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Seth McGowan First Touchdown Odds

Live first touchdown line and odds for Colts @ Commanders, with hit rates, the game log vs the line, and the matchup behind the number.

Seth McGowan first touchdown odds for Colts @ Commanders: current prices with a best price of +4000 across 7 books. Below is the full research view: per-book prices, hit rates by window, the game log charted against the line, and the defensive matchup. Our model prices this prop independently of the books; the model number and edge unlock with an account.

Seth McGowan

RB2

IND · RB · Colts @ Commanders · vs WAS

First TD

Locked

Model

Market

2.1%

Edge

Hit rate: L5 - · L10 - · Yr -

dra +5000wil +5000fan +4500bet +4000bov +5000bet +5000fan +3500

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Game log vs line

Avg 0.0 TD

0.5 TD

0 att

0 rz att

1 tgt

0 rz tgt

2 att

0 rz att

0 tgt

0 rz tgt

4 att

1 rz att

0 tgt

0 rz tgt

BAL

9/13/26

@KC

9/20/26

HOU

9/27/26

Why First TD (percentile vs position)

Opportunity20

Quality20

Matchup94

Environment91

Games3

Carries/g2

Yds/carry2.33

RZ carries/g0.33

Targets/g0.33

Yds/target0

RZ targets/g0

Pass att/g0

Yds/att0

RZ pass att/g0

TD/g0

Rush yds/g to RB104.7 #27

Rush att/g to RB23.3 #27

RZ att/g to RB4.8 #28

Pass yds/g262.3 #31

Rush TD18 #15

Pass TD44 #32

vs RB2+(rushing, this player's role)

Rush att/g to RB2+13 #32

Rush yds/g to RB2+52.1 #29

RZ att/g to RB2+2.8 #31

vs RB (in the passing game)

Targets/g to RB4.8 #9

Rec/g to RB3.5 #6

Rec yds/g to RB33.1 #23

vs RB2(this player's role)

Targets/g to RB20.3 #1

Rec/g to RB20.3 #2

Rec yds/g to RB24.3 #6

Red-zone opportunities (inside 20)0.5%

Goal-line opportunities (inside 5)0.0%

Opening script (first 2 drives) vs 0.7% overall0.0%

Team red-zone pecking order

Jonathan Taylor RB140.9% (4.5/g)

Tyler Warren TE114.5% (1.6/g)

Michael Pittman WR29.7% (1.1/g)

Daniel Jones QB18.6% (0.9/g)

Josh Downs WR18.1% (0.9/g)

Alec Pierce WR84.8% (0.5/g)

Mo Alie-Cox TE23.2% (0.4/g)

DJ Giddens RB33.2% (0.4/g)

50%

Q1 kept clean

Median first TD

15'

Avg game minute

Who scores it (position share)

47%WR

RB21%WR47%TE21%QB5%Oth5%

Model breakdown is a paid feature

WR 35%RB 35%TE 20%QB 10%

Wk	Opp	First TD	Pos	Qtr	1st
26 W3	HOU	Keenan Allen	WR2	2	●
26 W2	KC	Tyler Warren	TE1	1	●
26 W1	BAL	Jonathan Taylor	RB1	1	●
25 W18	HOU	Alec Pierce	WR8	1	●
25 W17	JAX	Jonathan Taylor	RB1	2	●
25 W16	SF	Alec Pierce	WR8	1	●
25 W15	SEA	Josh Downs	WR1	2	●
25 W14	JAX	Jonathan Taylor	RB1	1
25 W13	HOU	Alec Pierce	WR8	2	●
25 W12	KC	Michael Pittman	WR2	1	●
25 W10	ATL	Jonathan Taylor	RB1	1	●
25 W9	PIT	Daniel Jones	QB1	1	●
25 W8	TEN	Jonathan Taylor	RB1	1	●
25 W7	LAC	Jonathan Taylor	RB1	1	●
25 W6	ARI	Tyler Warren	TE1	1	●
25 W5	LV	Tyler Warren	TE1	2	●
25 W4	LA	Tyler Warren	TE1	2	●
25 W3	TEN	Jonathan Taylor	RB1	1	●
25 W2	DEN	Daniel Jones	QB1	2
25 W1	MIA	Michael Pittman	WR2	2	●

● = also the game's first TD (what the first-TD market settles on)

Direction	WAS allows					McGowan
	Yds/g	YPC	TD/g	TD	Rank	Att	Yds	YPC	TD
Left	52.4	5.20	0.53	9	#27	0	0	-	0
Middle	33.2	4.31	0.06	1	#25	0	0	-	0
Right	57.3	5.32	0.47	8	#29	0	0	-	0

2025 regular season, from play-by-play run direction (~96% of carries are charted). Opponent numbers are per game except TD (season total); the player's are season totals with YPC.

Direction	WAS allows					McGowan
	Yds/g	YPT	TD/g	TD	Rank	Tgt	Yds	YPT	TD
Left	95.1	7.66	0.47	8	#27	0	0	-	0
Middle	57.4	10.38	0.29	5	#16	0	0	-	0
Right	104.6	7.60	1.18	20	#30	0	0	-	0

2025 regular season, from play-by-play pass location (~92% of attempts are charted). Sides are the offense's perspective. Opponent numbers are per game except TD (season total); the player's are season totals with YPT.

Wk	Vs	First TD of the game	Qtr
26 W3	SEA	✗	1
26 W2	DAL	CeeDee Lamb WR1	1
26 W1	PHI	Dallas Goedert TE1	2
25 W18	PHI	Grant Calcaterra TE6	2
25 W17	DAL	Jake Ferguson TE1	1
25 W16	PHI	DeVonta Smith WR1	1
25 W15	NYG	✗	2
25 W14	MIN	Josh Oliver TE4	1
25 W13	DEN	✗	2
25 W11	MIA	✗	3
25 W10	DET	Jahmyr Gibbs RB1	1
25 W9	SEA	Tory Horton WR4	1
25 W8	KC	K.Hunt	2
25 W7	DAL	Javonte Williams RB1	1
25 W6	CHI	Caleb Williams QB1	2
25 W5	LAC	Ladd McConkey WR1	1
25 W4	ATL	Drake London WR1	1
25 W3	LV	✗	1
25 W2	GB	Romeo Doubs WR1	1
25 W1	NYG	✗	1

✗ = WAS's own offense got the first TD (nobody beat them to it); a name = who did

More Seth McGowan research

Full Seth McGowan dashboard Seth McGowan Anytime Touchdown Odds Seth McGowan Rushing Yards Odds Seth McGowan Last Touchdown Odds Seth McGowan 2+ Touchdowns Odds

Seth McGowan First Touchdown Odds FAQ

What is Seth McGowan's first touchdown line today?

The current line is shown on the card above with a best available price of +4000 across 7 sportsbooks for Colts @ Commanders. Lines move throughout the day, so the card above always shows the live number.

How often does Seth McGowan go over the line in first touchdown?

The game log on this page charts every game against the current line, with hit rates by window (last 5, last 10, season, and head to head).

Can I filter Seth McGowan's game log?

Yes. The game log on this page filters by home and away, win or loss, primetime, day of the week, and volume ranges like carries or targets, and the line stepper reprices the chart at alternate lines. Every filter updates the hit rates instantly.