Sunday Night Football Props: 3 Best Bets and a TD Scorer for Each Team (Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7)
By J.B. Wright·
First, how last week's Sunday Night Football props did: 1-2. Christian Watson cashed his longest reception over 26.5 with a 28-yard catch. CeeDee Lamb was the big miss: 19 targets, but his longest catch was 17 yards against an over 25.5. Javonte Williams caught 2 passes for 9 yards, short of his over 13.5. On the touchdown side, Ryan Flournoy scored at +420 and Kaleb Johnson did not. I called that game a shootout, and Green Bay won 23-13. Lesson taken: this week I am betting on roles and matchups, not on a game script I cannot control.
Sunday Night Football gives us Chiefs at Seahawks, and the storyline writes itself. Kenneth Walker III was the Super Bowl MVP for Seattle in February, signed with Kansas City this spring, and now goes back to Lumen Field for the first time. Kansas City is 5-0. Seattle is 3-3 after losing three of its last four, all by 3 points or less, and comes in rested after playing last Thursday. The total is 42.5, one of the lowest of the week, and Seattle is a 2.5-point home favorite, which puts the Seahawks near 22.5 implied points and the Chiefs near 20. The forecast is overcast and about 57 degrees with almost no wind, so weather is not a factor.
The injury report matters on both sides. For Kansas City, Rashee Rice (hamstring), Travis Kelce (ankle), and cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (knee) are questionable. Seattle has five linebackers listed as questionable, including DeMarcus Lawrence, Drake Thomas, and Uchenna Nwosu, and running back Zach Charbonnet is questionable as he works back from his ACL. Check the final report before you bet.
How I think this game plays out: low scoring and physical. These are two of the best defenses in the league. Seattle allows the fewest passing yards per attempt in the NFL, and Kansas City allows the 2nd fewest receiving yards to number one receivers. My model agrees with the market almost exactly: Seahawks 22.5, Chiefs 20. In a game like that, I want volume I can count on and the one receiver good enough to beat a great defense, and I want to bet against the quarterback who has to throw into Seattle's secondary. The model calls all three props close to a coin flip, so these are research picks, not model plays. I ran each one through my 9-step research process and worked in receiver alignment, where each defense gives up yards and touchdowns. Bet them small and read the reasoning, not just the line.
Primetime Props
1. Kenneth Walker III Rush Attempts Over 18.5
KC vs SEA·-113 @ DraftKings
Model 49% vs market 50%
Walker has gone over 18.5 carries in 4 of 5 games for Kansas City (23, 24, 22, and 19), and the one miss was 18. He averages 21.2 carries a game, 2nd most in the league behind Derrick Henry, and he has 106 of the Chiefs' 139 running back carries, 76%. This is the most dependable role in the game.
I am betting on his carries and not his yards for a reason. Seattle is a brick wall against the run: 3.7 yards per carry allowed, 4th lowest in the league, and no lead back has run for more than 68 yards against them this year. But teams still run on Seattle, 26.5 times a game, 12th most in the league. A great run defense cuts down yards, not attempts, so this prop dodges the toughest part of the matchup.
The game script works for him too. Walker's carries do not dry up when Kansas City falls behind: 24 of his carries this year came while trailing. And the Chiefs have reasons to lean on him. Seattle's secondary is the best in football, and Kansas City's top two pass catchers, Rice and Kelce, are both questionable. The model has him at 49%, right at the market, because its projection is 18.9 carries. I trust the role over the projection. The risk is a blowout either way, which could pull him early.
This is the one prop the model leans toward, at 53%. Smith-Njigba's longest catch has gone over 27.5 yards in 5 of 6 games this year (45, 82, 28, 38, and 32), and the miss was 26. He cashed this exact line for us on Thursday night in Week 6. He has 6 catches of 28 yards or more in 6 games, so he usually clears this with room to spare.
The volume is what makes it work against a great defense. He has 35% of Seattle's targets, the biggest share in the game, and saw 16 last week in Denver. His average target travels 10.5 yards downfield, and he has drawn 10 targets of 20 or more air yards. A longest-catch prop only needs one play, and he is going to get a lot of chances.
