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An AI read on this prop built from our model: matchup, usage, coverage fit, and where our number splits from the line.
Upgrade to unlock| Split | TEN usage | Att | Comp% | Y/A | EPA/att | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 25.9% | 171 | 53.8% | 6.24 | +0.08 | 17 |
| Zone | 74.1% | 315 | 64.1% | 6.85 | +0.04 | 8 |
| Cover 2 | 29.4% | 99 | 70.7% | 6.71 | -0.12 | 2 |
| Cover 3 | 26.4% | 128 | 62.5% | 7.67 | +0.23 | 6 |
| Cover 1 | 18.9% | 101 | 54.5% | 6.62 | +0.07 | 8 |
Mix fit: weighted by TEN's coverage diet he sits at +0.06 EPA/att vs his +0.05 overall (covers 97% of their shells).
Rates are last season, league-wide vs each coverage (a sample vs one defense is too small), from participation charting. Usage % is the opponent's charted pass plays. EPA/att = expected points added per attempt; positive = above expectation. TD is the raw count thrown vs that bucket, context only.
Where the opponent is vulnerable (rank 1 = toughest, 32 = most vulnerable; green = favorable) against where Hurts runs.
| Direction | TEN allows | Hurts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPC | TD/g | Rank | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | |
| Left | 45.8 | 5.18 | 0.61 | #19 | 25 | 161 | 6.44 | 1 |
| Middle | 34.1 | 4.01 | 0.28 | #27 | 40 | 98 | 2.45 | 6 |
| Right | 38.3 | 4.47 | 0.39 | #8 | 32 | 225 | 7.03 | 1 |
Prior season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game; the player's are season totals with YPC.