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NFL - Week 6 - Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football Props: 3 Best Bets and a TD Scorer for Each Team (Cowboys vs Packers, Week 6)

By J.B. Wright·October 17, 2026

First, how last week's Sunday Night Football props did: 2-1. Michael Penix Jr. cashed his over 217.5 pass + rush yards with 248, and Bijan Robinson caught 4 passes to clear his over 3.5. Derrick Henry was the miss: his longest run was 11 yards against an over 16.5.

Sunday Night Football gives us Cowboys at Packers, and this one sets up as a shootout. The total is 53, the second highest on Sunday's board, and Green Bay is a 1-point favorite, which puts the Packers near 27 implied points and the Cowboys near 26. The forecast at Lambeau Field is clear and about 51 degrees with a 9 mph wind, so weather is not a factor. No skill-position starter on either team is on the injury report. The one to watch is on defense: Green Bay's starting cornerback Brandon Cisse, who has played 92% of the snaps this year, is questionable.

How I think this game plays out: my model likes Green Bay more than the market does. It projects Packers 30.3, Cowboys 23.7, and gives Green Bay a 69% chance to win, against a spread that calls it close to a coin flip. If that is right, Dallas spends a lot of the night throwing to catch up. Dak Prescott is already averaging 39 pass attempts a game, and Green Bay plays zone on 80% of its snaps, which is where the underneath throws to the backs and the in-breaking routes to Lamb live. That script shapes every pick below.

In a 53-point game I want players whose role guarantees volume. All three props are plays my model grades a SMASH or a LEAN, and I ran each one through my 9-step research process. Like Thursday, below the props I added one anytime touchdown scorer for each team. Bet them small and read the reasoning, not just the line.

Primetime Props

1. CeeDee Lamb Longest Reception Over 25.5

DAL vs GB·-115 @ BetMGMSMASH

Model 64% vs market 51%

A SMASH from the model at 64%, and it is the best play of the night. Lamb has had a catch longer than 25.5 yards in 3 of 5 games this year (38, 49, and 30 yards), 9 of 13 last season, and 33 of 50 since 2023. He shows up under the lights, too: 14 for 19 in primetime games since 2023.

Green Bay is not the place to fade him. The Packers allow 79.2 receiving yards a game to WR1s this year, 9th most in the league. Drake London went for 194 yards and a 68-yard catch against them, and Justin Jefferson had a 39-yarder. And Green Bay's starting cornerback Brandon Cisse, who has played 92% of the snaps this year, is questionable. If he sits, Lamb gets an even better matchup.

The min/max step is where this one locks in. When Lamb sees 8 or more targets, his longest catch has cleared 25.5 in 28 of 38 games since 2023, and he has seen 8 or more in 4 of 5 games this year, including 21 against Houston. The risk is Week 5: 5 targets, 2 catches, and a long of 5 yards against Tampa Bay, his quietest game in a long time. One game does not erase two years of this, and the game script points to Dallas throwing a lot.

CeeDee Lamb on the board

2. Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Over 13.5

DAL vs GB·-108 @ DraftKingsSMASH

Model 59% vs market 50%

A SMASH at 59%. Williams has gone over 13.5 receiving yards in 4 of 5 games this year (31, 20, 21, and 17 yards), and he is 2 for 2 against Green Bay since 2023 (14 and 15 yards). He is seeing 4 targets a game, and when he gets 4 or more, he has cleared this line in 15 of 24 games since 2023.

Green Bay gives backs room underneath. The Packers allow 22.4 receiving yards a game to lead backs this year, 8th most in the league. Breece Hall caught 5 for 63 against them in Week 2, and D'Andre Swift caught 4 for 30 last week.

This is the game-script leg. If my model is right and Dallas is chasing, the check-downs to the back pile up, and Williams is the lead back, with 14.8 carries a game and 6 rushing touchdowns. The risk is the flip side. If Dallas leads, he carries the ball and the targets dry up, which is what happened in his 5-yard game against Baltimore (3 targets). At -108 for a number this low, I will take the volume.

