My 5 Favorite NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 6 (Five Model Fades)

QB note first: Caleb Williams is doubtful. If he sits, Case Keenum starts. Keenum also started Weeks 3 and 5, so the two have played together, but Loveland did not score in either game (4 targets in Week 3, 5 in Week 5). Check the Bears' starter before you bet this one.

The model has him at 23.1% against a 35.7% market, and I get why. Loveland is still looking for his first touchdown of the season, and his volume has been all over the place: 2, 3, 4, 9, and 5 targets. He has had a red-zone look in 4 of 5 games, though, and last season he scored in 5 of 16, 6 touchdowns. This is his first game against Atlanta. Honestly, this one is a he's-due play, and the matchup is why I think this is the week.

Atlanta is handing tight ends volume this year: 8.4 targets a game to the position (it was 6.0 last year) and 11 red-zone targets, 2nd most in the league. The Falcons have only allowed 3 touchdowns to tight ends, but look at how they happened. Pat Freiermuth scored in Week 1 on 5 targets with 2 in the red zone. Darren Waller scored twice in Week 2 on 3 targets, 2 of them in the red zone. Both cashed on 2 red-zone looks, and that is the exact trigger I watch for Loveland: when he gets 5 or more targets with 2 or more in the red zone, he has scored in 3 of 5 games since he came into the league. It is not automatic. Mark Andrews saw 3 red-zone targets in Week 5 and did not score.

Alignment is the last piece. Atlanta has allowed 4 touchdowns to players lined up wide, 2 from the slot, and 2 inline this year. Loveland lines up everywhere (29% wide, 35% slot, 34% inline), and last year he scored from all three: 1 wide, 2 from the slot, and 3 inline. There is no spot the Falcons can hide him. The risks are the quarterback and the fact that he has not broken through yet. Smallest bet on this card.

The model fades him at 21% against a 35.1% market, mostly because the Jets are implied for only 18.2 points. I see a WR1 who has scored in 3 of 5 games this season (Green Bay, Detroit, and Cleveland), with a last 10 of 6 for 10. Last year he scored in 4 of his 7 games. Against New England he is 1 for 4 since 2023, and the one score came on 9 targets and 2 red-zone looks.

New England has been giving it up to WR1s. Three of the five WR1s they have faced scored: Jaxon Smith-Njigba went 8 for 122 and a touchdown on 11 targets, Jakobi Meyers went 7 for 64 and a score, and Keon Coleman went 6 for 116 and a score. The bigger change is in the red zone. Last year the Patriots allowed just 1.6 red-zone targets a game to receivers, 5th fewest. This year it is 3.6, 6th most. Wilson runs 76% of his routes out wide, and New England has allowed 4 touchdowns to receivers lined up wide, 10th most. He has also done more of his scoring against man (3 touchdowns on 22 targets) than zone (1 on 38), and the Patriots play man about 31% of the time.

The min/max read is one of the best on this list: Wilson averages 9 targets, and the most a WR1 has gotten against New England this year is 11 (Smith-Njigba). In his last 10 games with 9 to 11 targets, he scored in 6 (60%). The market only says 35.1%. When he gets 9 or more targets with a red-zone look, he has scored in 7 of his last 10. The game script helps too: if the Jets are down, they are throwing, and with Hall and Mitchell out there are not many other places for the ball to go. He saw 11 targets last week. The risk is the low team total and his light red-zone work (0.6 looks a game). I like this one.

The model fades the price, 54.5% against a 62.3% market. Puka has scored in 2 of his 3 games this season on 9, 12, and 24 targets, and his last 10 is 6 for 10. Last year he scored in 9 of 16 games, 11 touchdowns. Against Arizona he is 2 for 5 since 2023, and both scores came last season: 2 touchdowns on 11 targets in Week 14, then another on 11 targets and 3 red-zone looks in Week 18.

Arizona has been the softest defense in the league for WR1s. The Cardinals have allowed 6 touchdowns to WR1s in 5 games, the most in the NFL (last year they allowed 6 all season). Three of the five WR1s they have faced scored: Jaxon Smith-Njigba went 9 for 155 and 3 touchdowns on 11 targets, Malik Nabers went 6 for 112 and a touchdown on 7 targets, and Jameson Williams scored twice on 4 targets. Arizona plays zone 72% of the time, and Puka has 6 touchdowns on 113 targets against zone. He runs 75% of his routes out wide and 25% from the slot, and Arizona ranks 2nd in touchdowns allowed from both spots.

