My 5 Favorite NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 4 (One Smash, Four Model Fades)

This is the one pick where the model and I are locked in, and it grades a SMASH: 41% to score against the 33% the market is pricing. Henderson has found the end zone in 1 of 2 games (he sat out the opener against Seattle) and scored the one time he has faced Buffalo.

On paper the Bills read like a Rhamondre Stevenson spot. They have allowed 5 touchdowns to running backs, but only 1 to a clear RB2, which ranks them 3rd, and they finished 3rd against the position a year ago too. The usage flips that read: when Henderson is on the field, Stevenson's carries drop and Henderson becomes the bell cow.

The volume backs it up. Buffalo is allowing nearly 5 red-zone attempts a game, and Henderson averages 2.1 red-zone carries, which puts him in the top 14% of backs in red-zone usage. The Bills also give up about a touchdown and two red-zone targets a game to the backfield, so Henderson has more than one way in, on the ground or through the air. With running backs being Buffalo's weak spot, this is my highest-confidence play on the board.

The model hates the price here, 11% against a market near 28%, so it gets a FADE badge. I am on it anyway. We saw in Week 1 how the Giants want to use Likely: 8 targets, 78 yards, and 2 touchdowns. That was with Jaxson Dart under center. Dart is hurt now and Jameis Winston has the offense, which quieted Likely's scoring, but the volume never left: 10 targets against the Rams and 5 against Tennessee.

The matchup is why I overrule the number. Arizona has only allowed 2 touchdowns to tight ends this year, both to George Kittle, but a year ago they ranked 4th worst against the position, surrendering 11 scores to opposing top tight ends. They also play zone on roughly 82% of snaps, a top-10 rate, and in a small sample Likely has been targeted most against zone. He is the Giants' second most-targeted player in the end zone, behind only Cam Skattebo.

Alignment seals it for me. Arizona has given up touchdowns from the wide, slot, and inline spots, most of them from out wide. Likely is an athletic tight end who runs 76% of his routes from the slot, and he already has a touchdown from both the wide and the slot alignment this year. The volume, the coverage menu, and the alignment all point at him finding the end zone.

Another FADE on the model's card, 26% to the market's 38%, that I am taking. Warren has scored in 2 of 3 games and I do not see it slowing down. He is the second most-targeted Colt and sits 4th in red-zone share at 11%, right in the mix with Josh Downs (14%) and Keenan Allen (11%), and his target volume has climbed: 5, then 7, then 10.

Washington is the reason I am here. They are #1 in touchdowns allowed to tight ends with 4 already, and they are surrendering about 3 red-zone attempts a game to the position. In the two games Warren has drawn at least one red-zone target, he has scored both times. Washington is also #1 in touchdowns allowed to both the wide and the slot alignment this year. Warren lines up inline most, but he already has a touchdown from the slot and one from out wide.

With Alec Pierce out, there is even more room for Warren to work. I normally fade the morning and international kickoffs because they can play out janky, but the volume plus the matchup is too clean to pass here. I truly see value in Warren on this one.

The biggest gap on my card between the model and me: it prices Parker Washington at 23% against a 41% market, so it wants no part of this price. I do. He has 2 touchdowns in 3 games, is 1 for 2 against Cincinnati in his career, and he is stepping into the WR1 role and proving he belongs in every way.

The Bengals have allowed 3 touchdowns to receivers, only one to a true WR1, and I think Washington adds to that total Sunday. They have given up 2 scores to the slot already and ranked 3rd worst there last year, surrendering 13 slot touchdowns. Washington runs about 40% of his routes from the slot and already has 2 touchdowns from it this season.

Coverage and route profile back the bet. Cincinnati plays man at the 5th-highest rate in the league, and Washington is targeted most against man while running an elite 3.5 yards per route run. He is not one-dimensional either: against zone he is the most-targeted player on the Jaguars with an elite 3.6 yards per route run, so he beats whichever look Cincinnati shows him. Two of the three touchdowns the Bengals have allowed this year came on deep passes, and Washington is a deep threat. I expect him to catch one in the end zone.

I sat on this one a long time, honestly torn between Pickens and CeeDee Lamb against Houston. The model lands on a FADE, 32% to a 37% market, a smaller gap than my other lays. Pickens has not scored yet this year. He also did not score against the Texans in 2023, but he was not a Cowboy then, so I am not giving that much weight.

Houston has allowed 5 touchdowns to receivers, most of them to the opposing WR1, and roughly 2 a game to the position. Yes, that screams CeeDee Lamb, but stick with me: I expect Lamb to draw Derek Stingley Jr for a big chunk of the game, which opens the door for Pickens to make the big play.

The alignment is the edge. Houston has given up 4 touchdowns to the wide alignment, and Pickens runs 94% of his routes out wide, where he scored 8 times a year ago. He is off to a slow start, but last season against top-10 receiver defenses, with Lamb drawing coverage alongside him, Pickens went 3 for 3 finding the end zone when he saw 7 or more targets. I think this is one of those games.