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Live first touchdown line and odds for Vikings @ Buccaneers, with hit rates, the game log vs the line, and the matchup behind the number.
Justin Jefferson first touchdown odds for Vikings @ Buccaneers: current prices with a best price of +650 across 1 books. Below is the full research view: per-book prices, hit rates by window, the game log charted against the line, and the defensive matchup. Our model prices this prop independently of the books; the model number and edge unlock with an account.
| Wk | Opp | First TD | Pos | Qtr | 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 W2 | CHI | No TD | |||
| 26 W1 | GB | Justin Jefferson | WR1 | 2 | |
| 25 W18 | GB | C.J. Ham | RB6 | 2 | ● |
| 25 W17 | DET | Aaron Jones | RB1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W16 | NYG | J.J. McCarthy | QB3 | 2 | ● |
| 25 W15 | DAL | Jalen Nailor | WR2 | 1 | |
| 25 W14 | WAS | Josh Oliver | TE2 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W13 | SEA | No TD | |||
| 25 W12 | GB | No TD | |||
| 25 W11 | CHI | Jordan Mason | RB4 | 4 | |
| 25 W10 | BAL | Aaron Jones | RB1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W9 | DET | Justin Jefferson | WR1 | 1 | |
| 25 W8 | LAC | Jordan Addison | WR2 | 3 | |
| 25 W7 | PHI | Jordan Mason | RB4 | 3 | |
| 25 W5 | CLE | Josh Oliver | TE2 | 1 | |
| 25 W4 | PIT | Zavier Scott | RB4 | 4 | |
| 25 W3 | CIN | Josh Oliver | TE2 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W2 | ATL | No TD | |||
| 25 W1 | CHI | Justin Jefferson | WR1 | 4 |
| Wk | Vs | First TD of the game | Qtr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 W2 | CLE | ✗ | 3 |
| 26 W1 | CIN | Mike Gesicki TE1 | 1 |
| 25 W18 | CAR | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W17 | MIA | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W16 | CAR | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W15 | ATL | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W14 | NO | Devin Neal RB5 | 1 |
| 25 W13 | ARI | ✗ | 2 |
| 25 W12 | LA | Davante Adams WR2 | 1 |
| 25 W11 | BUF | Josh Allen QB1 | 1 |
| 25 W10 | NE | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W8 | NO | ✗ | 3 |
| 25 W7 | DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 | 1 |
| 25 W6 | SF | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W5 | SEA | ✗ | 2 |
| 25 W4 | PHI | Dallas Goedert TE1 | 1 |
| 25 W3 | NYJ | ✗ | 2 |
| 25 W2 | HOU | Nico Collins WR1 | 1 |
| 25 W1 | ATL | Bijan Robinson RB1 | 1 |
| Direction | TB allows | Jefferson | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPT | TD/g | TD | Rank | Tgt | Yds | YPT | TD | |
| Left | 81.8 | 7.13 | 0.65 | 11 | #13 | 50 | 370 | 7.40 | 0 |
| Middle | 62.5 | 8.86 | 0.41 | 7 | #25 | 28 | 363 | 12.96 | 1 |
| Right | 110.4 | 7.57 | 0.71 | 12 | #32 | 63 | 315 | 5.00 | 1 |
2025 regular season, from play-by-play pass location (~92% of attempts are charted). Sides are the offense's perspective. Opponent numbers are per game except TD (season total); the player's are season totals with YPT.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse
The current line is shown on the card above with a best available price of +650 across 1 sportsbooks for Vikings @ Buccaneers. Lines move throughout the day, so the card above always shows the live number.
Against the current first touchdown line, Justin Jefferson has hit 0% over his last 5 games, 0% over his last 10, 0% across the season. The game log below charts every game against the line, and the range cards break it down by window.
Yes. The game log on this page filters by home and away, win or loss, primetime, day of the week, and volume ranges like carries or targets, and the line stepper reprices the chart at alternate lines. Every filter updates the hit rates instantly.
Yes. Our model prices every posted prop independently of the sportsbooks and shows its probability next to the market's implied probability, with the gap between them. The model number on this prop unlocks with an account, and the board's top showcase play is free every slate.