New here? Get a 7-day free trial.Full access to every number and matchup. Then $15/mo or $110/yr, cancel anytime.Start free trial →

NFL - Week 7 - 2+ TD Picks

NFL 2+ Touchdown Picks for Week 7: The 5 Backs My Model Likes Most to Score Twice

By J.B. Wright·October 23, 2026

These are my 2+ touchdown picks for NFL Week 7. Last week's card went 1-3, and that one hit is the whole point of these bets: Kenneth Walker scored twice at +340, so one unit on each of the four picks still came out a little ahead. Kyren Williams, Bijan Robinson, and Cam Skattebo did not score at all.

This week I built the card a different way. Instead of starting from my pins, I took the five players my model gives the highest chance to score twice, then ran each one through the same 9-step process I use for all my props. All five are running backs who own the goal line. Here is the honest part: the model likes these players more than anyone else on the board, but it still calls three of them a few points short of their price and the other two about fair. The model's number and the market's number are on every card.

Two numbers show up on every pick that you will not see on an anytime TD post. The first is his repeat profile: when he scores, how often does he score again? The average running back who scores goes on to score a second time about 21% of the time, so a back well above that is built for this bet.

The second is the min/max read. I set a carries range for the back. The low end is what he usually gets this season, and the high end is the most carries a lead back has gotten against this defense this year. Then I only count his games inside that range since 2023 and see how often he scored twice. That shows you how he does when he gets the kind of work this matchup should give him.

2+ Touchdown Picks

1. Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ Touchdowns Over 1.5

DET vs GB·+163 @ BetRiversFADE

Model 38% vs market 40%

This is the best scoring environment on the Sunday slate. The total is 53.5, the highest of the week, and Detroit is a 3.5-point home favorite implied for 28.5 points. Our projection has it Lions 28.4, Packers 25. It is indoors at Ford Field, so weather is out. The team total matters for this bet: when a player on a team implied for 28 or more scores, he goes on to score again about 23% of the time, the highest of any range we track. And near the goal line, Detroit is Gibbs: he has 50% of the Lions' red-zone chances this season and 61.9% of their chances inside the 5.

Green Bay has given up 9 rushing touchdowns in 6 games, and once teams get close, they finish: opponents have scored a touchdown on 16 of 23 red-zone trips (69.6%) and 11 of 12 trips inside the 5. Four of the six lead backs the Packers have faced scored, and one of them is on this card too: Bijan Robinson ran 29 times for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns against them in Week 3, with 11 red-zone carries. Since 2025, a player has scored twice on Green Bay in 7 of 23 games, and 4 of the 7 were running backs, including Derrick Henry's 4-touchdown game last year.

Gibbs' repeat profile is the best on the card. Since 2023, when he scores, he scores again 44% of the time (16 of 36 games), more than double the running back average. This season he has scored in all 5 games and scored twice in 3 of them: 29 carries against New Orleans, 3 touchdowns against the Jets, and 25 carries against Arizona. The min/max read: he averages 21 carries, and the most a lead back has gotten against Green Bay this year is 29 (Bijan). In his games with 21 to 29 carries since 2023, he scored twice in 5 of 7, and 3 of 3 since 2025. When he gets 6 or more red-zone looks, he has scored twice in 7 of 12.

Now the risk. Gibbs has never scored twice against Green Bay. He has faced them 6 times since 2023 and scored in only 2 of them, once each time. The model has him at 38% against a market of 40%, so it calls the price 2 points short, the closest to fair of the three fades. The shortest odds on the card, the best repeat profile, and the best game environment. This is the anchor.

Jahmyr Gibbs on the board

2. Bijan Robinson 2+ Touchdowns Over 1.5

ATL vs SF·+225 @ BetRiversFADE

Model 33% vs market 37%

The books expect a close game with points: a 50 total, with the Falcons 2.5-point home underdogs implied for 23.8. Our projection has it 49ers 26.1, Falcons 23.8. Atlanta plays under a retractable roof. Backup running back Brian Robinson is questionable with a hamstring injury, and if he sits, every short-yardage carry goes to Bijan. He already has 44.9% of the Falcons' red-zone chances this season and 43.8% of their chances inside the 5. Last week is why the price is not shorter: Atlanta lost 31-23 to Chicago and ran the ball only 12 times, and Bijan got 9 of them.

San Francisco is the toughest defense on this card. The 49ers have allowed only 3 rushing touchdowns in 6 games, opponents have scored on just 10 of 19 red-zone trips (52.6%), and only 2 of the 6 lead backs they have faced scored. But when a player does score twice against them, it is usually a running back. Since 2025, there have been only 4 multi-touchdown games against San Francisco, and 3 of them were backs: Kyren Williams twice and D'Andre Swift.

