Thursday Night Football Props: 3 Best Bets and a TD Scorer for Each Team (Jaguars vs Ravens, Week 9)
By J.B. Wright·
First, how last week's Thursday Night Football props did: 1-2. Josh Jacobs ran for 39 yards (under 58.5), Bryce Young threw for 209 (under 254.5), and Matthew Golden caught 7 passes (over 4.5). The touchdown picks went 2-0: Jacobs scored twice, on a 1-yard run and a 4-yard catch, and Chuba Hubbard scored on a 1-yard run.
Thursday Night Football gives us Jaguars at Ravens in Baltimore. Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite with a total of 40, which puts the Jaguars near 25 implied points and the Ravens near 15. The big news is at quarterback: Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve after thumb surgery and Tyler Huntley is out, so undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano makes his first career start. He came in during the second quarter of last week's 36-10 loss to Buffalo and went 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception and 3 sacks. Jacksonville is 5-2, and Baltimore is 4-4 after three straight losses. On the Jaguars side, running backs Bhayshul Tuten (ankle) and Chris Rodriguez Jr. (hand), receiver Jakobi Meyers (hamstring), and defensive lineman Travon Walker (ribs) are all questionable. Check the final injury report before you bet.
How I think this game plays out: Jacksonville gets ahead, and Baltimore has to throw to keep up. That is why all three props are receiving yards. Two of them are Ravens receivers, because a 10-point underdog throws, and Jacksonville has given up more receiving yards to wide receivers than any defense in the league.
These are research picks. I ran each one through my 9-step research process and leaned on receiver alignment, where each defense gives up yards and touchdowns: out wide, in the slot, inline, or out of the backfield. Bet them small and read the reasoning, not just the line.
Primetime Props
1. Zay Flowers Receiving Yards Over 46.5
BAL vs JAX·-112 @ DraftKings
Over 46.5 in 6 of 7 games this year
Flowers has gone over 46.5 receiving yards in 6 of 7 games this year (150, 84, 118, 53, 66, and 137), averaging 86.9 yards a game on 8.3 targets. He also cleared this line in 13 of 17 games last season. He is the Ravens' top target, and a 10-point underdog is going to throw.
The matchup helps. Jacksonville gives up 195.7 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the most in the NFL. Flowers runs 110 of his 187 charted routes from the slot, where the Jaguars are about average (67.1 yards a game, 16th), but they give up 146.7 yards a game to receivers lined up out wide, the 2nd most, and he moves around. The model has him at 52% with a projection of 78.7 yards.
Here is the honest part. The one miss this year was last week: 0 catches on 5 targets against Buffalo, and 4 of those targets came from Fagnano. That is the whole risk. If the rookie cannot get him the ball, the matchup does not matter. In his one game against Jacksonville since 2023, he had 7 yards. I am betting on the volume and the matchup over one bad half from a quarterback making his first start.
Bateman has gone over 14.5 receiving yards in 6 of 8 games this year (88, 37, 46, 62, 33, and 22), averaging 36.0 yards a game. One catch can clear this line, and his catches go downfield. Last week, his 22-yard catch was Fagnano's longest completion of the day.
This is the alignment pick. Bateman runs 131 of his 185 charted routes out wide, and Jacksonville gives up 146.7 yards a game to receivers lined up out wide, the 2nd most in the league. The model likes it more than the market does: 53% with a projection of 30.0 yards.
Here is the honest part. The volume is thin, 3.6 targets a game, and his two misses this year were games with 1 target and 0 yards. He also went over this line in just 5 of 13 games last season. With a rookie at quarterback, a quiet night is possible. I am betting that a team trailing by double digits has to throw to the outside.
This is the buy-low pick. Last season Thomas averaged 50.5 receiving yards a game and went over 12.5 in 13 of 14 games. This year his role shrank: he is listed as the Jaguars' third receiver, gets 3.1 targets a game, and is averaging 16.7 yards. A line of 12.5 is priced for this year's role, not his talent.
The matchup is a good one. Baltimore gives up 177.6 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 5th most in the NFL, and 124.6 yards a game to receivers lined up out wide, also 5th most. Thomas runs 75 of his 109 charted routes out wide. The model has him at 53% with a projection of 26.1 yards. If Meyers (hamstring) cannot go, Thomas should see more snaps.
Here is the honest part. He has gone over this line in just 3 of 7 games this year, and his last three games went 0, 0, and 12 yards. He has also had red-zone looks, with 2 touchdowns this year, so the Jaguars still have a role for him near the end zone. I am betting on talent and matchup over his recent numbers, so bet this one small.
One touchdown scorer for each team, plus a longshot
One anytime touchdown pick for each side, then a longshot bonus. The first two are likely scorers, not long shots. The longshot is a small bet on a big price, so treat it that way.
1. Parker Washington Anytime TD
JAX vs BAL·+145 @ BetMGM
3 of his 4 TDs came from the slot
Washington has 4 touchdowns in 7 games, and 3 of them came from the slot. That is the spot where Baltimore struggles: the Ravens have allowed 6 touchdowns to receivers lined up in the slot, tied for the 3rd most in the NFL. He also has 8 red-zone targets this year, and Jacksonville is implied for about 25 points.
The honest part: he lines up out wide more often than in the slot (100 routes to 73), and the model has him at 38% against the market's 42%, so it sees a little less than the price. I am taking him for the slot matchup.
Henry has scored in 6 of 8 games this year, with 9 touchdowns and 41 red-zone carries, about 5 a game. He scored even in last week's 36-10 loss. When the Ravens get close, the ball goes to him, and that does not change with a rookie at quarterback.
The honest part: Jacksonville has been one of the hardest defenses to run on. It gives up the fewest rushing yards to running backs in the league (57.7 a game), just 3 red-zone carries a game to backs (7th fewest), and 3 rushing touchdowns to the position in seven games. Baltimore is implied for about 15 points. I am betting that if the Ravens score, it is Henry.
Here is the longshot. Second tight ends have scored 3 touchdowns against Jacksonville this year on just 8 targets (Denver's Nate Adkins, and Houston's Foster Moreau twice in one game). Top tight ends have scored once on 36 targets. Cuevas is Baltimore's second tight end, and he has red-zone targets in 2 of his last 3 games, with a touchdown against Cleveland in Week 6.
The honest part: he has 13 targets in five games, and Jacksonville gives up the fewest receiving yards to tight ends in the league. At +2200, he only has to score about 1 time in 23 to pay off, and the model has him a little above the market (5.5% to 4.8%). Bet it small, and keep it off the parlay.
The three props and the two main touchdown picks rolled into one ticket, priced at the best odds listed on each card. The Cuevas longshot is not included; bet that one on its own. Three of these legs come from the Ravens, so they are not fully independent. Research, not betting advice.
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FAQ
What is a player prop?
A player prop is a bet on one player's stats instead of the game result, like how many rushing yards a running back gets or how many catches a receiver makes. You bet the over or the under on the line the sportsbook sets.
What is an anytime touchdown bet?
An anytime touchdown bet wins if the player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime. It pays the listed odds whether he scores once or three times.
What does alignment mean in a prop pick?
Alignment is where a player lines up before the snap: out wide, in the slot, inline next to the tackle, or in the backfield. Defenses give up yards and touchdowns to some spots more than others, so matching a player's main spot to the defense's weak spot is one more way to find value.
How does a backup quarterback change player props?
A backup usually means fewer completed passes and shorter throws, which hurts receiver overs. But a big underdog still has to throw, so the receivers can still get the volume. Weigh how much the team will pass against how well the new quarterback can complete those throws.
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