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An AI read on this prop built from our model: matchup, usage, coverage fit, and where our number splits from the line.
Upgrade to unlock| Split | NE usage | Att | Comp% | Y/A | EPA/att | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 31.4% | 164 | 48.8% | 5.68 | -0.04 | 9 |
| Zone | 68.6% | 363 | 68.0% | 6.58 | +0.06 | 15 |
| Cover 3 | 29.2% | 126 | 68.3% | 6.06 | +0.01 | 4 |
| Cover 2 | 26.5% | 140 | 69.3% | 6.82 | +0.09 | 4 |
| Cover 1 | 26.3% | 112 | 50.9% | 5.96 | +0.01 | 7 |
Mix fit: weighted by NE's coverage diet he sits at +0.03 EPA/att vs his +0.03 overall (covers 100% of their shells).
Rates are last season, league-wide vs each coverage (a sample vs one defense is too small), from participation charting. Usage % is the opponent's charted pass plays. EPA/att = expected points added per attempt; positive = above expectation. TD is the raw count thrown vs that bucket, context only.
Where the opponent is vulnerable (rank 1 = toughest, 32 = most vulnerable; green = favorable) against where Rodgers runs.
| Direction | NE allows | Rodgers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPC | TD/g | Rank | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | |
| Left | 49.6 | 5.07 | 0.22 | #25 | 4 | 31 | 7.75 | 1 |
| Middle | 17.4 | 3.61 | 0.17 | #3 | 2 | 16 | 8.00 | 0 |
| Right | 34.9 | 3.97 | 0.22 | #4 | 6 | 21 | 3.50 | 0 |
Prior season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game; the player's are season totals with YPC.