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Live first touchdown line and odds for Steelers @ Browns, with hit rates, the game log vs the line, and the matchup behind the number.
Michael Pittman first touchdown odds for Steelers @ Browns: current prices with a best price of +1500 across 7 books. Below is the full research view: per-book prices, hit rates by window, the game log charted against the line, and the defensive matchup. Our model prices this prop independently of the books; the model number and edge unlock with an account.
| Wk | Opp | First TD | Pos | Qtr | 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 W3 | CIN | Roman Wilson | WR3 | 1 | ● |
| 26 W2 | NE | No TD | |||
| 26 W1 | ATL | Pat Freiermuth | TE2 | 2 | |
| 25 W18 | BAL | Connor Heyward | RB7 | 3 | |
| 25 W17 | CLE | No TD | |||
| 25 W16 | DET | Kenny Gainwell | RB2 | 2 | |
| 25 W15 | MIA | Connor Heyward | RB7 | 2 | ● |
| 25 W14 | BAL | Aaron Rodgers | QB1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W13 | BUF | Jaylen Warren | RB1 | 2 | ● |
| 25 W12 | CHI | DK Metcalf | WR1 | 1 | |
| 25 W11 | CIN | Kenny Gainwell | RB2 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W10 | LAC | Roman Wilson | WR3 | 4 | |
| 25 W9 | IND | Jaylen Warren | RB1 | 2 | |
| 25 W8 | GB | DK Metcalf | WR1 | 2 | |
| 25 W7 | CIN | Jonnu Smith | TE2 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W6 | CLE | Connor Heyward | RB7 | 3 | ● |
| 25 W4 | MIN | Kenny Gainwell | RB2 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W3 | NE | Kenny Gainwell | RB2 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W2 | SEA | DK Metcalf | WR1 | 2 | |
| 25 W1 | NYJ | Ben Skowronek | WR5 | 1 | ● |
| Direction | CLE allows | Pittman | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPT | TD/g | TD | Rank | Tgt | Yds | YPT | TD | |
| Left | 55.6 | 5.41 | 0.53 | 9 | #1 | 48 | 347 | 7.23 | 2 |
| Middle | 45.8 | 9.16 | 0.18 | 3 | #5 | 28 | 244 | 8.71 | 2 |
| Right | 87.4 | 6.60 | 0.76 | 13 | #18 | 35 | 202 | 5.77 | 3 |
2025 regular season, from play-by-play pass location (~92% of attempts are charted). Sides are the offense's perspective. Opponent numbers are per game except TD (season total); the player's are season totals with YPT.
| Wk | Vs | First TD of the game | Qtr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 W3 | CAR | ✗ | 2 |
| 26 W2 | TB | Emeka Egbuka WR1 | 3 |
| 26 W1 | JAX | Parker Washington WR1 | 1 |
| 25 W18 | CIN | Chase Brown RB1 | 1 |
| 25 W17 | PIT | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W16 | BUF | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W15 | CHI | D'Andre Swift RB1 | 1 |
| 25 W14 | TEN | Elic Ayomanor WR3 | 1 |
| 25 W13 | SF | Christian McCaffrey RB1 | 1 |
| 25 W12 | LV | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W11 | BAL | Derrick Henry RB1 | 2 |
| 25 W10 | NYJ | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W8 | NE | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W7 | MIA | ✗ | 2 |
| 25 W6 | PIT | Connor Heyward RB7 | 3 |
| 25 W5 | MIN | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W4 | DET | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W3 | GB | John FitzPatrick TE5 | 3 |
| 25 W2 | BAL | Tylan Wallace WR6 | 2 |
| 25 W1 | CIN | Chase Brown RB1 | 1 |
The current line is shown on the card above with a best available price of +1500 across 7 sportsbooks for Steelers @ Browns. Lines move throughout the day, so the card above always shows the live number.
Against the current first touchdown line, Michael Pittman has hit 0% over his last 5 games, 10% over his last 10, 12% across the season. The game log below charts every game against the line, and the range cards break it down by window.
Yes. The game log on this page filters by home and away, win or loss, primetime, day of the week, and volume ranges like carries or targets, and the line stepper reprices the chart at alternate lines. Every filter updates the hit rates instantly.
Yes. Our model prices every posted prop independently of the sportsbooks and shows its probability next to the market's implied probability, with the gap between them. The model number on this prop unlocks with an account, and the board's top showcase play is free every slate.