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An AI read on this prop built from our model: matchup, usage, coverage fit, and where our number splits from the line.
Upgrade to unlock| Split | LV usage | Att | Comp% | Y/A | EPA/att | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 20.3% | 222 | 51.8% | 5.93 | +0.01 | 13 |
| Zone | 79.7% | 343 | 65.6% | 7.03 | +0.01 | 13 |
| Cover 3 | 37.7% | 134 | 67.9% | 7.57 | +0.02 | 5 |
| Cover 2 | 22.1% | 103 | 69.9% | 7.50 | +0.21 | 3 |
| Cover 1 | 13.3% | 164 | 52.4% | 6.40 | +0.01 | 4 |
| Cover 4 | 11.7% | 42 | 61.9% | 6.76 | -0.22 | 3 |
Mix fit: weighted by LV's coverage diet he sits at +0.01 EPA/att vs his +0.01 overall (covers 100% of their shells).
Rates are last season, league-wide vs each coverage (a sample vs one defense is too small), from participation charting. Usage % is the opponent's charted pass plays. EPA/att = expected points added per attempt; positive = above expectation. TD is the raw count thrown vs that bucket, context only.
Where the opponent is vulnerable (rank 1 = toughest, 32 = most vulnerable; green = favorable) against where Herbert runs.
| Direction | LV allows | Herbert | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPC | TD/g | Rank | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | |
| Left | 42.5 | 3.71 | 0.50 | #16 | 19 | 145 | 7.63 | 0 |
| Middle | 36.3 | 4.19 | 0.61 | #28 | 34 | 180 | 5.29 | 1 |
| Right | 36.9 | 4.71 | 0.17 | #6 | 22 | 218 | 9.91 | 1 |
Prior season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game; the player's are season totals with YPC.