My 5 Favorite NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 5 (One Lean, Four Model Fades)

The one pick where the model and I agree. It grades McCaffrey a LEAN at 61% to score against Seattle, a touch above the 58% the market is charging. He has scored in 3 of 4 games this year and in 8 of his last 10.

I will be upfront about the matchup, because it is not a soft one. Seattle allowed just 1 touchdown to an opposing lead back in 17 games last season, and only 1 of the 4 lead backs they have faced this year has scored. The head-to-head is ugly too: McCaffrey is 1 for 5 against the Seahawks since 2023, including a game last September where he saw 8 red-zone carries and still got shut out.

So why is he my lead? Volume. McCaffrey owns about 62% of San Francisco's work inside the 5 and is averaging 3.8 red-zone opportunities a game. When he gets 13 or more carries with at least one red-zone look, he has scored in 25 of 32 games since 2023, including all 10 of the last 10. Seattle is also allowing touchdowns on 70% of red-zone trips this year, which ranks 22nd. The thing to watch is the workload: his carries have been lighter early (10, 10, 15, and 15), so I need him back in that 13-plus range. I use head-to-head as a tiebreaker, not a deciding factor, and the role wins this one.

The model tags this a FADE, 26% against a 38% market, and I am taking it anyway. Hampton has scored in 3 of 4 games this year and in 7 of his last 10, which clears the 70% bar I use for hit rates. He also scored in his only game against Denver, last September, on 19 carries and 7 targets.

Denver has been giving it up to lead backs. The Broncos have allowed 4 touchdowns to RB1s in 4 games, and three of the four lead backs they have faced found the end zone: Kenneth Walker III twice, Bhayshul Tuten, and Christian McCaffrey. Only Kyren Williams missed. Last year this defense was stingy with red-zone chances for backs, under 3 a game. This year backs are getting 5 a game against them.

Hampton owns the work near the goal line: 37% of the Chargers' red-zone opportunities, more than double anyone else on the team, and 3.3 red-zone looks a game. With Quentin Johnston out and Ladd McConkey questionable, there are even fewer mouths to feed. The risk is game script. The Chargers are 3.5-point home underdogs with a 42 total, so they are only implied for about 19 points. I will bet the role over the total.

Another FADE on the model's card, 37% to the market's 48%, that I am playing. McBride has scored in 2 of 4 games this year and in 9 of 17 last season. His only game against Detroit was back in 2024, when he saw 6 targets and none in the red zone, so the head-to-head does not tell us much.

The matchup does. Detroit has allowed 6 touchdowns to tight ends in 4 games, the most in the league, and the most targets and catches to the position too. Three of the four TE1s the Lions have faced scored: Juwan Johnson, Dalton Kincaid, and Kenyon Sadiq.

The volume is elite. McBride is seeing 11.5 targets a game with 2.3 of them in the red zone, and when he gets 12 or more targets with a red-zone look he has scored in 8 of 12 games since 2023. The game script fits: Arizona is a 5.5-point underdog in a game with a 54.5 total, tied for the highest of the week, so the Cardinals should be throwing all afternoon. Alignment lines up too. McBride runs 68% of his routes from the slot and 22% inline, and Detroit has already allowed 7 touchdowns from those two spots.

The model lands on a FADE here, 30% against a 43% market. I see a WR1 who has scored in both games he has played this year, 3 touchdowns total, and who knows this opponent. Collins has scored in 3 of his 5 games against Tennessee since 2023, including 2 of the last 3. A division rival he sees twice a year is the one kind of head-to-head I give real weight.

Tennessee gave up 19 touchdowns to wide receivers last season, 5th most in the league. This year the WR1s who drew real volume against the Titans cashed: DeVonta Smith went for 10 catches, 117 yards, and a touchdown on 13 targets, and Zay Flowers went for 8 catches, 118 yards, and a score on 10 targets. The Titans play zone on 74% of their snaps, and Collins has done more of his scoring against zone (4 touchdowns) than against man (2).

The trigger is volume. When Collins sees 9 or more targets with at least one in the red zone, he has scored in 10 of 15 games since 2023, and he is averaging 9 targets a game this year. Two things work against this pick, and I want you to see both. The 38 total is the lowest on the board, and Tennessee has not allowed a touchdown to a receiver lined up out wide yet this year, which is where Collins runs 88% of his routes. The Titans allowed 12 from that spot last season, so I am betting that changes Sunday.

The smallest gap between the model and me on the fade side: 34% to the market's 41%. I will be honest about the hit rate, because it is not pretty. Judkins has scored in 1 of 4 games this year and in 2 of his last 10. He also got 22 carries against the Jets last November and did not score, mostly because only one of them came in the red zone.

This pick is all matchup. The Jets allowed 28 touchdowns to running backs last season, the most in the NFL, and they are at it again: 6 in 4 games this year, with backs getting 8 red-zone opportunities a game against them, 2nd most in the league. Look at the last two weeks. Jahmyr Gibbs scored 3 times, then Kyle Monangai ran 30 times for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Judkins is the back who gets those chances in Cleveland. He owns 43% of the Browns' red-zone opportunities and half of their work inside the 5, and his workload is climbing: 12, 12, 18, and 17 carries, with 5 red-zone looks and a touchdown last week against Pittsburgh. The forecast helps too. There is about a 70% chance of rain at MetLife Stadium (weather page), and wet games lean on the run. The risk is the total. At 39.5, the Browns are only implied for about 18.5 points, so there may be just one or two trips to cash. I think Judkins gets the ball when they come.