The trigger I care about for Puka is 10 or more targets with at least one red-zone look. He has hit that in 5 of his last 10 games and scored in 4 of them. Over his last 20 it is 6 for 8, and since 2023 it is 9 for 14 (64%), right in line with the market's 62.3%. The 10 targets should be there: he is averaging 15 a game this year, and the busiest WR1 Arizona has faced got 11 (Smith-Njigba). The red-zone look is the part to watch. His share is the question (11.5% of the Rams' red-zone chances, third behind Kyren and Adams). I am on him for the volume and the matchup, but at -155 this is not the value play in this game.

The model fades him hard, 16.3% against a 37% market, and his own numbers are thin. Kincaid has scored once in 5 games (Week 2 against Detroit, on 8 targets), and his targets have faded since: 3, 2, and 3 the last three weeks. His last 10 is 2 for 10. Last year he scored in 5 of 12 games. He has played the Raiders once since 2023, with 6 targets and 2 red-zone looks and no score.

This is a matchup pick, and the matchup is a good one. The Raiders have allowed 6 touchdowns to tight ends in 5 games, 3rd most in the league, after ranking 17th last year. They give up 2 red-zone targets a game to the position, 6th most (last year it was 1.1). Juwan Johnson went 8 for 53 and 2 touchdowns on 8 targets in Week 3, and Hunter Henry scored on 3 red-zone looks in Week 5. Las Vegas plays zone 80% of the time, and Kincaid has 3 touchdowns on 31 targets against zone.

Alignment is where this one clicks. The Raiders have allowed 3 touchdowns to players lined up inline and 3 from the slot this year. Kincaid splits his time between those two spots (42% inline, 38% slot), and the slot is where he scores: all 5 of his touchdowns last year came from there, and so did his one this season.

The min/max read: Kincaid averages 4 targets, and the most a TE1 has gotten against Las Vegas this year is 8 (Johnson). In his last 10 games with 4 to 8 targets, he scored in 5 (50%). Over his last 20, it is 7 (35%), close to the market's 37%. When he gets 4 or more targets and a red-zone look, he has scored in 7 of 17 games since 2023. The risk is the role: he has 3.7% of the Bills' red-zone chances. With Moore and Palmer questionable, there could be more looks for him near the goal line. Small bet on the matchup.

This is one of the model's biggest disagreements with me: 26.6% against a 46.1% market. Watson has scored in 4 of 5 games this season, 6 touchdowns, and his last 10 is 7 for 10. He does not need goal-line work to cash, either: his 2 touchdowns in Week 5 came on 8 targets and zero red-zone looks. The model is still weighting last season, when he scored in 4 of 10 games. This is his first game against Dallas.

Dallas gave up 26 touchdowns to receivers last season, the most in the NFL, and 14 of them went to WR1s, also the most. This year they have allowed 3 to WR1s. Nico Collins went 7 for 118 and 2 touchdowns on 8 targets in Week 4, and Emeka Egbuka went 6 for 38 and a touchdown on 9 targets and 3 red-zone looks in Week 5. Dallas plays zone about 75% of the time, and Watson has 3 touchdowns against zone and 3 against man, so he scores either way.

The alignment is the interesting part. Watson runs 72% of his routes out wide, but 5 of his 6 touchdowns this year have come from the slot and 1 from out wide. Dallas has allowed 3 touchdowns from the slot and 4 out wide this year, so both of his spots are open. Last year it was worse: 18 touchdowns to receivers lined up wide (2nd most) and 12 from the slot (5th most).

The min/max read: Watson averages 8 targets, and the most a WR1 has gotten against Dallas this year is 9 (Egbuka). In his games with 8 to 9 targets, he scored in 3 of 5 (60%). The market says 46.1%, but that is only 5 games. When he gets 8 or more targets with a red-zone look, he has scored in 4 of 6. He also has 23.1% of the Packers' chances inside the 5 this season. I am going with what he is doing this year.