injury read can, like a specific coverage scheme, a banged-up secondary, or a role change. When my read disagrees with its number, I show both and explain why. The FADE badge is the model's honest opinion, not a hidden one.
How accurate are these anytime touchdown picks?
Every pick is graded and we track how the model does over time. These are plus-money longshots by nature, so judge them over a full season rather than a single week. The model's exact number is shown on every card, including where I overrule it, so you can weigh the reasoning for yourself.
Founder of Propaholics, builder of the prop model. Picks on Propaholics are graded honestly and tracked every week, so you can judge the model for yourself. See the full model track record.