Javonte Williams on the board

3. Christian Watson Longest Reception Over 26.5

GB vs DAL·-120 @ BetMGMLEAN

Model 58% vs market 52%

The model grades this a LEAN at 58%. Watson has had a catch longer than 26.5 yards in 3 of 5 games this year (81, 34, and 53 yards) and in 6 of his last 10. He is Green Bay's downfield receiver: his average target travels 13.4 yards past the line, well above the league's 11.7, and he has a third of the team's air yards.

Dallas gave up the 3rd most receiving yards to wide receivers in the league last season, and it is still middle of the pack this year at 71.8 yards a game to WR1s. Nico Collins had a 45-yard catch against them and Zay Flowers had a 27-yarder.

The volume check: when Watson sees 7 or more targets, he has cleared this line in 7 of 13 games since 2023, and he has had 8 or more in 4 of 5 games this year. The risk is his down weeks. He had 3 targets and an 18-yard long against Tampa Bay in Week 4. This is a LEAN for a reason, so it is the smallest bet of the three. Shop for 26.5: DraftKings has already moved to 27.5.

Christian Watson on the board

One touchdown scorer for each team

Like Thursday: one anytime touchdown pick for each side. In a 53-point game there should be plenty of touchdowns to go around, so I want the scorers the market is underrating, not the obvious names at a short price.

1. Kaleb Johnson Anytime TD

GB vs DAL·+650 @ DraftKingsSMASH

Model 25% vs market 15%

The Packers pick is the model's favorite touchdown bet in the game: 25% against a market price of about 15%. I will be honest about why the price is this long. Johnson has not scored in 14 NFL games, and he is the third back in Green Bay. But he is getting work: 8, 4, 8, and 7 carries in four games this year, with 2 red-zone carries against Tampa Bay.

The matchup is the case. Dallas has allowed 7 touchdowns to running backs in 5 games, and two of them went to backups on 6 carries: Woody Marks and Devin Singletary. Green Bay is implied for 27 points, and my model has the Packers scoring 30. In a game with that many trips to the red zone, the back who gets a few carries a game has a real shot. Small bet, long price.

Kaleb Johnson on the board

2. Ryan Flournoy Anytime TD

DAL vs GB·+420 @ BetRivers

Model 22% vs market 23%

This is a role pick, not a model pick. The model has Flournoy at 21.5%, right at the market, but the best price is +420 at BetRivers, which only implies about 19%, so that book is a touch long. Shop for it: most books are at +310 to +350.

The case is red-zone work. Flournoy has drawn 6 red-zone targets in 5 games this year, including 4 against Baltimore, and he has 10.9% of Dallas' red-zone chances, up from 4% last season. He scored in 4 of 13 games last year. He splits his routes almost evenly between out wide (48%) and the slot (52%), and Green Bay has allowed 3 touchdowns to receivers lined up wide, its most of any spot. With Lamb and Pickens drawing the attention, the third receiver is the one getting open looks near the goal line.

Ryan Flournoy on the board

The props parlay

+560

1CeeDee Lamb over 25.5 longest reception
2Javonte Williams over 13.5 receiving yards
3Christian Watson over 26.5 longest reception

The three props rolled into one ticket, priced at the best odds listed on each card. The touchdown picks are not included; bet those on their own. Two of these legs come from the same team, so they are not fully independent. Research, not betting advice.

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FAQ

What is a player prop?

A player prop is a bet on one player's stats instead of the game result, like how many receiving yards a running back gets or how long a receiver's longest catch is. You bet the over or the under on the line the sportsbook sets.

What does a longest reception prop mean?

It is a bet on the length of a player's single longest catch in the game. Over 25.5 wins if he has at least one catch of 26 yards or more. It only takes one play, which makes it swingy, so target volume matters: more targets means more chances.

What is an anytime touchdown bet?

An anytime touchdown bet wins if the player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime. It pays the listed odds whether he scores once or three times.

Will you post props for every primetime game?

That is the plan. Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games each get their own post with my favorite props for that matchup.

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About the author

J.B. Wright

Founder of Propaholics, builder of the prop model. Picks on Propaholics are graded honestly and tracked every week, so you can judge the model for yourself. See the full model track record.

Propaholics model-driven MLB & NFL prop picks.