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Live first touchdown line and odds for Patriots @ Bills, with hit rates, the game log vs the line, and the matchup behind the number.
Greg Dortch first touchdown odds for Patriots @ Bills: current prices with a best price of +10000 across 6 books. Below is the full research view: per-book prices, hit rates by window, the game log charted against the line, and the defensive matchup. Our model prices this prop independently of the books; the model number and edge unlock with an account.
| Wk | Opp | First TD | Pos | Qtr | 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 W3 | LAC | Josh Allen | QB1 | 2 | |
| 26 W2 | DET | Josh Allen | QB1 | 1 | ● |
| 26 W1 | HOU | Josh Allen | QB1 | 2 | |
| 25 W18 | NYJ | Dawson Knox | TE2 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W17 | PHI | Josh Allen | QB1 | 4 | |
| 25 W16 | CLE | James Cook | RB1 | 1 | |
| 25 W15 | NE | James Cook | RB1 | 2 | |
| 25 W14 | CIN | Khalil Shakir | WR2 | 2 | |
| 25 W13 | PIT | Keon Coleman | WR3 | 3 | |
| 25 W12 | HOU | James Cook | RB1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W11 | TB | Josh Allen | QB1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W10 | MIA | Keon Coleman | WR3 | 4 | |
| 25 W9 | KC | Dalton Kincaid | TE1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W8 | CAR | James Cook | RB1 | 2 | ● |
| 25 W6 | ATL | Dawson Knox | TE2 | 1 | |
| 25 W5 | NE | C.Samuel | 3 | ● | |
| 25 W4 | NO | Khalil Shakir | WR2 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W3 | MIA | Dalton Kincaid | TE1 | 1 | |
| 25 W2 | NYJ | James Cook | RB1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W1 | BAL | Dalton Kincaid | TE1 | 1 | ● |
| Direction | NE allows | Dortch | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPT | TD/g | TD | Rank | Tgt | Yds | YPT | TD | |
| Left | 82.5 | 6.68 | 0.65 | 11 | #16 | 12 | 49 | 4.08 | 1 |
| Middle | 47.1 | 6.97 | 0.12 | 2 | #11 | 9 | 84 | 9.33 | 1 |
| Right | 75.9 | 6.46 | 0.71 | 12 | #9 | 12 | 73 | 6.08 | 1 |
2025 regular season, from play-by-play pass location (~92% of attempts are charted). Sides are the offense's perspective. Opponent numbers are per game except TD (season total); the player's are season totals with YPT.
| Wk | Vs | First TD of the game | Qtr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 W3 | JAX | Josh Cameron WR4 | 2 |
| 26 W2 | PIT | ✗ | 1 |
| 26 W1 | SEA | ✗ | 2 |
| 25 W18 | MIA | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W17 | NYJ | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W16 | BAL | Derrick Henry RB1 | 1 |
| 25 W15 | BUF | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W13 | NYG | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W12 | CIN | ✗ | 2 |
| 25 W11 | NYJ | Justin Fields QB2 | 1 |
| 25 W10 | TB | Emeka Egbuka WR1 | 1 |
| 25 W9 | ATL | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W8 | CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. TE1 | 1 |
| 25 W7 | TEN | Chimere Dike WR5 | 1 |
| 25 W6 | NO | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W5 | BUF | C.Samuel | 3 |
| 25 W4 | CAR | Tommy Tremble TE1 | 1 |
| 25 W3 | PIT | Kenny Gainwell RB2 | 1 |
| 25 W2 | MIA | ✗ | 1 |
| 25 W1 | LV | Tre Tucker WR1 | 1 |
The current line is shown on the card above with a best available price of +10000 across 6 sportsbooks for Patriots @ Bills. Lines move throughout the day, so the card above always shows the live number.
Against the current first touchdown line, Greg Dortch has hit 0% over his last 5 games, 0% over his last 10, 0% across the season. The game log below charts every game against the line, and the range cards break it down by window.
Yes. The game log on this page filters by home and away, win or loss, primetime, day of the week, and volume ranges like carries or targets, and the line stepper reprices the chart at alternate lines. Every filter updates the hit rates instantly.
Yes. Our model prices every posted prop independently of the sportsbooks and shows its probability next to the market's implied probability, with the gap between them. The model number on this prop unlocks with an account, and the board's top showcase play is free every slate.