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An AI read on this prop built from our model: matchup, usage, coverage fit, and where our number splits from the line.
Upgrade to unlock| Split | GB usage | Att | Comp% | Y/A | EPA/att | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 19.4% | 151 | 51.7% | 6.48 | +0.05 | 10 |
| Zone | 80.6% | 352 | 63.6% | 5.82 | -0.23 | 9 |
| Cover 3 | 34.3% | 138 | 66.7% | 6.52 | -0.10 | 2 |
| Cover 2 | 27.9% | 113 | 59.3% | 4.36 | -0.50 | 3 |
| Cover 1 | 16.5% | 121 | 49.6% | 6.29 | -0.00 | 5 |
| Cover 4 | 10.1% | 55 | 61.8% | 6.40 | -0.03 | 4 |
Mix fit: weighted by GB's coverage diet he sits at -0.18 EPA/att vs his -0.15 overall (covers 100% of their shells).
Rates are last season, league-wide vs each coverage (a sample vs one defense is too small), from participation charting. Usage % is the opponent's charted pass plays. EPA/att = expected points added per attempt; positive = above expectation. TD is the raw count thrown vs that bucket, context only.
Where the opponent is vulnerable (rank 1 = toughest, 32 = most vulnerable; green = favorable) against where Smith runs.
| Direction | GB allows | Smith | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPC | TD/g | Rank | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | |
| Left | 44.3 | 4.56 | 0.33 | #17 | 12 | 49 | 4.08 | 0 |
| Middle | 32.0 | 4.00 | 0.22 | #24 | 14 | 23 | 1.64 | 0 |
| Right | 41.2 | 4.12 | 0.39 | #11 | 10 | 53 | 5.30 | 0 |
Prior season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game; the player's are season totals with YPC.