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NFL - Week 8 - 2+ TD Picks

NFL 2+ Touchdown Picks for Week 8: 4 Backs Built to Score Twice

By J.B. Wright·October 31, 2026

These are my 2+ touchdown picks for NFL Week 8. Last week's card went 0 for 5, and I am not going to dress that up. Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Derrick Henry did not score at all, and Christian McCaffrey and Javonte Williams each scored once. That is what these bets look like most weeks. You need one to hit at a long price to pay for the card.

This week there are four, all running backs who own the goal line. Henry is the one I pinned. The other three come from the top of my model's 2+ touchdown list: Gibbs, Javonte, and James Cook. I ran all four through the same 9-step process I use for all my props. The model calls three of them about fair and leans on one, Cook, the only player on this card it thinks the market has underpriced.

Two numbers show up on every pick. The first is his repeat profile: when he scores, how often does he score again? The average running back who scores goes on to score a second time about 21% of the time, so a back well above that is built for this bet.

The second is the min/max read. I set a carries range for the back. The low end is what he usually gets this season, and the high end is the most carries a lead back has gotten against this defense this year. Then I only count his games inside that range since 2023 and see how often he scored twice.

2+ Touchdown Picks

1. Derrick Henry 2+ Touchdowns Over 1.5

BAL vs BUF·+240 @ DraftKings / FanDuelPASS

Model 31% vs market 31%

This game has the biggest total on the Sunday slate at 54.5. Baltimore is a 3-point road underdog implied for 25.8 points, so the books expect both teams to move the ball. The forecast in Buffalo is about 65 degrees with 9 mph wind and no rain, so weather should not get in the way. The only Ravens player on the injury report is an offensive lineman. Near the goal line, Baltimore is Henry: he has 50.7% of the Ravens' red-zone chances this season and 60% of their chances inside the 5.

Buffalo has allowed 6 rushing touchdowns in 6 games, and once teams get close, they finish: opponents have scored a touchdown on 18 of 25 red-zone trips (72%) and 12 of 14 trips inside the 5. Four of the six lead backs the Bills have faced scored, and David Montgomery scored 3 times on 20 carries in Week 1. Since 2025, a player has scored twice on Buffalo in 12 of 23 games, and 7 of them were running backs. Henry is one of them.

That is the head-to-head, and it is the best one on the card: Henry has played Buffalo twice as a Raven and scored twice both times (24 carries in 2024, 18 carries in 2025). This season he has scored in 5 of 7 games and scored twice in 2 of them: 3 touchdowns against Indianapolis and 2 against Dallas. Since 2023, when he scores, he scores again 42% of the time (15 of 36 games), double the average back. The min/max read: he averages 21 carries, more than any lead back has gotten against Buffalo this year (20), so I counted his games with 20 or more carries. Since 2023, he scored twice in 11 of 23. With 6 or more red-zone looks, it is 6 of 8.

The model calls it a PASS, 30.8% against a 30.5% market, so it sees the price as fair. The risk is his last two games: he was held to 17 carries and 4 red-zone looks in each, and did not score. The case is the matchup history, the defense, and the goal-line role. This is my anchor.

Derrick Henry on the board

2. Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ Touchdowns Over 1.5

DET vs MIN·+220 @ BetRiversPASS

Model 32% vs market 33%

Detroit is a 3.5-point home favorite in a 45.5 total, implied for 24.5 points, and the game is indoors at Ford Field. Neither team has anyone on the injury report. Gibbs is the Lions' red zone: he has 49.4% of their red-zone chances this season and 59.1% of their chances inside the 5.

This is the toughest matchup on the card, and I want to be upfront about it. Minnesota has allowed only 3 rushing touchdowns in 6 games, and opponents have scored a touchdown on just 3 of 13 red-zone trips (23.1%). No lead back has gotten more than 18 carries against them this year, and none has scored twice. Since 2025, only two backs have scored twice on the Vikings: Kenny Gainwell and Emanuel Wilson.

So why is he here? Because Gibbs has done it to them before. He has scored twice against Minnesota in 3 of his 6 games since 2023, including a 4-touchdown game in 2024. This season he has scored in 5 of 6 games and scored twice in 3 of them: New Orleans, 3 touchdowns against the Jets, and Arizona. Since 2023, when he scores, he scores again 44% of the time (16 of 36 games), the best repeat profile on this card. The min/max read: the most carries a lead back has gotten against Minnesota is 18, and he averages 22, so I counted his games with 18 or more carries. Since 2023, he scored twice in 6 of 13, and 4 of 7 since 2025. With 6 or more red-zone looks, it is 7 of 13, and 3 of 4 this season.

The model gives him the best chance on the whole board to score twice, 31.8%, against a 32.8% market, so it calls the price about fair. The risk is plain: he was shut out in both games against Minnesota last season, and this defense has been great in the red zone. The case is his volume and his history against Minnesota.

