NFL 2+ Touchdown Picks for Week 6: 4 Backs Built to Score Twice

This sets up as a grind the Chiefs control. Kansas City is an 8-point home favorite in a 41.5 total, implied for 24.8 points, and our projection has it 23.7 to 18.1. A team that expects to lead runs the ball late, and Walker is the back who gets those carries. The forecast at Arrowhead is about 52 degrees with almost no wind and no rain (weather page). Rashee Rice is questionable, but near the goal line this offense is Walker's: he has 53.2% of the Chiefs' red-zone chances this season and 73.3% of their chances inside the 5. Nobody else on the team has more than 11%.

Here is the honest part. The Chargers are one of the best red-zone defenses in the league. Teams score a touchdown on only 56% of their trips inside the 20 (6th best) and 77.8% inside the 5 (12th), and last year they were 4th and 2nd. They allowed just 12 touchdowns to running backs all of last season. But they have already given up 5 in 5 games this year, and 3 of the 5 RB1s they have faced scored: James Cook ran for 154 yards and a touchdown, J.K. Dobbins scored on 5 red-zone looks, and Emanuel Wilson ran 21 times for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 4. When somebody does score twice on the Chargers, it is usually a back: of the 8 games since 2025 where a player scored 2 or more against them, 5 were running backs. The weak spot is the left side. Six of the rushing touchdowns the Chargers have allowed this year came on runs to the left, and Walker is averaging 8 yards a carry going left.

Walker's repeat profile is the reason he is on this card. Since 2023, when he scores, he scores again 42% of the time (8 of 19 games), double the 21% running back average. With Kansas City he has 2 touchdowns in 3 of 4 games, on carries of 23, 24, 18, and 22 and red-zone looks of 4, 7, 9, and 5. The one miss came against Indianapolis, when he had 24 carries and 7 red-zone looks and did not score, so the volume has been there every week. The min/max read: he averages 22 carries, and the most an RB1 has gotten against the Chargers this year is 24 (Cook). In his games with 22 to 24 carries, he scored twice in 2 of 3. That is only 3 games, so here is the bigger sample: since 2025, in his 8 games with 4 or more red-zone looks, he scored in 4, and every one of those 4 was a 2-touchdown game.

The model has this even with the market, 24.7% against 24.9%. The risks are real: a 41.5 total and a defense that holds up in the red zone, and at this team total, scorers double about 17% of the time. But he gets about 6 red-zone looks a game, he owns the goal line, and when he scores, he tends to score twice. Small bet, and the strongest profile on the card.

This is the best scoring environment on the slate. The Rams are 12.5-point favorites in a 51.5 total and implied for 32 points, the most of any team this week, and our projection has it 30 to 20. It is indoors at SoFi, so weather is out. Backup tight ends Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen are both questionable. The team total matters more for this bet than for any other: when a player on a team implied for 28 or more scores, he goes on to score again about 23% of the time, the highest of any range we track. Kyren has 40.4% of the Rams' red-zone chances this season, more than the next two players combined.

Arizona hands running backs the ball near the goal line more than any defense in football: 7.2 red-zone carries a game, the most in the NFL, after ranking 31st last year. Last season the Cardinals gave up 22 touchdowns to running backs (2nd most), 15 of them to RB1s (also 2nd). This year they turn 83.3% of red-zone trips into touchdowns, 31st. The RB1 lines tell the story: Jahmyr Gibbs went for 151 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 red-zone looks in Week 5, Christian McCaffrey scored, Omarion Hampton scored, and Emanuel Wilson got 8 red-zone looks in Week 2. Since 2025, someone has scored twice on Arizona in 10 of 22 games, and running backs are tied with receivers for the most of them. The middle is where they break: 5 of the rushing touchdowns Arizona has allowed this year came up the middle, where Kyren is averaging 5.35 yards a carry.

The head-to-head is as good as it gets. Kyren has scored in 5 of 6 games against Arizona since 2023, including 2 touchdowns in 2023 on 16 carries and 7 red-zone looks, and the Cardinals have given him at least 2 red-zone looks every time (6, 7, 8, 3, 2, and 5). His repeat profile is above average too: since 2023, he has scored twice in 12 of his 35 scoring games (34%). This season it has happened once (2 touchdowns at Philadelphia in Week 4), but his workload is climbing: 11, 12, 15, 16, and 16 carries, with 6 red-zone looks in each of the last two games. The min/max read: he averages 14 carries, and the most an RB1 has gotten against Arizona this year is 25 (Gibbs). In his last 10 games with 14 to 25 carries, he scored twice in 4 (40%). The market says 28.4%, so this one beats the price.