Bijan has scored twice in 2 of 6 games this season, against Green Bay (29 carries, 11 red-zone carries) and New Orleans (19 carries, 7 red-zone looks). Since 2023, when he scores, he scores again 34% of the time (10 of 29 games), well above the average back. The min/max read is the weak spot: he averages 18.5 carries, and the most a lead back has gotten against San Francisco this year is 21 (Jeremiyah Love). In his games with 18 to 21 carries since 2023, he scored twice in only 2 of 11. The better read for him is volume near the goal line: with 6 or more red-zone looks, he has scored twice in 5 of 8.

The model fades it, 32.9% against 36.6%, mostly because of that 49ers defense. The case is that Bijan gets every big carry in Atlanta, his red-zone work comes in bunches, and the backs who do break through against San Francisco tend to score twice. The risk is another game script like last week. Small bet.

Bijan Robinson on the board

3. Christian McCaffrey 2+ Touchdowns Over 1.5

SF vs ATL·+235 @ BetRiversFADE

Model 29% vs market 33%

Same game, other side. San Francisco is a 2.5-point road favorite implied for 26.2 points, and our projection has the 49ers winning 26.1 to 23.8. The injury report helps him: Deebo Samuel Sr. is out with a hamstring injury and Mike Evans is questionable with an Achilles injury, which takes two red-zone targets off the field. McCaffrey has 35.8% of the 49ers' red-zone chances this season and 55% of their chances inside the 5, and he gets them as a runner and a receiver.

Atlanta has been leaking touchdowns to running backs. The Falcons have allowed 6 rushing touchdowns in 6 games, opponents have scored on 16 of 27 red-zone trips (59.3%) and 11 of 13 trips inside the 5, and two backs have already scored twice on them this season: Alvin Kamara on just 7 carries in Week 4, and D'Andre Swift on 16 carries last week. Since 2025, a player has scored twice on Atlanta in 8 of 23 games, the most of any defense on this card, and 4 of the 8 were running backs. One of them was McCaffrey.

That is the head-to-head: when these teams met last October, McCaffrey had 24 carries, 6 red-zone looks, and 2 touchdowns. This season he has scored in 5 of 6 games and scored twice in 2 of them, including last week against Washington (16 carries, 10 targets, 7 red-zone looks). Since 2023, when he scores, he scores again 37% of the time (11 of 30 games). The min/max read: he averages 13 carries, and the most a lead back has gotten against Atlanta this year is 25 (Derrick Henry). In his games with 13 to 25 carries since 2023, he scored twice in 8 of 32. With 6 or more red-zone looks, it is 7 of 15.

The model fades it, 29.4% against 32.5%. The risk is that his carries have been light this season (10 to 16 a game), so he needs the red-zone work to find him again. The case is a defense that has let two backs score twice in three weeks, two receivers off the field, and a back who did exactly this to Atlanta last year.

Christian McCaffrey on the board

4. Derrick Henry 2+ Touchdowns Over 1.5

BAL vs CIN·+275 @ BetRiversPASS

Model 29% vs market 30%

The books have this close: a 49 total, with Baltimore a 1.5-point home favorite implied for 25.2. Our projection likes the Ravens a little more, 26 to 23.8. Expect about 63 degrees in Baltimore with almost no wind and no rain. The injury that matters is Lamar Jackson, questionable with an ankle injury. Near the goal line, this offense runs through Henry either way: he has 53.1% of the Ravens' red-zone chances this season and 59.3% of their chances inside the 5.

Cincinnati is better in the red zone than its reputation. The Bengals have allowed 5 rushing touchdowns in 5 games, but opponents have scored on only 10 of 21 red-zone trips (47.6%), the best rate of any defense on this card. Nobody has scored twice on them this season. Last year was a different story: since 2025, a player has scored twice on Cincinnati in 6 of 22 games, and 4 of the 6 were running backs (Jordan Mason, Josh Jacobs, Breece Hall, and Kenneth Gainwell).

Henry has scored in 5 of 6 games this season and scored twice in 2 of them: 3 touchdowns against Indianapolis in Week 1 and 2 against Dallas in Week 3 on 26 carries and 9 red-zone carries. Since 2023, when he scores, he scores again 42% of the time (15 of 36 games), double the average back. The min/max read works a little differently here: he averages 22 carries, more than any lead back has gotten against Cincinnati this year (18), so I counted his games with 18 or more carries. Since 2023, he scored twice in 14 of 32 (44%). With 6 or more red-zone looks, it is 6 of 8. Against the Bengals, he has scored in 4 of 5 games since 2023, but only once each time.

