Sunday Night Football Props: 3 Best Bets and a TD Scorer for Each Team (Eagles vs Commanders, Week 8)

I will start with the matchup, because it is the case against this pick. Philadelphia faces 27.4 running back carries a game, the most in the NFL, and gives up 116.7 rushing yards a game to backs, 3rd most. Every lead back that has played the Eagles this year got at least 14 carries: Javonte Williams had 25 last week and Chuba Hubbard had 28 the week before. So why the under? Because Washington does not use White like a lead back, and that has not changed no matter who it plays.

White has had 7, 7, 8, 7, and 7 carries in his five games this year. He has stayed under 12.5 in 14 straight games going back to Week 10 of last season, and the most he had in that stretch was 11. In Week 1 against this same Eagles defense, Jacory Croskey-Merritt got 16 carries and White got 7. In Week 6, when Croskey-Merritt did not get a single carry, White still had 7, with Jeremy McNichols taking 5 and Jayden Daniels 3. Game script has not moved it either: 14 of his 36 carries came with Washington ahead, and he still topped out at 8. In the alignment data, 74 of his 86 routes come out of the backfield. Washington uses him as a pass catcher as much as a runner.

My call: under. I know the theory that Washington will eventually feed him against a soft run defense, and if it ever happens, this is the game. But it did not happen in a 33-31 win over Seattle, and it did not happen with Croskey-Merritt out. Daniels also takes his share of runs, with 5 to 8 carries in most games. The risk is a big Washington lead with White as the clock-killer. -132 is a steep price, so shop around before you bet it.

This is my favorite matchup on the card. Washington gives up 65.5 receiving yards a game to TE1s, the most in the NFL. Look at the tight ends who have played them: Goedert himself had 77 yards in Week 1, then Jake Ferguson 43, AJ Barner 69, Tyler Warren 41, Isaiah Likely 94, and George Kittle 69. That is 4 of 6 over this line. In the alignment data, Goedert runs 48 of his 118 routes from the slot, and Washington has allowed 81.2 yards a game to the slot (9th most) and 9 slot touchdowns, the most in the league.

Goedert has gone over 45.5 in 3 of 5 games this year and 5 of his last 10. The number that matters is what he has done with McKee: 61 and 48 yards, on 8 and 7 targets. In those two games he led the Eagles with 15 targets. DeVonta Smith (14) and Dontayvion Wicks (4) took 18 more, and both are out tonight. Those targets have to go somewhere, and Goedert is the one proven option left.

My call: over. The honest risk is his floor: he had 4 yards in Week 2 and 38 in Week 5, and Zach Ertz takes some tight end snaps. Washington also allows only 26.5 yards a game to inline tight ends (13th fewest), so his production has to come from the slot. But with the volume he is getting and the defense he is facing, I like 46 yards.

Washington allows 268 passing yards a game, the 5th most in the NFL, and faces 38.3 pass attempts a game, 6th most. Five of the six quarterbacks it has faced went over 202.5: Jalen Hurts 203, Dak Prescott 279, Sam Darnold 379, Jameis Winston 326, and Brock Purdy 264. The only miss was Daniel Jones at 143. In the alignment data, Washington gives up 130 yards a game to receivers lined up wide (4th most) and the most slot touchdowns in the league. And tonight it is missing defensive tackles Payne and Kinlaw.

McKee has gone over this line in both of his starts this year: 215 yards on 45 attempts against Carolina and 211 on 35 attempts against Dallas. He also threw for 241 yards on 40 attempts against Washington in Week 18 last season. The min/max read is simple: he has thrown 35 or more passes in all three of those starts, and at that volume he has never been under 211 yards.

My call: over. This line moved from 197.5 to 202.5 this morning, so the cushion is thinner than it was, and he only cleared it by 9 and 13 yards in his two starts. The bigger risk is who he is throwing to. Without Smith and Wicks, this is Goedert, Lemon, Cooper, and Brown. But as a 6.5-point underdog, Philadelphia should be throwing for most of the night, and volume is the whole case.

Diggs has 4 touchdowns and has scored in 3 of his 5 games, including Week 1 against Philadelphia. He has 5 of Washington's 22 red-zone targets, the most of any receiver on the team. In the alignment data, he runs 85 of his 134 routes from the slot, and the Eagles have allowed 7 slot touchdowns this year, the 2nd most in the league. Washington is also the team more likely to score, at about 23.5 implied points.

The honest part: most books have him at +200, so the +230 at BetMGM is the bet. Washington spreads the ball around near the goal line (White and Burks have 3 red-zone targets each), and Antonio Williams also scored against this defense in Week 1.

Washington has allowed 8 touchdowns to tight ends in six games, the 2nd most in the NFL. TE1s have scored against them in 4 of 6 games, and Goedert was one of them: both of his touchdowns this year came in Week 1 against Washington, one from 17 yards and one from 43. He is McKee's top target, and with Smith and Wicks out, he is the Eagles' best option near the goal line.

The honest part: Philadelphia is only implied for about 17 points, and Goedert has just 3 red-zone targets all season. This is a matchup and price pick, not a volume pick, so keep it small.