Jahmyr Gibbs on the board

3. Javonte Williams 2+ Touchdowns Over 1.5

DAL vs ARI·+230 @ DraftKingsPASS

Model 30% vs market 31%

This is the best scoring spot on the card. Dallas is a 7-point home favorite in a 54.5 total, implied for 30.8 points, the highest team total of the week, and the game is under the roof at AT&T Stadium. KaVontae Turpin is out and George Pickens is questionable. Javonte owns the goal line: he has 38.6% of the Cowboys' red-zone chances and 63% of their chances inside the 5, the biggest share on this card.

Arizona has allowed 8 rushing touchdowns in 7 games, and opponents have scored a touchdown on 17 of 24 red-zone trips (70.8%). Gibbs ran it 25 times and scored twice against them in Week 5. Since 2025, a player has scored twice on Arizona in 10 of 24 games, and 5 of them were running backs, including a 3-touchdown game from Christian McCaffrey.

Javonte has scored in 6 of 7 games this season and scored twice in 2: 2 touchdowns against the Giants and 3 against Houston, on 8 red-zone looks. He is 0 for 1 against Arizona (15 carries last year). His repeat profile is the weakest on the card: since 2023, he has scored twice in 6 of his 24 scoring games (25%), only a little above the average back. The min/max read: he averages 16 carries, and the most a lead back has gotten against Arizona this year is 25 (Gibbs). In his games with 16 to 25 carries since 2023, he scored twice in only 2 of 16. With 5 or more red-zone looks, it is 4 of 15, and 2 of 4 this season.

The model calls it a PASS, 29.8% against a 31.3% market. His own history says this is harder than the price suggests. The case is the environment: the highest team total on the slate, a defense that gives up touchdowns in the red zone, and a back who gets almost two thirds of the chances inside the 5.

Javonte Williams on the board

4. James Cook 2+ Touchdowns Over 1.5

BUF vs BAL·+380 @ FanDuelLEAN

Model 25% vs market 23%

Same game as Henry, other side. Buffalo is a 3-point home favorite implied for 28.8 points, and the forecast is dry. The injury report could help him: DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid are both questionable, and if either sits, that is one less red-zone target for Josh Allen. Cook has 36.4% of the Bills' red-zone chances this season and 42.1% of their chances inside the 5. The catch is Allen himself, who takes his own share of the carries at the goal line.

Baltimore has allowed 8 rushing touchdowns in 7 games, and opponents have scored a touchdown on 16 of 24 red-zone trips (66.7%) and 10 of 14 trips inside the 5. Four of the seven lead backs the Ravens have faced scored, and Jonathan Taylor scored twice on 19 carries in Week 1. Since 2025, three backs have scored twice on Baltimore: David Montgomery, Gibbs, and Taylor.

Cook has scored in 5 of 6 games this season and scored twice once, on 25 carries against the Rams. Since 2023, when he scores, he scores again 35% of the time (11 of 31 games). Against Baltimore he has 1 touchdown in 2 games. The min/max read: he averages about 19.5 carries, and the most a lead back has gotten against Baltimore this year is 19, so I counted his games with 19 or more carries. Since 2023, he scored twice in 5 of 17, and 4 of 12 since 2025. With 5 or more red-zone looks, it is 5 of 13.

This is the one the model likes: 25.1% against a 22.9% market, a LEAN. It is also the longest price on the card at +380. The risk is Allen at the goal line. The case is the second-highest team total of the week and a model that thinks the books have this one wrong. Smallest bet, biggest payout.

James Cook on the board

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Why 2+ TD bets are small bets

A 2+ touchdown bet only cashes if a player scores twice, and even the best goal-line backs do that in a minority of games. That is why the odds are long. Treat these as small bets, a fraction of a normal unit, and expect most weeks to miss, like last week did. One hit at these prices covers a lot of misses. New to touchdown bets? Start here: What Is an Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet?

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FAQ

What is a 2+ touchdown bet?

A 2+ touchdown bet wins if your player scores two or more touchdowns in the game, rushing or receiving. Passing touchdowns do not count. It is also listed as Over 1.5 touchdowns at most sportsbooks.

How does a 2+ touchdown bet pay?

The odds are long, often +150 to +1500, because scoring twice is rare. A small stake can pay several times over, which is why these are treated as small bets.

Why does the model grade 2+ TDs differently?

It is a low-probability market, so a few percentage points matter more than they do on an anytime TD. The model compares its number to the market on every card, and I show both, including where I overrule it.

How are these 2+ touchdown picks chosen?

This week, from my own pin plus the players my model gives the best chance to score twice, run through my 9-step process. The key reads are goal-line role, the player's repeat profile, the defense's red-zone touchdown rate, and the team total.

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About the author

J.B. Wright

Founder of Propaholics, builder of the prop model. Picks on Propaholics are graded honestly and tracked every week, so you can judge the model for yourself. See the full model track record.

Propaholics model-driven MLB & NFL prop picks.