The model calls it a pass, 28.8% against 30.3%, so the price is about fair. The risks are the Bengals' red-zone defense and Lamar's ankle. The case is the volume: he gets more carries than anyone this defense has faced, and when he gets the work, he scores twice almost half the time.

Derrick Henry on the board

5. Javonte Williams 2+ Touchdowns Over 1.5

DAL vs PHI·+360 @ FanDuelPASS

Model 24% vs market 24%

This one is Monday night. Dallas is a 4-point road favorite in a 44 total, implied for 24 points, and our projection has it Cowboys 23.6, Eagles 20.9. The forecast in Philadelphia is about 61 degrees with light wind and no rain. George Pickens is questionable with a shoulder injury. Javonte has 38.6% of the Cowboys' red-zone chances this season and 55.6% of their chances inside the 5.

Philadelphia has allowed 8 rushing touchdowns in 6 games, and opponents have scored on 16 of 25 red-zone trips (64%). Lead backs have found the end zone against them: Kyren Williams scored twice on 16 carries in Week 4, Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored, and Chuba Hubbard ran 28 times for 120 yards and a touchdown last week. Since 2025, a player has scored twice on the Eagles in 7 of 23 games, and Javonte is one of them.

That is the head-to-head: in Week 1 last year he scored twice on 15 carries against Philadelphia (he was shut out in the rematch on 20 carries). This season he has scored in 5 of 6 games and scored twice in 2: 2 touchdowns against the Giants in Week 1 and 3 against Houston in Week 4 on 19 carries and 8 red-zone carries. His repeat profile is the lowest on the card: since 2023, he has scored twice in 6 of his 23 scoring games (26%), a little above the running back average. The min/max read: he averages 14 carries, and the most a lead back has gotten against Philadelphia this year is 28 (Hubbard). In his games with 14 to 28 carries since 2023, he scored twice in 4 of 22.

The model calls it a pass, 23.9% against 24.3%, basically even with the market. This is the long shot of the card: the lowest repeat profile and the lowest total. But he scores almost every week, he owns the goal line in Dallas, and he has already done this to this defense. Smallest bet on the card.

Javonte Williams on the board

Like these picks? Get the whole board.

These picks come straight off the Propaholics board. Unlock our model's odds, edge, and verdict on every NFL player prop, plus TD matchups, projections, and the daily report.

Start your free 7-day trial

Then $15/mo or $110/yr. Cancel anytime.

Why 2+ TD bets are small bets

A 2+ touchdown bet only cashes if a player scores twice, and even the best goal-line backs do that in a minority of games. That is why the odds are long. Treat these as small bets, a fraction of a normal unit, and expect most weeks to miss. One hit at these prices covers a lot of misses, like Walker did last week. New to touchdown bets? Start here: What Is an Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet?

Follow us and tag your slips

First, give us a follow: @PropaholicsApp on X and @propaholicsapp on Instagram. That is where the picks, the results, and the model notes go out all week.

Then tag us on your bet slip. Let me know if you are tailing any of these, and tag us just the same if you are fading one, because I genuinely want to hear the other side of every pick.

If you are on the free plan or do not have an account yet, start your 7-day free trial to unlock the full board, including the 2+ TDs market and the model's number on every player.

FAQ

What is a 2+ touchdown bet?

A 2+ touchdown bet wins if your player scores two or more touchdowns in the game, rushing or receiving. Passing touchdowns do not count. It is also listed as Over 1.5 touchdowns at most sportsbooks.

How does a 2+ touchdown bet pay?

The odds are long, often +150 to +1500, because scoring twice is rare. A small stake can pay several times over, which is why these are treated as small bets.

Why does the model grade 2+ TDs differently?

It is a low-probability market, so a few percentage points matter more than they do on an anytime TD. The model compares its number to the market on every card, and I show both, including where I overrule it.

How are these 2+ touchdown picks chosen?

This week, from the five players my model gives the highest chance to score twice, run through my 9-step process. The key reads are goal-line role, the player's repeat profile, the defense's red-zone touchdown rate, and the team total.

Keep going

About the author

J.B. Wright

Founder of Propaholics, builder of the prop model. Picks on Propaholics are graded honestly and tracked every week, so you can judge the model for yourself. See the full model track record.

Propaholics model-driven MLB & NFL prop picks.