Monday Night Football Props: 3 Best Bets and a TD Scorer for Each Team (Bears vs Seahawks, Week 8)

This pick is all about the defense. Seattle allows 158 passing yards a game, the fewest in the NFL, and no team has reached 190 against it in seven games: New England 178, Arizona 95, Washington 183, the Chargers 189, San Francisco 189, Denver 107, and Kansas City 165. That is 7 of 7 under 227.5, and the closest anyone got was about 39 yards short. In the alignment data, Seattle gives up the fewest yards in the league to the slot (32 a game) and the 2nd fewest to inline tight ends (16 a game). On the defense page, it holds WR1s to 30.6 yards a game, also the fewest.

I will be straight about Williams, because his own numbers point the other way. He has gone over 227.5 in 3 of his 4 starts this year: 269 against Carolina, 138 against Minnesota, then 305 against Atlanta and 308 against New England in his last two games. The last time he played Seattle, in Week 17 of 2024, he threw for 122. Seattle also faces only 33 pass attempts a game, 9th fewest, so teams have not been able to pile up volume against it.

My call: under. The risk is obvious: he is coming off two 300-yard games, and Chicago will throw more if it falls behind. But Seattle has not let anyone near this number, and Seattle is top 5 in the league against receivers lined up wide, in the slot, and inline, which covers Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland. Two of the three props on this card bet against Chicago's offense, so they will tend to win or lose together.

Smith-Njigba has gone over 99.5 in 6 of his 7 games this year: 122, 155, 128, 76, 102, 134, and 150 last week against Kansas City. The one miss was 76 yards on 6 targets against the Chargers. He has 78 targets in seven games, and with Rashid Shaheed out, Seattle loses its WR2, who had run 143 routes this year. Those targets have to go somewhere.

The matchup helps where he lines up. In the alignment data, he runs 150 of his 214 routes out wide (70%), and Chicago allows 120.6 yards a game to receivers lined up wide, the 8th most. The honest part: Chicago has been better against WR1s specifically, at 67.9 yards a game (11th most), and only one WR1 has topped 99.5 against it this year (143 yards in Week 5). He also had 32 yards against Chicago in Week 17 of 2024.

My call: over. 99.5 is a big number, and that is the risk: one quiet game or a game script where Seattle runs it 35 times and he lands in the 70s. But he has averaged 124 yards a game, and his floor this year has been a game where he got only 6 targets. With Shaheed out, I expect 10 or more.

Seattle allows 71 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 5th fewest in the NFL, and lead backs have had an even harder time: 37.7 yards a game, 7th fewest. RB1s have gone under 59.5 against Seattle in 5 of 6 games, with 51, 29, 35, 45, and 36 yards. The only one over was San Francisco's at 68. In Seattle's last game, Kansas City's lead back got 14 carries and ran for 36.

Swift has gone under 59.5 in 4 of 7 games this year: 45, 58, 43, and 44, with overs of 124, 84, and 78. His carries have been steady at 15 to 22 in most games, so this is a bet on efficiency, not role. Against Seattle he has run for 74 (2023, with Philadelphia) and 53 (2024, with Chicago).

My call: under. The risk is volume. Kyle Monangai is out, so Swift could get 20 or more carries, and he had 22 for 78 yards last week. If Chicago stays close and keeps running, he can get there on volume alone. But Seattle has held five of six lead backs under this line, and I trust the defense over the price.

Smith-Njigba has 8 touchdowns and has scored in 5 of 7 games, including 3 against Arizona. He has 12 red-zone targets, and in the alignment data, 7 of his 8 touchdowns came lined up wide. Chicago has allowed 4 touchdowns to receivers lined up wide this year, and with Shaheed out, he is the clear first read near the goal line.

The honest part: this is not plus money. -110 is the price at BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel, and most other books are a little worse. It is the most likely touchdown in the game, so it is a pick for accuracy, not payout.

Charbonnet was one of the best goal-line backs in football last season. He scored in 10 of his 16 games, 12 touchdowns in all, and had 52 red-zone carries. He is back at the top of Seattle's depth chart tonight, and the books are treating him like the lead back again: Emanuel Wilson, who has handled 20 or more carries in four games this year, has a rushing line of only 19.5 yards.

The honest part: Charbonnet has not played a game this season, and nobody knows yet how Seattle will split the work. Chicago has also been tough on running backs near the goal line, allowing 0.4 rushing touchdowns a game to backs, 5th fewest. This is a role and price pick at +135, so keep it small, and check that he is active before you bet it.