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An AI read on this prop built from our model: matchup, usage, coverage fit, and where our number splits from the line.
Upgrade to unlock| Coverage | CHI usage | Routes | Rec | YPRR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 42.1% | 121 | 17 | 0.96 | 1 |
| Zone | 57.9% | 214 | 33 | 1.81 | 3 |
| Cover 1 | 30.9% | 89 | 14 | 1.04 | 1 |
| Cover 2 | 25.3% | 59 | 10 | 1.47 | 1 |
| Cover 3 | 22.8% | 105 | 16 | 2.27 | 1 |
| 2-Man | 6.3% | 14 | 3 | 1.64 | 0 |
| Cover 0 | 4.9% | 18 | - | 0.00 | 0 |
| Cover 4 | 4.4% | 24 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 |
| Cover 6 | 3.3% | 9 | - | 0.00 | 0 |
| Cover 9 | 1.8% | 11 | 2 | 2.09 | 0 |
| Combo | 0.4% | 4 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 |
YPRR and TD are season-long vs each coverage across the league (sample vs one defense is too small). Routes run approximated from participation charting. Usage % is the opponent's charted pass plays.
| Direction | CHI allows | Ertz | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPT | TD/g | TD | Rank | Tgt | Yds | YPT | TD | |
| Left | 76.2 | 6.72 | 0.88 | 15 | #8 | 30 | 214 | 7.13 | 2 |
| Middle | 80.2 | 10.03 | 0.65 | 11 | #31 | 19 | 103 | 5.42 | 1 |
| Right | 82.8 | 7.00 | 0.35 | 6 | #13 | 23 | 187 | 8.13 | 1 |
2025 regular season, from play-by-play pass location (~92% of attempts are charted). Sides are the offense's perspective. Opponent numbers are per game except TD (season total); the player's are season totals with YPT.