Thursday Night Football Props: My 3 Best Bets for Buccaneers vs Cowboys (Week 5)

Ferguson dominates NFC matchups. Last season he averaged 5.3 catches against NFC opponents, and he shows up on Thursday nights: he averaged 5 catches in last year's Thursday primetime games and has cleared 3.5 in all four Thursday night primetime games he has played since 2023. He has also already cashed this line against Tampa Bay, going for 6 catches and 40 yards on 9 targets in 2024.

The matchup is the reason I am here. Tampa Bay allows the 7th most receptions and 6th most yards to tight ends this season, and opposing TE1s are seeing 6 targets a game against them. Ferguson runs about 50% of his routes from the slot and 42% inline, and the Bucs allow the 5th most receptions and 4th most yards to the inline alignment.

Out wide is where Tampa Bay holds up, allowing the 7th fewest receptions to the wide alignment. If the boundary is tough sledding, expect Dak to lean on his tight end. Yes, Ferguson is off to a slow start with only one game over this number, but this is the best tight end matchup he has seen all year.

Daniels went undrafted out of Kansas, where he ran for 1,445 yards and 23 touchdowns in college, tying the school record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback. In his first NFL start last week against Green Bay, he ran 8 times for 55 yards, a strong 7.1 yards per carry across his two appearances.

Dallas is the worst defense in the league against quarterback runs. They are allowing 47 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the most in the NFL, on a league-high 6.8 carries a game. Three of the four starters they have faced cleared this line, and all three were runners: Jaxson Dart ran for 54, Jayden Daniels for 69, and Lamar Jackson for 50. The Cowboys are also giving up 150 rushing yards a game overall, 2nd most in the league.

Game script helps too. Tampa Bay is an 8-point underdog, and a rookie quarterback playing from behind against a pass rush tends to take off when the pocket breaks down. Daniels only needs one or two scrambles to get there.

This is the safest leg on the card. Gainwell has cleared 1.5 catches in 9 of his last 10 games and did it in 16 of 17 games last season. He averaged 5 targets a game a year ago, and 40 of his 51 routes this year come out of the backfield, so he is the passing-down back in Tampa Bay.

Dallas has been tough on running backs in the passing game this year, allowing the 4th fewest receptions to the position. But look at who did the damage: Rachaad White caught 6 balls and Devin Singletary caught 4, both receiving backs who were not their team's lead runner. That is exactly the Gainwell role.

With a rookie quarterback and Tampa Bay an 8-point underdog, I expect a lot of checkdowns. Gainwell already caught both of his targets in Daniels' first start. Two catches is all we need.