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Geno Smith First Touchdown Odds

Q: Can I filter Geno Smith's game log?

Yes. The game log on this page filters by home and away, win or loss, primetime, day of the week, and volume ranges like carries or targets, and the line stepper reprices the chart at alternate lines. Every filter updates the hit rates instantly.

Live first touchdown line and odds for Jets @ Bears, with hit rates, the game log vs the line, and the matchup behind the number.

Geno Smith first touchdown odds for Jets @ Bears: current prices with a best price of +4000 across 6 books. Below is the full research view: per-book prices, hit rates by window, the game log charted against the line, and the defensive matchup. Our model prices this prop independently of the books; the model number and edge unlock with an account.

Geno Smith

QB1

NYJ · QB · Jets @ Bears · vs CHI

First TD

Locked

Model

Market

2.0%

Edge

Hit rate: L5 0% · L10 0% · Yr 0%

dra +4500wil +4500fan +4000bet +3300bet +4000fan +4000bov +4000

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Game log vs line

Avg 0.0 TD

0.5 TD

6 att

1 rz att

5 att

0 rz att

2 att

0 rz att

@TEN

9/13/26

9/20/26

@DET

9/27/26

Why First TD (percentile vs position)

Opportunity-

Quality-

Matchup72

Environment16

Games18

Carries/g2.73

Yds/carry2.66

RZ carries/g0.47

Targets/g0

Yds/target0

RZ targets/g0

Pass att/g30

Yds/att6.72

RZ pass att/g4

TD/g0

Rush yds/g to QB22.4 #31

Rush att/g to QB3.6 #9

RZ att/g to QB0.8 #20

Pass yds/g236.2 #21

Rush TD18 #15

Pass TD35 #25

Pass att/g33.2 #11

vs QB1(rushing, this player's role)

Rush att/g to QB12.2 #4

Rush yds/g to QB111.7 #9

RZ att/g to QB10.5 #8

Red-zone opportunities (inside 20)0.9%

Goal-line opportunities (inside 5)0.0%

Opening script (first 2 drives) vs 1.5% overall1.6%

Team red-zone pecking order

Breece Hall RB126.6% (1.9/g)

Justin Fields QB211.3% (0.8/g)

Isaiah Davis RB38.9% (0.6/g)

Braelon Allen RB27.3% (0.5/g)

Mason Taylor TE27.3% (0.5/g)

Adonai Mitchell WR26.5% (0.5/g)

A.Lazard4.8% (0.4/g)

Garrett Wilson WR14.0% (0.3/g)

70%

Q1 kept clean

Median first TD

22'

Avg game minute

Who scores it (position share)

50%WR

RB33%WR50%TE6%QB11%

Model breakdown is a paid feature

RB 30%WR 25%None 20%TE 15%QB 10%

Wk	Opp	First TD	Pos	Qtr	1st
26 W3	DET	Kenyon Sadiq	TE1	2	●
26 W2	GB	Braelon Allen	RB2	2
26 W1	TEN	Kenyon Sadiq	TE1	1	●
25 W18	BUF	Andrew Beck	RB6	4
25 W17	NE	Breece Hall	RB1	4
25 W16	NO	No TD
25 W15	JAX	Adonai Mitchell	WR2	1
25 W14	MIA	No TD
25 W13	ATL	Breece Hall	RB1	2	●
25 W12	BAL	John Metchie III	WR5	2	●
25 W11	NE	Justin Fields	QB2	1	●
25 W10	CLE	Kene Nwangwu	RB4	1
25 W8	CIN	Tyler Johnson	WR8	2
25 W7	CAR	No TD
25 W6	DEN	No TD
25 W5	DAL	Andrew Beck	RB6	4
25 W4	MIA	Justin Fields	QB2	3
25 W3	TB	Garrett Wilson	WR1	4
25 W2	BUF	Jeremy Ruckert	TE3	4
25 W1	PIT	Garrett Wilson	WR1	1

● = also the game's first TD (what the first-TD market settles on)

Direction	CHI allows					Smith
	Yds/g	YPC	TD/g	TD	Rank	Att	Yds	YPC	TD
Left	53.8	5.29	0.41	7	#28	11	46	4.18	0
Middle	16.4	3.77	0.12	2	#2	14	23	1.64	0
Right	64.6	5.44	0.35	6	#30	9	46	5.11	0

2025 regular season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game except TD (season total); the player's are season totals with YPC.

Wk	Vs	First TD of the game	Qtr
26 W3	PHI	✗	1
26 W2	MIN	No TD
26 W1	CAR	Chuba Hubbard RB1	1
25 W18	DET	Jahmyr Gibbs RB1	2
25 W17	SF	Jake Tonges TE4	1
25 W16	GB	Romeo Doubs WR1	3
25 W15	CLE	✗	1
25 W14	GB	Christian Watson WR1	2
25 W13	PHI	✗	1
25 W12	PIT	✗	1
25 W11	MIN	✗	2
25 W10	NYG	✗	1
25 W9	CIN	Charlie Jones WR5	1
25 W8	BAL	Derrick Henry RB1	2
25 W7	NO	✗	2
25 W6	WAS	✗	2
25 W4	LV	Ashton Jeanty RB1	1
25 W3	DAL	✗	1
25 W2	DET	Jahmyr Gibbs RB1	1
25 W1	MIN	✗	1

✗ = CHI's own offense got the first TD (nobody beat them to it); a name = who did

More Geno Smith research

Full Geno Smith dashboard Geno Smith Passing Touchdowns Odds Geno Smith Longest Completion Odds Geno Smith Pass Completions Odds Geno Smith Pass Attempts Odds Geno Smith 2+ Touchdowns Odds Geno Smith Anytime Touchdown Odds Geno Smith Pass and Rush Yards Odds Geno Smith Passing Yards Odds Geno Smith Rushing Yards Odds Geno Smith Longest Rush Odds Geno Smith Last Touchdown Odds

Geno Smith First Touchdown Odds FAQ

What is Geno Smith's first touchdown line today?

The current line is shown on the card above with a best available price of +4000 across 6 sportsbooks for Jets @ Bears. Lines move throughout the day, so the card above always shows the live number.

How often does Geno Smith go over the line in first touchdown?

Against the current first touchdown line, Geno Smith has hit 0% over his last 5 games, 0% over his last 10, 0% across the season. The game log below charts every game against the line, and the range cards break it down by window.