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An AI read on this prop built from our model: matchup, usage, coverage fit, and where our number splits from the line.
Upgrade to unlock| Split | DEN usage | Att | Comp% | Y/A | EPA/att | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 44.8% | 168 | 51.8% | 7.08 | +0.10 | 14 |
| Zone | 55.2% | 432 | 58.8% | 6.52 | +0.04 | 15 |
| Cover 1 | 31.2% | 117 | 48.7% | 6.79 | +0.05 | 3 |
| Cover 3 | 22.9% | 191 | 58.6% | 6.27 | +0.04 | 7 |
| Cover 2 | 16.4% | 133 | 58.6% | 6.35 | +0.08 | 7 |
Mix fit: weighted by DEN's coverage diet he sits at +0.06 EPA/att vs his +0.06 overall (covers 99% of their shells).
Rates are last season, league-wide vs each coverage (a sample vs one defense is too small), from participation charting. Usage % is the opponent's charted pass plays. EPA/att = expected points added per attempt; positive = above expectation. TD is the raw count thrown vs that bucket, context only.
Where the opponent is vulnerable (rank 1 = toughest, 32 = most vulnerable; green = favorable) against where Lawrence runs.
| Direction | DEN allows | Lawrence | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPC | TD/g | Rank | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | |
| Left | 38.3 | 4.60 | 0.33 | #9 | 25 | 143 | 5.72 | 3 |
| Middle | 23.8 | 3.52 | 0.28 | #8 | 34 | 163 | 4.79 | 5 |
| Right | 36.4 | 4.13 | 0.11 | #5 | 16 | 65 | 4.06 | 1 |
Prior season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game; the player's are season totals with YPC.