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An AI read on this prop built from our model: matchup, usage, coverage fit, and where our number splits from the line.
Upgrade to unlock| Split | MIA usage | Att | Comp% | Y/A | EPA/att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 27.2% | 102 | 61.8% | 6.63 | +0.30 |
| Zone | 72.8% | 196 | 68.4% | 7.61 | +0.14 |
| Cover 2 | 34.6% | 61 | 70.5% | 6.48 | +0.12 |
| Cover 3 | 24.7% | 81 | 65.4% | 8.26 | +0.14 |
| Cover 1 | 20.2% | 77 | 58.4% | 6.84 | +0.10 |
Mix fit: weighted by MIA's coverage diet he sits at +0.19 EPA/att vs his +0.19 overall (covers 100% of their shells).
Rates are last season, league-wide vs each coverage (a sample vs one defense is too small), from participation charting. Usage % is the opponent's charted pass plays. EPA/att = expected points added per attempt; positive = above expectation.
Where the opponent is vulnerable (rank 1 = toughest, 32 = most vulnerable; green = favorable) against where Purdy runs.
| Direction | MIA allows | Purdy | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPC | TD/g | Rank | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | |
| Left | 47.9 | 5.46 | 0.28 | #23 | 12 | 100 | 8.33 | 3 |
| Middle | 37.4 | 4.10 | 0.17 | #30 | 12 | 41 | 3.42 | 0 |
| Right | 46.9 | 5.09 | 0.56 | #17 | 10 | 39 | 3.90 | 0 |
Prior season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game; the player's are season totals with YPC.