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Live first touchdown line and odds for Jaguars @ Bengals, with hit rates, the game log vs the line, and the matchup behind the number.
Mitchell Tinsley first touchdown odds for Jaguars @ Bengals: current prices with a best price of +5500 across 7 books. Below is the full research view: per-book prices, hit rates by window, the game log charted against the line, and the defensive matchup. Our model prices this prop independently of the books; the model number and edge unlock with an account.
Rank 1 = toughest. A softer rank (higher %) is the better spot for the bet; tick marks the league average.
| Wk | Opp | First TD | Pos | Qtr | 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 W3 | PIT | Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | 1 | |
| 26 W2 | HOU | Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | 2 | ● |
| 26 W1 | TB | Mike Gesicki | TE1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W18 | CLE | Chase Brown | RB1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W17 | ARI | Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W16 | MIA | Tee Higgins | WR2 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W15 | BAL | No TD | |||
| 25 W14 | BUF | Chase Brown | RB1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W13 | BAL | Tanner Hudson | TE4 | 3 | |
| 25 W12 | NE | Mitchell Tinsley | WR5 | 4 | |
| 25 W11 | PIT | Tee Higgins | WR2 | 1 | |
| 25 W9 | CHI | Charlie Jones | WR5 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W8 | NYJ | Joe Flacco | QB2 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W7 | PIT | Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | 2 | |
| 25 W6 | GB | Tanner Hudson | TE4 | 3 | |
| 25 W5 | DET | Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | 4 | |
| 25 W4 | DEN | No TD | |||
| 25 W3 | MIN | Drew Sample | TE2 | 4 | |
| 25 W2 | JAX | Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | 1 | |
| 25 W1 | CLE | Chase Brown | RB1 | 1 | ● |
| Wk | Vs | First TD of the game | Qtr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 W3 | NE | ✗ | 2 |
| 26 W2 | DEN | ✗ | 2 |
| 26 W1 | CLE | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W18 | TEN | Cam Ward QB1 | 1 |
| 25 W17 | IND | Jonathan Taylor RB1 | 2 |
| 25 W16 | DEN | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W15 | NYJ | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W14 | IND | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W13 | TEN | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W12 | ARI | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W11 | LAC | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W10 | HOU | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W9 | LV | Brock Bowers TE1 | 2 |
| 25 W7 | LA | Konata Mumpfield WR4 | 1 |
| 25 W6 | SEA | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W5 | KC | Travis Kelce TE1 | 1 |
| 25 W4 | SF | ✗ | 2 |
| 25 W3 | HOU | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W2 | CIN | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W1 | CAR | ✗ | 2 |
| Direction | JAX allows | Tinsley | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPT | TD/g | TD | Rank | Tgt | Yds | YPT | TD | |
| Left | 95.0 | 6.00 | 0.41 | 7 | #26 | 8 | 25 | 3.12 | 1 |
| Middle | 46.0 | 6.36 | 0.47 | 8 | #6 | 7 | 39 | 5.57 | 0 |
| Right | 89.2 | 6.26 | 0.59 | 10 | #20 | 9 | 52 | 5.78 | 1 |
2025 regular season, from play-by-play pass location (~92% of attempts are charted). Sides are the offense's perspective. Opponent numbers are per game except TD (season total); the player's are season totals with YPT.
The current line is shown on the card above with a best available price of +5500 across 7 sportsbooks for Jaguars @ Bengals. Lines move throughout the day, so the card above always shows the live number.
Against the current first touchdown line, Mitchell Tinsley has hit 0% over his last 5 games, 0% over his last 10, 0% across the season. The game log below charts every game against the line, and the range cards break it down by window.
Yes. The game log on this page filters by home and away, win or loss, primetime, day of the week, and volume ranges like carries or targets, and the line stepper reprices the chart at alternate lines. Every filter updates the hit rates instantly.
Yes. Our model prices every posted prop independently of the sportsbooks and shows its probability next to the market's implied probability, with the gap between them. The model number on this prop unlocks with an account, and the board's top showcase play is free every slate.