The model fades it, 21.7% against 28.4%. I think it is missing the setup: the most red-zone carries allowed in the league, the highest team total on the board, and a back who has scored against this team in 5 of 6 meetings. The risk is a blowout: if the Rams are up three scores, Blake Corum takes the fourth quarter. I like this one.

The books expect points: a 52 total, with the Falcons 1-point home underdogs and implied for 25.5. Our projection has the Falcons winning a closer, lower game, 23.6 to 22.8. The roof will be closed in Atlanta. The injury that matters is on the other side: Caleb Williams is doubtful, and if he sits, Case Keenum starts. A Keenum-led Bears offense means more Atlanta possessions, and in Atlanta, possessions near the goal line go to Bijan. He has 59.5% of the Falcons' red-zone chances this season and 53.8% of their chances inside the 5.

Chicago is not a soft run defense. The Bears allow only 2.2 red-zone carries a game to backs, 4th fewest, and the middle of their line is the stingiest in the league (2.6 yards a carry allowed). But when backs do get close, they finish: the Bears allow a touchdown on 85.7% of trips inside the 5 (21st). And two RB1s have already scored twice on them this season: Chuba Hubbard went for 49 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 carries in Week 1, and MarShawn Lloyd scored twice on 10 carries and just 2 red-zone looks in Week 5. Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Braelon Allen did not score at all, so it has been feast or famine. The way in is the edges: Bijan does his damage running left (52 carries, 6.5 yards a carry, all 4 of his rushing touchdowns), and Chicago ranked 28th on runs to the left last year.

Bijan has 2 touchdowns in 2 of 5 games this season (Green Bay and New Orleans), and his repeat profile is above average: since 2023, he has scored twice in 10 of his 29 scoring games (34%). His red-zone work comes in waves: 0, 0, 11, 7, and 4 looks. That is the whole bet, because volume is what makes him double. Since 2023, when he gets 6 or more red-zone looks, he has scored twice in 5 of 8 games. The min/max read: he averages 20 carries, and the most an RB1 has gotten against Chicago this year is 23 (Jones). In his games with 20 to 23 carries, he scored twice in 4 of 12 (33%). The market says 35.1%, so that is about even.

The model fades it, 26% against 35.1%, mostly because of that Bears front. The risk is a Chicago defense that keeps backs out of the red zone. The case is a back who gets every big carry, a defense that has already let two RB1s score twice, and a possible Keenum start that gives Atlanta more chances. This is the shortest price on the card. Small bet.

The books have this as a coin flip: a 46 total, with the Giants implied for 22.8 and the Saints for 23.2. Our projection leans Giants, 22.9 to 20.4. Expect about 43 degrees and a 9 mph wind at MetLife, with no rain. Tight end Theo Johnson is questionable. Skattebo leads the Giants with 26.2% of their red-zone chances and 30% of their chances inside the 5, but he shares the work with Najee Harris (19%), which is part of why this is the long shot of the card.

This pick is all matchup. The Saints have allowed 10 touchdowns to running backs in 5 games, the most in the NFL, after giving up 14 all of last season. RB1s have scored against them in 4 of 5 games: Jahmyr Gibbs (29 carries, 156 yards, 2 touchdowns), Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson (19 carries, 145 yards, 2 touchdowns), and Aaron Jones (25 carries, 113 yards, a touchdown). In Week 4, Atlanta's backs scored 5 touchdowns against them, with Brian Robinson getting 3. That is 3 different backs with multi-touchdown games against New Orleans already, and backs get 7 red-zone carries a game against them, 2nd most in the league (it was 3.6 last year). Once teams get inside the 5, they score 90.9% of the time (27th).

Now the hard part. Skattebo has 1 touchdown in 5 games this season and no multi-touchdown games, even though his carries have been steady: 18, 12, 20, 18, and 13. His red-zone looks have been light (4, 1, 4, 2, and 0), and that is the problem. Last year, in 8 games, he scored in 5, including 3 touchdowns against Philadelphia. Against New Orleans last season he had 15 carries and 3 red-zone looks and did not score. His repeat profile is right at average: since 2023, he has scored twice in 1 of his 6 scoring games (17%). The min/max read: he averages 16 carries, and the most an RB1 has gotten against the Saints this year is 29 (Gibbs). In his games with 16 to 29 carries, he scored twice in 1 of 6 (17%). The market says 17.3%, so it is even.

The model fades it, 11.1% against 17.3%. I will be straight with you: Skattebo's season does not support this on its own. This is a bet on the worst running back defense in the league at long odds, against a team that has already let three backs score multiple times. It is the smallest bet on this card.