New here? Get a 7-day free trial.Full access to every number and matchup. Then $15/mo or $110/yr, cancel anytime.Start free trial →
An AI read on this prop built from our model: matchup, usage, coverage fit, and where our number splits from the line.
Upgrade to unlock| Split | JAX usage | Att | Comp% | Y/A | EPA/att | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 24% | 149 | 55.7% | 6.21 | +0.20 | 12 |
| Zone | 76% | 489 | 62.4% | 6.15 | +0.06 | 13 |
| Cover 3 | 29.8% | 193 | 62.7% | 6.77 | +0.10 | 4 |
| Cover 2 | 26.1% | 172 | 65.1% | 5.52 | +0.06 | 6 |
| Cover 1 | 16.1% | 113 | 54.9% | 6.64 | +0.21 | 6 |
Mix fit: weighted by JAX's coverage diet he sits at +0.10 EPA/att vs his +0.09 overall (covers 100% of their shells).
Rates are last season, league-wide vs each coverage (a sample vs one defense is too small), from participation charting. Usage % is the opponent's charted pass plays. EPA/att = expected points added per attempt; positive = above expectation. TD is the raw count thrown vs that bucket, context only.
Where the opponent is vulnerable (rank 1 = toughest, 32 = most vulnerable; green = favorable) against where Nix runs.
| Direction | JAX allows | Nix | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPC | TD/g | Rank | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | |
| Left | 27.3 | 4.47 | 0.17 | #1 | 21 | 140 | 6.67 | 2 |
| Middle | 28.1 | 3.39 | 0.22 | #17 | 22 | 105 | 4.77 | 1 |
| Right | 31.2 | 4.72 | 0.33 | #1 | 22 | 137 | 6.23 | 2 |
Prior season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game; the player's are season totals with YPC.