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Live first touchdown line and odds for Commanders @ Cowboys, with hit rates, the game log vs the line, and the matchup behind the number.
Ryan Flournoy first touchdown odds for Commanders @ Cowboys: current prices with a best price of +2000 across 7 books. Below is the full research view: per-book prices, hit rates by window, the game log charted against the line, and the defensive matchup. Our model prices this prop independently of the books; the model number and edge unlock with an account.
| Wk | Opp | First TD | Pos | Qtr | 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 W1 | NYG | CeeDee Lamb | WR1 | 2 | |
| 25 W18 | NYG | Jaydon Blue | RB3 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W17 | WAS | Jake Ferguson | TE1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W16 | LAC | Ryan Flournoy | WR3 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W15 | MIN | Javonte Williams | RB1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W14 | DET | Javonte Williams | RB1 | 3 | |
| 25 W13 | KC | CeeDee Lamb | WR1 | 1 | |
| 25 W12 | PHI | George Pickens | WR2 | 2 | |
| 25 W11 | LV | CeeDee Lamb | WR1 | 2 | ● |
| 25 W9 | ARI | Ryan Flournoy | WR3 | 4 | |
| 25 W8 | DEN | Javonte Williams | RB1 | 2 | |
| 25 W7 | WAS | Javonte Williams | RB1 | 1 | ● |
| 25 W6 | CAR | Hunter Luepke | RB6 | 2 | ● |
| 25 W5 | NYJ | Jake Ferguson | TE1 | 2 | ● |
| 25 W4 | GB | Dak Prescott | QB1 | 2 | |
| 25 W3 | CHI | George Pickens | WR2 | 2 | |
| 25 W2 | NYG | KaVontae Turpin | WR4 | 2 | |
| 25 W1 | PHI | Javonte Williams | RB1 | 1 | ● |
| Wk | Vs | First TD of the game | Qtr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 W1 | PHI | Dallas Goedert TE1 | 2 |
| 25 W18 | PHI | Grant Calcaterra TE4 | 2 |
| 25 W17 | DAL | Jake Ferguson TE1 | 1 |
| 25 W16 | PHI | DeVonta Smith WR1 | 1 |
| 25 W15 | NYG | ✗Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB1 | 2 |
| 25 W14 | MIN | Josh Oliver TE2 | 1 |
| 25 W13 | DEN | ✗Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB2 | 2 |
| 25 W11 | MIA | ✗Deebo Samuel Sr. WR2 | 3 |
| 25 W10 | DET | Jahmyr Gibbs RB1 | 1 |
| 25 W9 | SEA | Tory Horton WR4 | 1 |
| 25 W8 | KC | K.Hunt | 2 |
| 25 W7 | DAL | Javonte Williams RB1 | 1 |
| 25 W6 | CHI | Caleb Williams QB1 | 2 |
| 25 W5 | LAC | Ladd McConkey WR1 | 1 |
| 25 W4 | ATL | Drake London WR1 | 1 |
| 25 W3 | LV | ✗Marcus Mariota QB2 | 1 |
| 25 W2 | GB | Romeo Doubs WR1 | 1 |
| 25 W1 | NYG | ✗Z.Ertz | 1 |
| Direction | WAS allows | Flournoy | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/g | YPT | TD/g | Rank | Tgt | Yds | YPT | TD | |
| Left | 91.5 | 7.45 | 0.50 | #23 | 28 | 176 | 6.29 | 3 |
| Middle | 57.3 | 10.63 | 0.33 | #16 | 12 | 81 | 6.75 | 0 |
| Right | 105.3 | 7.71 | 1.17 | #31 | 20 | 240 | 12.00 | 1 |
Prior season, from play-by-play pass location (~92% of attempts are charted). Sides are the offense's perspective. Opponent numbers are per game; the player's are season totals with YPT.
The current line is shown on the card above with a best available price of +2000 across 7 sportsbooks for Commanders @ Cowboys. Lines move throughout the day, so the card above always shows the live number.
Against the current first touchdown line, Ryan Flournoy has hit 20% over his last 5 games, 10% over his last 10, 8% across the season. The game log below charts every game against the line, and the range cards break it down by window.
Yes. The game log on this page filters by home and away, win or loss, primetime, day of the week, and volume ranges like carries or targets, and the line stepper reprices the chart at alternate lines. Every filter updates the hit rates instantly.
Yes. Our model prices every posted prop independently of the sportsbooks and shows its probability next to the market's implied probability, with the gap between them. The model number on this prop unlocks with an account, and the board's top showcase play is free every slate.