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An AI read on this prop built from our model: matchup, usage, coverage fit, and where our number splits from the line.
Upgrade to unlock| Split | MIN usage | Att | Comp% | Y/A | EPA/att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 18.5% | 158 | 53.8% | 6.65 | +0.11 |
| Zone | 81.5% | 436 | 56.2% | 6.63 | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 36.7% | 121 | 55.4% | 5.50 | -0.09 |
| Cover 3 | 24.4% | 204 | 54.4% | 6.69 | +0.08 |
| Cover 4 | 12.1% | 56 | 66.1% | 7.14 | +0.14 |
Mix fit: weighted by MIN's coverage diet he sits at +0.05 EPA/att vs his +0.07 overall (covers 94% of their shells).
Rates are last season, league-wide vs each coverage (a sample vs one defense is too small), from participation charting. Usage % is the opponent's charted pass plays. EPA/att = expected points added per attempt; positive = above expectation.
Where the opponent is vulnerable (rank 1 = toughest, 32 = most vulnerable; green = favorable) against where Williams runs.
| Direction | MIN allows | Williams | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPC | TD/g | Rank | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | |
| Left | 44.5 | 4.35 | 0.33 | #18 | 32 | 230 | 7.19 | 4 |
| Middle | 26.7 | 3.29 | 0.22 | #14 | 14 | 57 | 4.07 | 0 |
| Right | 50.1 | 4.33 | 0.17 | #20 | 23 | 184 | 8.00 | 1 |
Prior season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game; the player's are season totals with YPC.