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An AI read on this prop built from our model: matchup, usage, coverage fit, and where our number splits from the line.
Upgrade to unlock| Split | PHI usage | Att | Comp% | Y/A | EPA/att | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 42.8% | 171 | 45.6% | 4.74 | -0.22 | 9 |
| Zone | 57.2% | 421 | 58.2% | 5.60 | -0.18 | 6 |
| Cover 1 | 34.4% | 133 | 41.4% | 4.50 | -0.35 | 4 |
| Cover 3 | 22.5% | 175 | 57.1% | 5.43 | -0.19 | 3 |
| Cover 2 | 18.2% | 161 | 62.7% | 5.66 | -0.06 | 2 |
Mix fit: weighted by PHI's coverage diet he sits at -0.23 EPA/att vs his -0.19 overall (covers 99% of their shells).
Rates are last season, league-wide vs each coverage (a sample vs one defense is too small), from participation charting. Usage % is the opponent's charted pass plays. EPA/att = expected points added per attempt; positive = above expectation. TD is the raw count thrown vs that bucket, context only.
Where the opponent is vulnerable (rank 1 = toughest, 32 = most vulnerable; green = favorable) against where Ward runs.
| Direction | PHI allows | Ward | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPC | TD/g | Rank | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | |
| Left | 46.6 | 4.15 | 0.50 | #20 | 3 | 16 | 5.33 | 0 |
| Middle | 29.3 | 4.54 | 0.39 | #18 | 20 | 105 | 5.25 | 1 |
| Right | 49.5 | 4.66 | 0.28 | #19 | 13 | 69 | 5.31 | 1 |
Prior season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game; the player's are season totals with YPC.