Monday Night Football Props: My 3 Best Bets for Bills vs Rams (Week 5)

Nacua has had a catch longer than 26.5 yards in both games he has played this year (41 and 32 yards) and in 7 of his last 10, which hits the 70% bar I look for. He saw 12 targets last week, so the volume is right where it should be.

Buffalo has been giving up chunk plays to receivers. In three of the Bills' four games, an opposing wide receiver has had a catch of 29 yards or longer: Jaylin Noel (35), Amon-Ra St. Brown (34), and both Ladd McConkey and Tre Harris (29 each). The Bills are also allowing 9.3 targets a game to WR1s, 4th most in the league, and Nacua is averaging 10.5.

The head-to-head is a mixed bag. Nacua torched Buffalo in 2024 for 12 catches on 14 targets, but his longest that day was 21 yards, so he would not have cashed this prop. I am treating that as a tiebreaker only. With a 54.5 total and the Rams implied for about 29 points, there will be plenty of throws, and it only takes one. Some books have moved to 27.5, where the model drops to a LEAN at 56%, so shop for 26.5.

A SMASH on the model's card at 66%. On the surface the hit rate is a coin flip: Cook has cleared 1.5 catches in 2 of 4 games this year and 5 of his last 10. This is where the min/max step earns its keep. When he sees 3 or more targets, he has gone over in 17 of his last 20 such games.

The Rams give running backs those targets. They allowed the 6th most catches to running backs last season and are giving up 4.8 a game this year. Christian McCaffrey caught 5 against them, Cam Skattebo caught 4, and RJ Harvey caught 6 out of the backfield.

Game script points the same way. Buffalo is a 3.5-point underdog in the highest total of the week, so Josh Allen should be throwing, and Cook caught both of his targets in his one game against the Rams in 2024. The risk: he had just 1 target against the Chargers in Week 3, when the Bills ran him 24 times. If Buffalo controls this game on the ground, the catches dry up.

A LEAN from the model at 52%, and the price is nearly even money. Williams has had a run longer than 15.5 yards in 3 of 4 games this year (20, 30, and 23 yards) and in 7 of his last 10. He is averaging 5.4 yards a carry.

Buffalo is right in the middle here. Two of the four lead backs the Bills have faced broke one longer than 15.5 yards: David Montgomery (18) and Jahmyr Gibbs (16). The Bills are also allowing 99 rushing yards a game to running backs, which ranks 23rd, so there is room to run against this front.

The head-to-head is the caution flag. Williams carried 29 times against Buffalo in 2024 and his longest run was 12 yards. I weigh that less than this year's form, but it is why this is the last leg on the card and not the first. The Rams are favored and implied for about 29 points, so he should have the carries. He just needs one crease.