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An AI read on this prop built from our model: matchup, usage, coverage fit, and where our number splits from the line.
Upgrade to unlock| Split | WAS usage | Att | Comp% | Y/A | EPA/att | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 30.5% | 138 | 61.6% | 8.34 | +0.23 | 10 |
| Zone | 69.5% | 363 | 65.3% | 7.95 | +0.09 | 15 |
| Cover 3 | 24.7% | 155 | 62.6% | 8.65 | +0.13 | 8 |
| Cover 1 | 24.2% | 85 | 62.4% | 9.34 | +0.29 | 7 |
| Cover 2 | 19.2% | 95 | 71.6% | 6.77 | -0.03 | 1 |
| Cover 4 | 15.4% | 60 | 65.0% | 7.18 | +0.18 | 4 |
Mix fit: weighted by WAS's coverage diet he sits at +0.14 EPA/att vs his +0.13 overall (covers 99% of their shells).
Rates are last season, league-wide vs each coverage (a sample vs one defense is too small), from participation charting. Usage % is the opponent's charted pass plays. EPA/att = expected points added per attempt; positive = above expectation. TD is the raw count thrown vs that bucket, context only.
| Direction | WAS allows | Darnold | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPC | TD/g | TD | Rank | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | |
| Left | 52.4 | 5.20 | 0.53 | 9 | #27 | 5 | 19 | 3.80 | 0 |
| Middle | 33.2 | 4.31 | 0.06 | 1 | #25 | 8 | 43 | 5.38 | 0 |
| Right | 57.3 | 5.32 | 0.47 | 8 | #29 | 7 | 46 | 6.57 | 0 |
2025 regular season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game except TD (season total); the player's are season totals with YPC.