My 5 Favorite NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 3 (Where I Fade My Own Model)

The one pick where the model and I agree. It grades Jonathan Taylor a LEAN at 65% to score against Houston, a touch above the 60% the market is charging, and I think even that undersells him. He has scored twice in each of his first two games and is a true bell cow the market keeps disrespecting.

Taylor owns Indianapolis inside the numbers: 47% of the team's red-zone opportunities inside the 20 and 55% inside the 5. Outside of Tyler Warren I do not trust anyone else on this offense near the goal line. He also does his damage on the right side, which is where Houston gave up the most rushing touchdowns last year and again so far this year, and he is 3 for 5 against the Texans for scores. As long as he clears 18 carries with a few red-zone rush attempts, I think he finds the end zone, and he could easily get there twice again.

This is my headliner even though the model tags it a fade, pricing JSMN at 40% while the market has him at 50%. On the number the model wants no part of the price. I do. He already has 4 touchdowns this year, three of them last week against Arizona, and he is the undisputed alpha in Seattle: 11 targets in each of the first two games with no sign Drew Lock is looking anywhere else.

The matchup is why I am comfortable overriding the number. Washington plays a ton of two-high safety and two-high zone, and JSMN has been the most-targeted receiver against both looks. He scored 7 of his touchdowns against zone last year versus just 3 against man, so this is his best coverage menu. Add that the Commanders have already surrendered 3 touchdowns to wide receivers, mostly from the alignment JSMN runs most of his routes out of, and the volume plus the spot is enough for me. The model says fade. For me it is a must-play.

Another one the model wants to fade, pricing Higgins at 26% against a market number of 34%, and another one I am taking anyway. Higgins owns this matchup: he is 4 for 5 finding the end zone head-to-head against Pittsburgh. He has not scored yet this year, but I think that changes Sunday.

The read is volume and direction. Cincinnati is pass-heavy with Joe Burrow back under center, and I expect Pittsburgh to pour its attention into stopping Ja'Marr Chase, which frees Higgins up. Last year the Steelers allowed 14 receiving touchdowns to the right side of their defense, and Higgins scored 7 of his from that direction versus 4 on the left. When he has seen 6-plus targets with at least one red-zone look, he has cashed 7 of 9 times. The Steelers have kept receivers out of the end zone so far, with only backs scoring on them, which is exactly why the model is cautious. I will bet the profile over two weeks of defensive noise.

This is my biggest disagreement with the model, and I will be upfront about it: it prices Evans at just 17% against the 40% the market implies, a 23-point gap, largely because his usage cratered in Week 2. That is the risk, and it is real. This is a health-and-role bet.

Here is why I am still on it. Arizona has already allowed 4 touchdowns to opposing number-one receivers, two from a wide alignment and two from the slot, and they are conceding roughly 17 targets a game to the wide spot against just 6 in the slot. Guess who runs the most wide routes in San Francisco right now: Mike Evans. In Week 1 against the Rams he saw 7 targets and 2 red-zone looks; that dropped to 3 targets and no red-zone looks against Miami in Week 2. If the volume bounces back, and I think it does in this spot, he scores. He is 3 for 5 when he gets 7-plus targets with a red-zone look, and 14 of 19 over his last 20 such games. It comes down to whether he is healthy and ready to go.

The longest shot of my five and the one the model likes least: 11% on its number against 40% in the market. I am leaning on a banged-up Detroit secondary to close that gap. The Lions are dealing with real injuries in the back end, with Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph out and DJ Reed questionable after getting hurt in Week 2 against Buffalo.

Geno Smith, now under center for the Jets, has historically carved the Lions up, averaging 313 yards and better than a touchdown a game against them, and I do not see the new-team change altering that. Detroit gets attacked most from the wide alignment: they have already allowed 2 touchdowns there and gave up the third-most wide-alignment scores in the league last season. Their weak side is the right, and that is where Wilson lines up Sunday. If the volume and a couple of red-zone targets are there, a touchdown is very live despite the model's low number.