Monday Night Football Props: 3 Best Bets and a TD Scorer for Each Team (Commanders vs 49ers, Week 6)
By J.B. Wright·
First, how last week's Monday Night Football props did: 0-3, a rough night. Puka Nacua's longest catch was 21 yards against an over 26.5, James Cook caught 1 pass against an over 1.5, and Kyren Williams' longest run was 12 yards against an over 15.5. All three missed, and I am not going to hide it.
Monday Night Football gives us Commanders at 49ers. The total is 52 and San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite, which puts the 49ers near 30 implied points and the Commanders near 22. Both teams have receivers on the injury report. Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable for Washington after missing last week, and Mike Evans (ribs) and Christian Kirk (calf) are questionable for San Francisco, where Deebo Samuel Sr. is already out. Washington's lead back Jacory Croskey-Merritt is out, and so is 49ers pass rusher Nick Bosa.
How I think this game plays out: my model has 49ers 29.9, Commanders 23.3, close to the market. San Francisco should lead most of the night, so Washington spends a lot of it throwing to catch up. On the other side, Washington's pass defense has been one of the softest in the league: it allows 268.8 passing yards a game, 4th most, and 2.8 passing touchdowns a game, 2nd most. That script shapes every pick below.
This card is a little different. Two of the three props are model plays, and the third is one where the research is stronger than the model's number, and I will tell you exactly where the model disagrees. Every pick went through my 9-step research process. Below the props is one anytime touchdown scorer for each team, and this week they are players with a real shot to score, not long shots. Bet them small and read the reasoning, not just the line.
Primetime Props
1. Terry McLaurin Longest Reception Over 20.5
WAS vs SF·-110 @ DraftKingsSMASH
Model 60% vs market 51%
A SMASH from the model at 60%, and the best play of the night. McLaurin has had a catch longer than 20.5 yards in 3 of 4 games this year (26, 30, and 22 yards) and in 7 of his last 10. He is the deep threat in this offense at 14.8 yards a catch, and he had a 42-yarder the last time he saw San Francisco.
San Francisco has a good pass defense overall, but WR1s still get theirs. The 49ers allow 9 targets a game to WR1s, 7th most in the league, and the average longest catch by an opposing WR1 is 26.6 yards. Puka Nacua had a 41-yarder against them and Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a 38-yarder last week.
The game script is the clincher. If San Francisco leads like the spread says, Washington has to push the ball downfield, and McLaurin is the one Jayden Daniels looks for. The risk is Week 1, when he saw 4 targets and his longest was 8 yards. One catch is all this needs, so shop for 20.5 at -110. BetMGM and Bovada are at -120.
My model projects Williams for 31.4 receiving yards, well over this number. It graded him a SMASH this morning at 20.5, and the line has since moved up to 22.5, so the market is catching on. The rookie has gone over 22.5 in 3 of 5 games (64, 24, and 31 yards), and he has 22 targets in 5 games as the third receiver.
The Diggs news matters here. If Diggs sits again, Williams moves up the depth chart. If Diggs plays, Williams still has a steady role: his best target game (8) came in Week 4 with Diggs on the field.
I will be honest about the matchup: San Francisco gives up very little to third receivers, and opposing WR3s have averaged just 1.2 targets a game against them. This pick is about Washington's volume, not the 49ers' weakness. If Washington is chasing, Daniels throws more, and Williams has caught 15 of his 22 targets. Take 22.5 at DraftKings or BetRivers; FanDuel is already at 23.5.
This is the research pick, and the model disagrees: it projects Kittle for 50.8 yards, because he has averaged 5.6 targets a game this year, below his usual. Here is why I am going the other way. Kittle has cleared 62.5 in 3 of 5 games this year (80, 82, and 70 yards) and in 7 of his last 10.
Washington cannot cover tight ends. It allows 64.8 receiving yards a game to TE1s, 3rd most in the league, and 3 of the 5 tight ends it has faced cleared this number: Isaiah Likely (94), Dallas Goedert (77), and AJ Barner (69).
The injuries push targets his way, too. Deebo Samuel Sr. is out, and Mike Evans and Christian Kirk are both questionable. If Evans sits or is limited, Kittle is Brock Purdy's top target by default. The risk is the game script: if San Francisco runs away with it, the 49ers lean on Christian McCaffrey in the second half. Bet it smaller than the McLaurin play, and take 62.5 at BetRivers, since most books are at 65.5 to 67.5.
One anytime touchdown pick for each side. No long shots this time: these are two of the most likely scorers in the game, at prices that still pay well.
1. George Kittle Anytime TD
SF vs WAS·+105 @ DraftKings
WAS has allowed 6 TE1 TDs in 5 games
This is the best matchup in the game. Washington has allowed 6 touchdowns to opposing TE1s in 5 games, the most in the league, and it allows 2 red-zone targets a game to them, also the most. Likely, Goedert, and Jake Ferguson each scored twice against Washington.
Kittle has scored in 3 of 5 games this year (4 touchdowns) and has 6 red-zone targets. The model is lower on him at 33%, but San Francisco is implied for 30 points, and in Washington's games the tight end has been the one finishing drives. At plus money, I will take it.
With Croskey-Merritt out, Washington's best scoring option is its top receiver. McLaurin drew 2 red-zone targets last week against the Giants, and San Francisco gives WR1s 1.6 red-zone targets a game, 4th most in the league. Puka Nacua, Michael Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all faced them, and three of the four scored.
The model has him at 20%, lower than the price, because Washington is only implied for 22 points. I am betting on the role: he has 1 touchdown in 4 games this year and scored in 3 of his last 10. Shop for it: BetMGM has +230, and most books are at +200 to +220.
The three props rolled into one ticket, priced at the best odds listed on each card. The touchdown picks are not included; bet those on their own. Two of these legs come from Washington's passing game, so they are not fully independent. Research, not betting advice.
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FAQ
What is a player prop?
A player prop is a bet on one player's stats instead of the game result, like how many receiving yards a tight end gets or how long a receiver's longest catch is. You bet the over or the under on the line the sportsbook sets.
What does a longest reception prop mean?
It is a bet on the length of a player's single longest catch in the game. Over 20.5 wins if he has at least one catch of 21 yards or more. It only takes one play, which makes it swingy, so target volume matters: more targets means more chances.
What is an anytime touchdown bet?
An anytime touchdown bet wins if the player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime. It pays the listed odds whether he scores once or three times.
Why bet a prop the model does not like?
The model is a starting point, not the final word. When the matchup and the recent game logs point strongly the other way, I will make the bet and tell you where the model disagrees, so you can decide for yourself.
Founder of Propaholics, builder of the prop model. Picks on Propaholics are graded honestly and tracked every week, so you can judge the model for yourself. See the full model track record.
