Sunday Night Football Props: My 3 Best Bets for Ravens vs Falcons (Week 5)

My favorite play of the night. Penix has cleared this number in both of his starts this season (254 and 221 combined yards) and in 6 of his last 10. He also shows up under the lights: 5 for 6 over this line in primetime games since 2024.

Baltimore's pass defense is the reason. The Ravens are allowing 253 passing yards a game, 27th in the league, and three of the four quarterbacks they have faced cleared 217.5 combined yards: Tyler Shough (275), Dak Prescott (295), and Cam Ward (249). Only Daniel Jones (170) fell short.

The min/max check agrees. In the 10 games where Penix has thrown between 23 and 41 passes, the range this matchup points to, he has cleared this line 7 times. The risk is game script: if Atlanta jumps on a Ravens team without Lamar, the Falcons could lean on Bijan Robinson and shorten the game. I still like it at this number. Some books are hanging 222.5, so shop for 217.5.

The model grades this a SMASH at 59%, and the hit rate backs it: Henry has had a run longer than 16.5 yards in 8 of his last 10 games and in 10 of 14 primetime games since 2023. He is a true workhorse right now at 22 carries a game.

On paper Atlanta looks tough here. The longest runs by lead backs against the Falcons this year are 17, 12, 6, and 5 yards. But look at the volume behind those numbers: none of those backs had more than 12 carries. Henry has not had fewer than 16 in a game this season. More carries means more chances to break one.

The real risk is Lamar. In the four games Henry played without him last season, his longest runs were 7, 12, 10, and 30 yards, so he only cleared this number once. Defenses load the box when they do not fear the quarterback. His one game against Atlanta since 2023 also came up short, with a long of 14. What I am betting on is volume: he averaged 24 carries in those four games without Lamar, and Huntley is a runner who keeps the option game alive.

This is the model's strongest play of the three, a SMASH at 67%, and it is also the one I trust the least, so let me give you both sides. Robinson cleared 3.5 catches in 11 of 17 games last season. This year he is 1 for 4, and the targets have dropped as the carries have climbed: 10 targets in Week 1, then 4, 2, and 2.

Here is why I am still on it. Baltimore allowed the 2nd most catches to running backs in the league last season, and this year lead backs are seeing 4.3 targets a game against the Ravens, 8th most. Alvin Kamara caught 5 against this defense in Week 2. When Robinson gets 5 or 6 targets, he has cleared this line in 6 of his last 10 such games. He has not faced Baltimore yet, so there is no head-to-head to lean on.

The risk is the same one as the Penix play, just flipped. If Atlanta is ahead, Robinson runs more and catches less: he had 29 carries and only 2 catches against Green Bay in Week 3. If this game stays close, the catches are there. If it gets out of hand, this is the leg that loses.