Here is the honest part. Kansas City allows the 2nd fewest receiving yards to WR1s in the league, and in the alignment data it is stingy out wide (4th fewest yards allowed), where Smith-Njigba runs 71% of his routes. But look at who those WR1s were: Jaylen Waddle, Keenan Allen, Malik Washington, Tre Tucker, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith. None of them is the receiver he is. The Chiefs have still given up 6 catches of 28 yards or more in 5 games,, and their cornerback L'Jarius Sneed is questionable.
This is the pick where I am going against the model. It projects Mahomes for 257 yards and leans over at 52%. I am taking the under because of what Seattle has done to every quarterback it has faced: Drake Maye 178 yards, Jacoby Brissett 95, Marcus Mariota 183, Justin Herbert 189, Brock Purdy 189, and Bo Nix 107. Six games, six quarterbacks under 190 yards.
This is not a soft schedule getting lucky. Seattle allows 4.8 yards per pass attempt, the lowest in the league, and only 1.3 completions of 20 yards or more a game, also the fewest. Teams throw on them plenty, 30 attempts a game, and still cannot get the yards. In the alignment data, Seattle allows the fewest yards in the league to receivers in the slot and to tight ends lined up inline, where Kelce runs 76% of his routes. And Kelce and Rice are both questionable.
The risk is obvious: he is Patrick Mahomes. He has gone over 221.5 in 4 of 5 games this year, including 382 yards against Indianapolis, and Seattle has still given up 8 passing touchdowns. But Kansas City does not need him to throw 40 times when it has Walker, and in a 42.5 total I expect the Chiefs to keep it on the ground. If Kansas City falls behind by two scores, this one is in trouble.
Like Thursday: one anytime touchdown pick for each side. In a low total, I want the players who get the ball near the goal line, not the long shots.
1. Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD
KC vs SEA·-125 @ FanDuel
Model 55% vs market 57%
The shortest price on the card, and the most likely scorer in the game. Walker has scored twice in 4 of his 5 games for Kansas City, 8 touchdowns in all. He gets 59% of the Chiefs' red-zone chances and 70% of their chances inside the 5-yard line. When Kansas City gets close, the ball goes to him.
Seattle stops the run between the 20s, but it has given up 4 rushing touchdowns to running backs in its last 3 games (Omarion Hampton, Christian McCaffrey, J.K. Dobbins, and RJ Harvey). Walker has also scored in 6 of his 11 primetime games since 2023. The model has him at 55%, a touch under the market, so shop for -125 or better: some books are at -135 or shorter.
This is a price pick. The model has Wilson at 47%, close to the market's 48%, but BetRivers has him at +160, which only implies 38%. Most books are at +100 to +110 (BetMGM is at +150), so that price is the bet.
Wilson is Seattle's lead back, with 20 or more carries in 3 of his last 5 games, and he has 3 touchdowns in his last 3 games. He gets 29% of Seattle's red-zone chances and 39% of the chances inside the 5, more than anyone else on the team. The risk is Zach Charbonnet. He is questionable as he comes back from his ACL, and if he plays, he will take some of that goal-line work. Kansas City has also allowed only 3 rushing touchdowns all year. Check Charbonnet's status before you bet, and keep this one small.
The three props rolled into one ticket, priced at the best odds listed on each card. The touchdown picks are not included; bet those on their own. The Walker and Mahomes legs are tied together: if Kansas City runs a lot, both should hit, and if it has to throw to catch up, both are in trouble. Research, not betting advice.
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FAQ
What is a player prop?
A player prop is a bet on one player's stats instead of the game result, like how many times a running back carries the ball or how many passing yards a quarterback throws for. You bet the over or the under on the line the sportsbook sets.
What does a rush attempts prop mean?
It is a bet on how many times a player carries the ball. Over 18.5 wins if he has 19 or more carries. It does not care how many yards he gains, which makes it a good way to bet on a player's role against a tough run defense.
What is an anytime touchdown bet?
An anytime touchdown bet wins if the player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime. It pays the listed odds whether he scores once or three times.
Will you post props for every primetime game?
That is the plan. Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games each get their own post with my favorite props for that matchup.
Founder of Propaholics, builder of the prop model. Picks on Propaholics are graded honestly and tracked every week, so you can judge the model for yourself. See the full model track record.
