Thursday Night Football Props: 3 Best Bets and a TD Scorer for Each Team (Patriots vs Bears, Week 7)
By J.B. Wright·
First, how last week's Thursday Night Football props did: 3-0. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's longest catch went 32 yards (over 27.5), J.K. Dobbins carried it 17 times (over 13.5), and Cooper Kupp finished with 50 receiving yards (over 20.5). On the touchdown side, RJ Harvey scored at +290 and AJ Barner did not. A clean sweep does not make this week any easier, so the process stays the same.
Thursday Night Football gives us Patriots at Bears, and this one should have some points in it. The total is 50.5, the 3rd highest of the week, and Chicago is a 3-point home favorite, which puts the Bears near 26.8 implied points and the Patriots near 23.8. The forecast at Soldier Field is dry, about 55 degrees, with wind around 6 mph, so weather is not a factor. The injury report matters on both sides. Caleb Williams is questionable with a hamstring after throwing 40 passes in Week 6. Chicago has already ruled out running back Kyle Monangai and two starting linebackers, T.J. Edwards and Keyshaun Elliott. For New England, A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson are questionable with ankle injuries, and cornerback Carlton Davis III is out. The final report with game designations comes out Wednesday afternoon, so check it before you bet.
How I think this game plays out: close, with both offenses moving the ball. My model has it Bears 26.5, Patriots 23.7, a total of 50.1, and basically a coin flip against the spread. Chicago has started three different quarterbacks this year, and with Caleb Williams back last week, Luther Burden had his best game of the season. In the backfield, Monangai's injury has not handed D'Andre Swift every snap: Roschon Johnson took 13 carries in Week 6, so I am betting on Swift as a receiver, not a runner. New England will lean on Drake Maye's short passing game, where Hunter Henry has been the steadiest piece. That script shapes every pick below.
A quick note on the model: after our calibration update last week, it calls all three props close to a coin flip, so these are research picks, not model plays. I ran each one through my 9-step research process, and this week I leaned harder on receiver alignment, where each defense gives up yards and touchdowns: out wide, in the slot, inline, or out of the backfield. Bet them small and read the reasoning, not just the line.
Primetime Props
1. Luther Burden III Receiving Yards Over 57.5
CHI vs NE·-112 @ DraftKings
Model 48% vs market 50%
Burden has gone over 57.5 receiving yards in 4 of 6 games this year (63, 61, 63, and 95), and the two misses were 32 and 47. The volume is what sold me: 43 targets in six games, 7.2 a game, and at least 5 in every game. Last week, with Caleb Williams back under center, he caught 8 passes for 95 yards.
Two of the model's signals point his way. One is the shootout spot: Chicago is implied for 26.8 points, tied for the 2nd highest team total of the week. The other is a coverage edge: Burden gains 2.6 yards per route run against the coverage shells New England plays on 82% of its snaps. He has 9 red-zone targets this year, so the targets are coming in the spots that matter.
Here is the honest part. New England is tough on number two receivers, a top-5 defense against WR2s, and in the alignment data it is stingy in the slot (28th in yards allowed), where Burden runs 75 of his 139 charted routes. His other 64 routes come out wide, where the Patriots give up a lot more (11th most), and cornerback Carlton Davis III is out. The model has him at 48%, a hair under the market. I am betting on the targets and the shootout script over the matchup.
Henry has gone over 33.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games (40, 62, 44, and 48, with a 5-yard game against Jacksonville), and in 11 of 17 games last season. He has drawn 4 or 5 targets in 4 of his last 5, and 5 of his targets this year came in the red zone. He is the safety valve in this offense, which is what you want in a close game.
Alignment is why I like him over the obvious receivers. Henry splits his routes almost evenly between the slot (48 routes) and inline next to the tackle (52 routes). Chicago has been middle of the pack against both spots, 13th in yards allowed to inline receivers and 17th in the slot. Out wide is where the Bears get beat (6th most yards allowed), but that is A.J. Brown's spot, and he is questionable.
Here is the honest part. Chicago is a top-6 defense against TE1s, allowing 26.7 receiving yards a game to the position, and the model has Henry at 49%, a hair under the market. The Bears are also missing both starting linebackers, the players who usually cover tight ends over the middle. That is the bet: the backups cover the steadiest target in the offense.
