Thursday Night Football Props: 3 Best Bets and a TD Scorer for Each Team (Seahawks vs Broncos, Week 6)
By J.B. Wright·
First, how last week's Thursday Night Football props did: 1-2. Kenny Gainwell cashed his over 1.5 receptions with 3 catches. Jake Ferguson finished one catch short at 3 (over 3.5), and Jalon Daniels ran for 25 yards (over 44.5). I would rather show you the misses than hide them.
Thursday Night Football gives us Seahawks at Broncos, and this one sets up as a grind. The total is 40.5, one of the lowest of the week, and Seattle is a 2.5-point road favorite, which puts the Seahawks near 21.5 implied points and the Broncos near 19. It should be clear and about 48 degrees in Denver with light wind, so weather is not a factor. The injury news to watch is on Denver's side: the Broncos played last week without both starting cornerbacks, Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, who were ruled out. No offensive starter on either team was on last week's report. The final injury report with game designations comes out Wednesday afternoon, so check it before you bet.
How I think this game plays out: low scoring and close. Both offenses rank in the bottom 10 in the league in efficiency per play, and Seattle's defense ranks 2nd. My model calls it a coin flip, Broncos 20.4 and Seahawks 19.5, a total just under 40. Seattle's run game has struggled all year, so expect the Seahawks to lean on the pass and on Smith-Njigba. Denver throws 57% of the time on early downs in close games, and Seattle allows just 3.8 yards per carry, so the Broncos will try to move it through the air with their backs catching passes underneath. That script shapes every pick below.
Two good defenses means I am not chasing soft matchups tonight. I am chasing volume: players whose role guarantees them the touches no matter who is across the line. All three props are plays my model grades a SMASH, and I ran each one through my 9-step research process. Something new this week: below the props I added one anytime touchdown scorer for each team. Bet them small and read the reasoning, not just the line.
Primetime Props
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba Longest Reception Over 27.5
SEA vs DEN·-117 @ DraftKingsSMASH
Model 61% vs market 51%
A SMASH from the model at 61%. Smith-Njigba has had a catch longer than 27.5 yards in 4 of 5 games this year (45, 82, 28, and 38 yards), and he did it in 11 of 17 games last season. He is the engine of this offense: 50 targets through five games, 10 a game, and a league-high 7 receiving touchdowns.
Denver is a good pass defense, and I am not going to pretend otherwise. The Broncos are a top-10 defense against WR1s, allowing 44.5 receiving yards a game to the position. That is why I like the longest reception market here instead of his yardage line. Longest catch only needs one play, and he has seen between 6 and 14 targets in every game. If Surtain and Moss sit again, this gets even better.
The head-to-head is thin: one game against Denver in 2024, and his longest that day was 10 yards. I am weighing two years of form over one early-career game. The risk is a Denver game plan that takes him away and lets the other receivers beat them. With his target share, I will take that bet.
A SMASH at 62%, and the price is close to even money at BetMGM. This is a volume bet, not an efficiency bet, which is exactly what you want against a good run defense. Seattle can limit how far he gets on each carry, but it cannot stop Denver from handing him the ball.
His role is growing. Dobbins went 8 and 10 carries in the first two weeks, then 17, 11, and 18. Last season he went over 13.5 carries in 9 of 10 games, and since 2023 he is 21 for 29. RJ Harvey is the change of pace back, with 2 to 7 carries a game, so the early-down work belongs to Dobbins.
Game script is the reason I like it. A 40.5 total and a 2.5-point spread says this game stays close, and close games keep a team running the ball late. The risk: Seattle has held lead backs to about 13 carries a game this year, and if Denver falls behind by two scores, the carries dry up. I want this one at 13.5, not 14.5.
The model's biggest edge on the card at 65%, and the one I am most careful with. Since 2023, Kupp has gone over 20.5 receiving yards in 36 of 45 games. When he sees 5 or more targets, he is 25 for 27. That is the min/max step at work: the line is set like he is a part-time player, and the model sees an efficient receiver who only needs a few looks.
Here is the honest part. This year he is 2 for 5 (35, 20, 46, 13, and 15 yards), and he has topped 5 targets only once, the 46-yard game. Denver is also tough on depth receivers, allowing just 37.8 yards a game to WR3s and below, the 4th fewest in the league.
So why play it? Efficiency. Kupp has 129 yards on 15 targets this year, 8.6 yards every time he is thrown to, so 3 targets at his rate clears this line. And that 4th-fewest number was built with Surtain and Moss on the field. If both sit again, it is a different secondary. This is the third leg for a reason. If you only bet one prop from this game, make it one of the first two.
New this week: one anytime touchdown pick for each side. In a 40.5-point game there may only be four or five touchdowns, so I want the scorer the market is underrating, not the obvious name at a short price.
1. RJ Harvey Anytime TD
DEN vs SEA·+290 @ BetMGMSMASH
Model 41% vs market 26%
The Broncos pick is the model's favorite touchdown bet in the game: 41% against a market price of about 26%. Harvey has not scored yet this year, which is exactly why the price is long. As a rookie last season he scored in 9 of 17 games, 12 touchdowns in all.
He is Denver's receiving back. 55 of his 60 routes this year have come out of the backfield, and he has drawn 22 targets in four games, including 10 against the 49ers. Seattle has given up 2 touchdowns to backfield receivers in five games, the 6th most in the league, and it has been stingy against lead backs on the ground. That is a funnel toward the back who catches passes, not the one who runs between the tackles.
This is an alignment pick, not a model pick. The model has Barner at 23%, just a hair above the +390 price, so treat it as a small bet. The case is where he lines up. Barner runs 71% of his routes inline (81 of 114), and Denver has allowed 4 touchdowns to inline receivers in five games, the 2nd most in the NFL. Out wide and in the slot, Denver has been close to the stingiest defense in the league.
Smith-Njigba is the obvious Seattle touchdown bet at +115, but 5 of the 6 scores we have charted for him came from out wide, which is the spot Denver shuts down. Barner scored in 6 of 17 games last season, has 1 this year, and drew 4 red-zone targets against Washington in Week 3. When Seattle gets inside the 10, the tight end is where Denver has been leaking.
The three props rolled into one ticket, priced at the best odds listed on each card. The touchdown picks are not included; bet those on their own. Two of these legs come from the same team, so they are not fully independent. Research, not betting advice.
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FAQ
What is a player prop?
A player prop is a bet on one player's stats instead of the game result, like how many times a running back carries the ball or how long a receiver's longest catch is. You bet the over or the under on the line the sportsbook sets.
What is an anytime touchdown bet?
An anytime touchdown bet wins if the player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime. It pays the listed odds whether he scores once or three times.
What does alignment mean in a touchdown pick?
Alignment is where a receiver lines up before the snap: out wide, in the slot, inline next to the tackle, or in the backfield. Defenses leak touchdowns to some spots more than others, so matching a player's main spot to the defense's weak spot is one more way to find value.
Will you post props for every primetime game?
That is the plan. Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games each get their own post with my favorite props for that matchup.
Founder of Propaholics, builder of the prop model. Picks on Propaholics are graded honestly and tracked every week, so you can judge the model for yourself. See the full model track record.