This is the alignment pick. New England gives up 42.2 receiving yards a game to players lined up in the backfield, the 4th most in the NFL, on 5.6 targets a game, the 8th most. Swift runs 63 of his 68 charted routes out of the backfield, so he is the one player in this game lined up right where the Patriots leak.
His role in the passing game is growing. Swift drew 5 targets in each of his last two games and caught 4 both times, after 1 to 3 targets in three of his first four. On the year he is 3 for 6 over 2.5 catches, with 5, 4, and 4 in the games he cleared. Roschon Johnson has eaten into his carries, but not his targets: even in Week 5, when Johnson drew 7 targets, Swift still got 5.
The model has this at 49%, a coin flip on the numbers, and last season he cleared 2.5 catches in just 6 of 16 games. I am betting on the recent role and the matchup, not the long history. If you only bet one prop from this game, make it this one.
One anytime touchdown pick for each side. In a 50.5-point game there should be six or seven touchdowns, so I want players with a real role near the goal line and a matchup that points to them. The model has both of these a few points below their price, so these are alignment and role picks, not model picks.
1. Rome Odunze Anytime TD
CHI vs NE·+200 @ BetMGM
Model 33% vs market 36%
The Bears pick comes straight from the alignment data. New England has allowed 4 touchdowns to receivers lined up out wide in five games, tied for the 5th most in the league, while giving up just 2 in the slot and none inline or out of the backfield. Odunze runs 122 of his 155 charted routes out wide, more than anyone else on the Bears, and Carlton Davis III, one of the Patriots' starting cornerbacks, is out.
The honest part: Odunze has not scored yet this year, and he has 1 touchdown in his last 10 games. The volume is there, with 33 targets in six games, including 9 against Green Bay, and 4 red-zone targets, so the touchdown has been coming. The model has him at 33% against a +200 price, a few points short, so bet it small. He scored in 5 of 12 games last season.
The Patriots pick is the most likely scorer on their side. Stevenson has scored in 2 of his last 3 games, and he has 6 red-zone carries over those three, with 13 or more carries in each. If TreVeyon Henderson's ankle keeps him out or limited, the goal-line work gets even more concentrated.
Chicago has given up a receiving touchdown to a player out of the backfield this year, and Stevenson runs 86 of his 97 charted routes out of the backfield, so he can score either way. The model has him at 50% against a price that implies 53%, so it is close to fair. This is the pick if you want a likely touchdown, not a long shot.
The three props rolled into one ticket, priced at the best odds listed on each card. The touchdown picks are not included; bet those on their own. Two of these legs come from the same team, so they are not fully independent. Research, not betting advice.
Like these picks? Get the whole board.
These picks come straight off the Propaholics board. Unlock our model's odds, edge, and verdict on every NFL player prop, plus TD matchups, projections, and the daily report.
First, give us a follow: @PropaholicsApp on X and @propaholicsapp on Instagram. That is where the picks, the results, and the model notes go out all week.
Then tag us on your bet slip. Let me know if you are tailing any of these, and tag us just the same if you are fading one, because I genuinely want to hear the other side of every pick.
If you are on the free plan or do not have an account yet, start your 7-day free trial to unlock the full board: every market, the model's number on every player, and the full alignment splits.
FAQ
What is a player prop?
A player prop is a bet on one player's stats instead of the game result, like how many receiving yards a receiver gets or how many catches a running back makes. You bet the over or the under on the line the sportsbook sets.
What is an anytime touchdown bet?
An anytime touchdown bet wins if the player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime. It pays the listed odds whether he scores once or three times.
What does alignment mean in a prop pick?
Alignment is where a player lines up before the snap: out wide, in the slot, inline next to the tackle, or in the backfield. Defenses give up yards and touchdowns to some spots more than others, so matching a player's main spot to the defense's weak spot is one more way to find value.
Why pick props the model calls a coin flip?
The model is one input, not the whole process. When it calls a prop close to even, the role, the matchup, and the injury news decide it, and I say plainly where the model disagrees so you can weigh it yourself.
Founder of Propaholics, builder of the prop model. Picks on Propaholics are graded honestly and tracked every week, so you can judge the model for yourself. See the full model track record.
